Hot topics of Master Chat:
Last night's GDP and PCE data were quite shocking at first glance. The GDP in the first quarter fell by 0.3% year-on-year, far below expectations, and the PCE was ridiculously high, a complete recession + inflation scenario! Ordinarily, this data is scary enough, but the market fell slightly.
In fact, the market is not stupid. Although the data looks weak, it has not reached the point of confirming a recession, so it will not fall too much. In other words, the support below is still strong.
Moreover, Chuanzi has been actively promoting negotiations recently. As long as the uncertainty of tariffs and policies has not fully erupted, market sentiment will not be too bad.
Looking at the GDP data, it is a bit complicated. If we say it is bad news, it did fall by 0.3%, and the market fell with it; but it is not that bad to say that the US economy is very bad, consumption is still quite stable, up 3%, which is also on the average line.
There is nothing to pay attention to about the PCE data, but the U.S. wage and consumption data for March should be paid attention to. Wages have dropped, but consumption has increased. I have no money in my pocket but I have to hold on. How the hell can this be good?
If the unemployment rate in the US rises again tomorrow night, the economy will look even worse. However, as long as Sichuan does not make trouble, the financial reports this week are fine, and the market should be able to maintain recovery in the short term. The focus will be on the non-agricultural data tomorrow night.
Let's talk about the BTC again. Yesterday, the short position that the master buried in advance took 2,000 points, and 1,600 points more. The daily line has been sideways for eight or nine days. According to experience, it will generally change on the 10th or 11th day. There will be non-agricultural data tomorrow night, and the critical time has come! If it is good, it will directly rush to 98 to 100K.
If it is bearish, it will first fall to around 92.7k. If the rebound can recover above 94.6k, it will still be bullish. If it fails to recover and falls below 92k, it will turn bearish.
Therefore, you need to be prepared for the news. A second breakout of 95.7k will be a new high. Remember to defend 96k. It is simple to buy low and sell low, with a breakeven loss or a loss near 93.6k. If it falls below 93.6k, buy low at 93.3 to 92.8k.
The support near 9.3k is quite strong. If it falls below the middle track of the 12-hour Bollinger band, it will adjust at the daily level. If it pulls back to 92 to 90k, it will rebound and then the adjustment will end and go up. There is no top divergence on the daily line for the time being, so don't chase the short casually. Just short at highs in the short term.
Master looks at the trend:
Resistance level parameters:
First resistance level: 96000
Second resistance level: 95300
Support level reference:
First support level: 94300
Second support level: 93600
Today's suggestion:
Bitcoin fell sharply after the release of GDP data last night, but then formed a Double Botto pattern and entered a rebound phase. The reason for paying attention to the previous low point is that if the previous low point can be maintained when the price falls sharply, a Double Botto pattern will be formed, providing support for the subsequent rebound.
Bitcoin has tested the resistance level of 95.3k many times, but has never been able to break through, showing strong resistance. Once it successfully breaks through, it may rise rapidly in the short term.
If the first resistance is broken, the price can reach 96k in the short term. The 94 to 94.3k range is an important support level, which is also the 20, 60, 120 and 200 day moving average area. If the price holds these moving averages and starts to diverge after the moving averages overlap, the bull market will continue to open.
On the contrary, if the price falls below the first support, we need to pay attention to whether it can hold the 200-day moving average. If the price continues to hit new lows, there will be further adjustments. But even if there are adjustments, don't rush to be bearish. The focus is still on the previous lows and looking for ultra-short-term entry opportunities.
5.1 Master band pre-embedded:
Long entry reference: 93600-94300 range multiple targets in batches: 95300-96000
Short entry reference: 96000-95300 range short target in batches: 94300-93600
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