Master's Hot Topic Discussion:
Let's talk about the current market today, which can be understood as a big gambling arena where everyone is betting on whether the US economy will completely collapse and if rate cuts will come to the rescue. If the US economy really fails, rate cuts will definitely follow.
This is why many people now think the market will crash downward. The trend seems to favor the short side, but going short for medium to long-term is not simple.
In the current market, there might be a big rally before an actual crash, rising near the previous high and wiping out short positions completely before dropping.
Recalling last Friday, BTC rose from 97.5 to 97.8k. Just 300 points, but few dared to go short. Why? Because the previous bulldozer-like rise of 1000-2000 points gradually broke many people's fantasy that 95k was the top.
Trading plans were completely disrupted, causing panic. Who would dare to act rashly? Most people are highly leveraged and fully positioned, unable to withstand 98-99k levels, either wildly guessing the top in a narrow 100U range or stopping loss and rolling away, no different from gambling.
Yesterday's article also analyzed that around 92.8k is a good support crossover position, with good chances to close short and open long. But when actually reaching there, longs might think: let's wait until 88k, while shorts might think: let's wait until 95k rebounds.
In this hesitant process, opportunities are lost. So to be stable, one can only do high-probability trades in large ranges, stop messing around. Endure loneliness to harvest, otherwise you're just making trouble for yourself.
Back to BTC, currently oscillating in the lower-middle band of the 12-hour chart, the 4-8 hour downtrend has stopped. Early 1-hour cycles hardened, rising to around 95.1k in the 12-hour Bollinger middle band before being pressed down.
The daily line is indeed a death cross, but the short-term 12-hour adjustment is not over. The 93.3k support is temporarily strong, and longs haven't completely collapsed.
The Fed's monetary policy meeting tomorrow night will definitely cause some movement, so reduce positions and leverage in the next two days, don't court death.
Master's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance: 95400
Second Resistance: 94700
Support Levels Reference:
First Support: 93500-93800
Second Support: 92800
Today's Recommendation:
Currently, BTC remains in a downward trend, with short-term fluctuations following the trend line. If a rebound occurs and breaks the downward trend line, pay attention to whether prices stabilize in the 94.5-94.7k range.
Yesterday's first support at 93.5-93.8k is a key short-term support zone, which was a previous low point. If this breaks, the downward trend will intensify.
Currently, prices are temporarily holding the 93.5-93.8k range, which can be seen as a good risk-reward area. While there's a chance of rebound, buying power is insufficient, so rebounds will be short-lived.
5.6 Master's Swing Trading Setup:
Long Entry Reference: 92000-92800 range, batch entry, Target: 93800-94700
Short Entry Reference: 95400-96000 range, batch entry, Target: 93800-92800
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