BTC (Bitcoin)
BTC's current price is around 93,700, and breaking through this key support level will likely lead to a further drop to the 91,700-90,000 range.
91,700 was an important support level previously. If it was quickly breached yesterday, the market might experience a V-shaped reversal, but this rapid reversal is likely to be short-lived. It's more probable that the price will temporarily stabilize around 94,000, but this is insufficient to change the overall correction trend.
We can divide the 91,700 to 97,800 range into three boxes: the upper edge of the lower box is at 93,700, while the upper edge of the middle box is at 95,700. Given the current bearish market trend, when the price rebounds to 95,700, one can consider continuing to short.
ETH (Ethereum)
Ethereum has been sluggish recently, oscillating in the 1750-1850 range.
Wednesday's Prague upgrade is crucial. If it disappoints and fails to break 1850, or drops below the box to 1700, I've shorted ETH at high levels, currently building a position with 2x long-term. If it continues to rise after the upgrade, I'll cut losses, which means the positive news has been fully priced in.
Short-term price has slightly increased long-side liquidity around 93000 after beginning to retrace on Monday (white arrow in the chart);
However, I still believe the market's quick shift to a bearish sentiment won't be realized so soon, as there are three obvious long-side liquidity gaps below the current price (white rectangles in the chart);
Therefore, the current market seems to be waiting for this week's FOMC meeting, with a high probability of continued range-bound oscillation; if the FOMC meeting at 2 AM on Thursday shows a hawkish or dovish attitude, a breakout or breakdown of this range would seem quite natural...
After all, whether moving up or down, futures market liquidity is somewhat insufficient, with upside short-side liquidity practically non-existent, and most short positions likely closed before liquidation;
While new long-side liquidity below is also scarce, not to mention the three obvious gaps... Therefore, allowing the price to oscillate for two more days and continue accumulating futures liquidity before leaving the range can ensure sustainability whether rising or falling;
The current situation doesn't make me very confident about shorting. I still feel this oscillation will last longer than expected.
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