Source: Talking about Li and other things
Many people are still leaving messages asking whether the bull market is here. To answer this question, we still use the same question from the previous article: Have you ever seen a bear market with Bitcoin at $90,000? In other words, if you think that the current Bitcoin price is $95,000, the market is already in a bear market, then what do you think the so-called bull market price should be?
Regardless of whether it is the so-called bull market or the bear market, the buying and selling of Bitcoin will never disappear. The only difference in this market is that some people pursue short-term gains, some pursue long-term gains, and some people simply do not understand what they are trading.
Since Bitcoin rebounded to around $94,700 (the Fibonacci 0.236 position) last month (around April 22), it has been trading sideways for more than 10 days. Judging from the Bitcoin balance on exchanges, Bitcoin has once again experienced a relatively obvious rapid inflow followed by a continuous outflow, as shown in the figure below.
In addition, we can also see from the above figure that when Bitcoin fell from its historical high of $109,000 on January 20 this year to around $99,000 on February 5, the exchange's Bitcoin balance also experienced a relatively obvious inflow, and then the Bitcoin price experienced nearly 20 days of sideways consolidation.
But the difference is that last time Bitcoin was still in a phased downward trend at the daily level, while this time it is in a phased upward trend at the daily level. At the same time, because there are many important meetings and data to be released in May, including the FOMC meeting on May 7 (Eastern Time), the SEC's crypto roundtable meeting on May 12, the CPI data on May 13, the retail sales data on May 15, etc., we may continue to face short-term fluctuations in the next 1-2 weeks.
If we look at it from a longer-term level, such as the weekly level, if no new black swan events occur, we may really be able to see Bitcoin break through its historical high again in the second quarter of this year.
Of course, because the overall macroeconomic situation has not undergone any fundamental changes, we should not be too optimistic about this. That is, we should not continue to shout for $150,000, $200,000, or even $1 million just because we see that Bitcoin may rise... Just like many people saw that Bitcoin fell in the past two months and directly shouted $50,000 or $40,000.
Theoretically speaking, even if Bitcoin has the opportunity to continue to break new highs in the second quarter of this year (May and June), it may not rise too much. We believe that it will most likely continue to remain in a new high range and enter a period of volatile market, unless there are relatively large new positive driving stimuli in policy factors or macro data (mainly in the United States).
We mentioned the changing data of the exchange’s Bitcoin balance above. Since the overall exchange balance is decreasing, it means that some people/institutions are continuously hoarding Bitcoin, such as withdrawing Bitcoin from the exchange and putting it into cold wallets or other purposes. Judging from some current statistics on the chain, it seems that a large part of the Bitcoin has flowed into the institution’s custodial account, as shown in the figure below.
When it comes to institutions, BlackRock and Strategy are probably the first ones that come to mind. Here we take MicroStrategy as an example. According to their latest published data, as of April 28, 2025, MicroStrategy holds a total of 553,555 bitcoins, with an average fixed investment purchase cost of $68,478. As shown in the figure below.
MicroStrategy bought a total of 25,370 bitcoins in April this year, 29,089 bitcoins in March, 27,989 bitcoins in February, and 24,707 bitcoins in January...
At present, Bitcoin miners produce about 13,500 Bitcoins per month, which means that the current Bitcoin production does not seem to be able to meet the hoarding needs of an institution like MicroStrategy. If we look at this data from another angle, does it also mean that the continued hoarding of Bitcoin by various institutions will further compress the supply curve of Bitcoin, causing Bitcoin to fall into an "artificial" halving market, making Bitcoin more "scarce"?
Perhaps, one day in the future, the price of Bitcoin will no longer be restricted by the existing four-year halving law, or even by the crypto market, but will be determined by a superpower (currently the United States). But even if Bitcoin really reaches $1 million by then, it will not benefit most retail investors (but it will not affect most retail investors from chasing ups and downs), because ordinary retail investors will probably not have much Bitcoin left at that time.
Of course, the above are only things that may happen in the future under theoretical circumstances. No one can predict what will happen in the future. Many people still believe that Bitcoin will return to zero sooner or later. This is a matter of opinion.
The only advice we can give now is that as Bitcoin continues to be adopted from the bottom up (from retail investors to institutions, and then to countries), Bitcoin seems to have gradually changed from being driven by halving, retail investors, and the market to being driven by capital acceleration. We need to accept and adapt to this change in the rules of the game, try to ignore short-term prices, take a longer time period, and strive to hoard more Bitcoin without affecting the quality of your daily life. Even if it is only 1 Bitcoin, it may become one of your most important personal assets in the future.
Above we mainly discussed Bitcoin. At the end of the article, let’s briefly talk about Altcoin.
Nowadays, copycats often seem to play by completely different rules than historical ones, for example:
- The new coins listed on Binance fell sharply, but the coins that Binance announced to be delisted broke the historical high. For example, after the ALPACA was announced to be delisted, the price quickly soared nearly 12 times in three days. In this market, it seems that the boundary between good and bad is becoming more and more blurred. Some of the original judgment logic no longer seems to be applicable to the current market. Instead, it is replaced by the manipulation of human nature and various naked manipulations.
- Binance Alpha Points seem to have opened a new era for Altcoin. Now it seems that everyone is working hard to earn points, and Binance is also continuously supporting it through various activities (encouraging users to earn points). In the past, everyone would ask: Which 10x or 100x coin should I bet on now? Now they would ask: How many points do you have now? Did you eat the pork knuckle rice this time?
- Stablecoins continue to increase in issuance, and have now reached a record high of $241.9 billion, but the growth of the altcoin market value is not ideal. For example, during the 2020-2021 bull market, for every additional $1 in stablecoin issuance, the overall market value of Altcoin could increase by $8.3. But so far in the current bull market in 2024-2025, for every additional $1 in stablecoin issuance, the market value of Altcoin can only increase by $1.5.
- Celebrity coins have entered a new round of krypton gold gameplay (for example, front-row Trump token krypton gold players can have dinner with the US president), Japanese plump actresses have also joined the coin issuance game (I wonder if there will be some otaku meet-and-greet sessions in the future)...
In short, many things seem to be changing differently from the past, but there is one rule that seems to have not changed for the time being, that is, when Bitcoin begins to fluctuate at a high level, there will still be some new opportunities for Altcoin. For example, after Bitcoin achieved a phased price rebound a few days ago, many Altcoin under the AI concept have seen a general rise.
To sum up, the difference between the current so-called altcoin season and the so-called altcoin season in previous cycles is that almost all Altcoin had a chance to perform in the past, but now only a few Altcoin have a chance to perform. We have discussed this in our previous series of articles on the topic of altcoins. Interested parties can continue to search and review historical articles.
Since the beginning of this cycle, for most retail investors, there are more and more projects, more and more Altcoin, and more and more knowledge to learn, but the opportunities to make money are getting fewer and fewer (or getting harder and harder)... Maybe this is the more common reality problem at the moment.
But fewer opportunities does not mean no opportunities, and there are actually more opportunities in the crypto field than in other fields. It’s just that many people always want to pursue the "results" of others, while ignoring the "causes" of others, and this inversion of cause and effect often leads to failure or loss.
In fact, investment is not afraid of failure or loss, but afraid of not knowing it after failure and getting deeper and deeper into trouble. The strong never complain about the environment, because they are the ones who ruined the environment. As for us, as the weak, as long as we always maintain a strategy that suits us (the best strategy is often simple), keep recording and reflecting on our successes and failures (especially failures), and unify our thoughts and actions, when the strong eat meat and are full, we can just drink soup and quit.
It’s the same old saying. Try to stay focused according to your own risk preferences. There is no need to try to participate in and grasp all money-making opportunities in all projects or all ways of making money. There is basically no such thing in this field that is both simple and safe and can make a lot of money in the short term. As long as we try our best to persist in and do our best in the 1-2 things (sub-fields) that we have chosen or are best at (that is, be ahead of most other retail investors), it will be fine.
That’s all for today. The sources of the images/data cited in the text have been added to Notion. The above content is only personal opinion and analysis, and is only for learning records and communication purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice.
