Written by: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise
Translated by: Luffy, Foresight News
Earlier this month, I delivered the closing speech on the first day of a nationwide brokerage conference.
This is noteworthy in itself. The four major brokerages (Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and UBS) manage assets of over $10 trillion, and these platforms have not yet allowed their advisors to easily access Bitcoin ETFs. However, as the theme of my invited speech suggested, this is changing rapidly.
In fact, I expect all four of these brokerages to launch Bitcoin ETF businesses by the end of this year. This is one of the reasons why I still anticipate that Bitcoin ETFs will set a new record in net inflows this year, despite only having net inflows of $3.7 billion so far in 2025, compared to $35 billion in 2024.
I'm not writing this article to discuss brokerage issues. Instead, I want to share a story about a listener.
What would I have left if everyone stops believing in Bitcoin?
The best part of a speech often comes at the end. You walk off the stage, hoping for applause, and are usually surrounded by a group of people wanting to ask follow-up questions. These questions are the best.
After this event, someone patiently waited until after twenty or thirty other people had asked their questions. Then, he said:
"I heard what you said, and it makes sense. But I just can't overcome my psychological barrier."
This is a very common emotion. People rationally understand and find the reasons for investing in Bitcoin attractive, but something always stops them from buying.
After delving into his concerns, we figured out what that "something" was: he was worried about what would happen to Bitcoin if everyone stopped believing in it.
"What would Bitcoin be worth if this 'music' stopped?" he asked.
The answer is, of course, nothing. If no one in the world wants to hold Bitcoin, then Bitcoin's value is zero.
I pointed out that gold and other assets are the same, but he insisted it was different. Perhaps he was right; with gold, you at least have that shiny physical object; but with Bitcoin, you really have nothing.
Honestly, I've had the same thought before, and I suspect most Bitcoin investors have too. Bitcoin's lack of physical form is indeed a challenge.
My suggestion: Write it down
As my new friend was about to leave, still with a conflicted expression, I asked him a simple question: What conditions would need to be met? In other words, how would he come to believe that Bitcoin would continue to exist?
For some people, their answer to this question makes them realize they will never buy Bitcoin. If you're waiting for Bitcoin to become more popular than gold... or for its volatility to approach zero... then you will never buy Bitcoin.
But if you don't have these hindering factors, it's worth seriously asking: What conditions would need to be met?
Is it institutional custody? Today, publicly traded companies like Coinbase and well-known institutions like Fidelity are custodying Bitcoin, with financial giants like Bank of New York Mellon following suit.
Is it institutional trading? Today, Bitwise is conducting crypto trading business with established companies like Jane Street and Cumberland/DRW.
Is it institutional adoption? Today, nine of the world's top ten hedge funds hold Bitcoin, along with Emory University (with a $11 billion endowment), the Texas Teachers Retirement System (managing $210 billion in assets), and investment titans like Ray Dalio and Stan Druckenmiller, among many other institutions.
Is it participation from large asset management companies? Are BlackRock and Invesco enough?
Is it corporate adoption? There's Stripe, Block, Tesla, and over eighty other public companies involved.
Is it accessibility? Bitcoin ETFs now exist.
Is it adoption in investment models? BlackRock now suggests investors allocate 2% of their portfolio to Bitcoin.
Is it regulatory stability? Legislation related to market structure is expected to pass in Congress this year.
Is it government adoption? The US is establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Whatever the condition, write it down. Because looking back a few years, some things we thought were unattainable, like the US government holding Bitcoin or the world's largest asset management companies accepting this asset, are now happening.
My friend thought for a moment, took a deep breath, and said: "I'm going to buy Bitcoin."
I think many people will come to the same conclusion this year.
