Recently, discussions about the United States potentially expanding its BTC strategic reserves have been widespread, especially with the report requested by President Trump expected to be submitted this week, sparking widespread speculation.
However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes poured cold water on this. In a recent interview, he directly stated that due to continuously expanding national debt and BTC's specific social image, the possibility of the US government actively purchasing large amounts of BTC in the open market is extremely slim.
National Fiscal Pressure Difficult to Sustain BTC Purchase
Hayes believes that as a typical "deficit country", the increasingly severe fiscal situation of the United States constrains the possibility of actively purchasing large amounts of BTC.
He pointed out that population aging leading to increased social welfare expenses, consistently high defense spending, and continuously rising national debt interest due to the high-interest environment have caused the US national debt to exceed 34 trillion dollars, with the fiscal deficit showing structural expansion.
Under such massive fiscal pressure, he believes the government would find it difficult to use large amounts of funds to purchase BTC in the open market, and this expenditure would be hard to rationalize to taxpayers and the public.
However, facing massive debt, Hayes expects the US Treasury will have to issue more national debt to raise funds. To ensure these bonds can be absorbed by the market, the Treasury might even seek regulatory relaxation, such as allowing banks to be exempt from capital requirements for national debt to encourage banks and other institutions to purchase their debt.
He emphasized that this potential liquidity injection, while not traditional quantitative easing (QE), would actually be more beneficial to risk assets like BTC, rather than the government directly purchasing BTC to boost the market.
Social Image and Political Resistance: Who Wants to Stand with 'BTC'?
Beyond economic considerations, Hayes also highlighted significant social and political obstacles. He described how some BTC investors are often viewed as "Bitcoin Bros" with a specific social image, questioning whether any "legitimately elected" government official would be willing to take political risks by associating government policy or asset allocation with this potentially controversial image.
In public debates about fiscal responsibility, government use of "printed" funds, such as purchasing BTC by raising funds through national debt, would face enormous political resistance, making it an extremely unpopular policy.
Hayes pointed out that the nearly 200,000 BTC currently held by the US government primarily comes from assets seized during criminal investigations, such as the famous Silk Road Dark Web case and the Bitfinex hacking theft case, not market purchases.
He believes that without such asset seizures, the possibility of the US government significantly expanding its BTC reserves through open market purchases is extremely low.
Market's Different Voices and Future Outlook
Although Hayes is reserved about the US actively purchasing large amounts of BTC, different perspectives and predictions still exist in the market. Some cryptocurrency community members believe that any form of "strategic reserve" action by the US government, even if purely symbolic, could send a strong signal to other global countries, potentially triggering a wave of BTC purchases by global central banks or sovereign wealth funds.
For example, BTC reserve initiatives being launched across various US states (although the Arizona governor recently vetoed the BTC reserve bill passed in the third reading this week, breaking the first state to include BTC in official reserves)
Additionally, some perspectives suggest that the US government might collect funds by selling seized alternative coins (Altcoins) and then use these funds to purchase BTC, achieving a fiscally neutral purchase and reducing direct use of treasury funds.
However, despite being reserved about whether the US government will purchase large amounts of BTC, Hayes still expects BTC prices might reach $250,000 by the end of 2025 and reach a bull market peak in 2026-2027, ultimately touching $1 million in 2028.
