Master's Hot Topic Discussion:
With the May Day holiday approaching, big players in the A-share market might enter the market, and the main forces may aggressively pull stock prices along the trend. Therefore, as long as BTC's key support level remains unbroken, there is still room to surge upward.
Additionally, there is a monetary policy meeting in Japan tomorrow. If the result is no rate hike, BTC is likely to surge immediately. By the last day of the holiday on May 5th, especially in the late night, the main forces will definitely launch a surprise attack when everyone is exhausted.
It might even start as early as Sunday night on May 4th, all to pave the way for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting two days later. The market typically starts to fluctuate 1-2 days before the meeting, and when the US market opens on May 7th, it is expected to drop significantly.
Therefore, longs should not be too reckless; maintain low leverage and light positions. On May 8th, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, main forces usually flee 24 hours in advance to watch the show. Everyone has long anticipated no rate cut in May, which is not bad news, but the probability of a June rate cut is high. May might pre-emptively consume June's positive sentiment.
So the master advises against shorting at a single point; prolonged sideways movement can easily lead to unexpected changes. The last position must have a stop loss. Attempting to short in batches with light positions between 96.6k and 99.2k's new high point is still feasible.
Returning to BTC, the medium-term support remains strong and will not drop too severely. Although the 12-hour MACD has already formed a death cross, showing a clear downward trend, it is still far from the zero axis, with the 4 to 8-hour Bollinger Band lower rail providing support.
Therefore, a deep drop is only possible if it breaks below 92,700, which is a critical point. It bounced back 2,800 points when it retraced here the day before yesterday, and it is estimated to rebound again when touching this level short-term.
Now let's talk about Ethereum. Recently, it has rebounded strongly, but the master doesn't think this can be sustained, mainly because it lacks an independent compelling narrative. However, American wealthy investors are indeed buying ETH frantically. The master guesses this is mostly because BTC has risen, incidentally lifting ETH and its peers.
Although data from Monday shows ETH spot ETF net inflows are quite strong, with BlackRock buying over 37,000 coins, more than last Friday. Grayscale's Mini ETF is not to be outdone, adding over 5,000 ETH on Monday, with ETHE's recent sales being minimal.
However, the master still believes this ETH wave is riding BTC's momentum. If BTC cannot continue rising, ETH will also stall. Additionally, let's wait for tonight's US GDP data to see which way the wind blows.
Master's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: 96,000
Second Resistance: 95,300
Support Levels:
First Support: 94,000
Second Support: 93,400
Today's Recommendation:
BTC failed to stabilize above 95.5k yesterday. If retesting fails to stabilize, it may trigger disappointing sell-offs. Therefore, under the premise that 94K support is maintained, a conservative trading strategy is recommended.
The first resistance at 95.3K is a clear high point top. Breaking through 95K and stabilizing above 95.3K is necessary to expect further upward movement.
The first support at 94K is yesterday's closing downward K-line and the rebound starting point, which can be considered the current key low point. If 94K breaks, the short-term downward momentum will continue.
If the price breaks below the upward trend line and the 93.8k to 94k area, a short-term sharp drop may occur, with 93.4K potentially offering an ultra-short-term entry opportunity.
From the chart's trend, even with long bearish K-lines, BTC can quickly recover, indicating active buying pressure. With 94K and the upward trend line as lower support, a short-term long strategy is suggested while monitoring risk-reward ratio.
4.30 Master's Swing Trading Setup:
Long Entry Reference: 93,400-94,000 area in batches, Target: 95,300-96,000
Short Entry Reference: 95,300-96,000 area in batches, Target: 94,000-93,400
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