QCP: The crypto market is stagnant, and foreign exchange may become the signal for the next round of macro storm

QCP analysis points out that the implied volatility in the crypto market remains sluggish, with short-term option skew returning to neutral, and spot prices lacking a clear direction. Meanwhile, gold rose nearly 3% this week, reflecting the market's increasing pricing of the US dollar's weakness and geopolitical uncertainty. Going forward, the market may face two distinctly different trends: first, a sudden volatility shock that could decouple Bitcoin from gold's safe-haven correlation and reconnect it with risk assets; second, trade factors becoming the dominant logic, with strong Asian-Pacific currencies enhancing regional bargaining power and catalyzing global fund reallocation. At a time when correlations between assets are gradually loosening, the foreign exchange market may once again become a harbinger of macro risk evolution.