Last week (April 22 to April 28), BTC strongly decoupled from US stocks, achieving its largest weekly gain since Trump's election. BTC spot ETF inflows warmed up, with data showing net inflows of $381 million and $913 million on the 21st and 22nd, driving BTC prices to continuously climb and reach a recent high of $95,758.04, with a maximum weekly increase of 9.97%. Currently, BTC price is stable around $94,858. ETH price hit a low of $1,537.26 on the 22nd at 8:00 before rebounding, oscillating upward to $1,857.47, with a maximum weekly increase of 20.8%. Subsequently, prices consolidated, forming a strong support around $1,700, and currently stable near $1,819. (Data source: Binance Spot, April 29, 16:35)
Last week, US stock indices performed differently, with many investors watching the earnings reports of major tech stocks this week. As of the close on April 28, the S&P 500 rose for 5 consecutive trading days, the Nasdaq slightly declined, and the Dow Jones fell over 200 points in early trading but was supported by the end of the session. During Trump's second term's near-100-day period, the S&P index dropped nearly 8%, the worst presidential initial performance since Nixon in 1973.
Market Interpretation
Crypto Market Trend Reversal Signal, Short-term Funding Opportunities Emerge
On April 22, Trump publicly stated that US import tariffs are too high and expected significant reductions. Upon this news, market risk aversion weakened, and volatility decreased. CME rate futures data indicates the market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates in June, with three cuts anticipated this year, potentially bringing more liquidity.
The Trump administration continues to advance crypto policies, signing an order in March 2025 to establish a "strategic BTC reserve" and promoting BTC reserve bills in multiple states. Meanwhile, the new SEC chairman Paul Atkins' nomination might ease regulatory pressure on the crypto industry.
BTC has outperformed US stocks since mid-March, showing certain safe-haven attributes. In early April, BTC's RSI and MACD showed bottom divergence, with sentiment indicators reaching extreme fear. Currently, MACD has broken through the zero axis, with market trends shifting from bearish to bullish.
Overall, eased tariff policies, rate loosening expectations, and crypto policy advancements might support the market, with potential short-term funding reversal opportunities.
BTC Decouples from US Stocks, Safe-haven Attributes Gain Market Recognition
According to CryptoQuant analyst Timo Oinonen's report, BTC's correlation with US stocks continues to weaken. In the past week, BTC has significantly decoupled from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, with traditional stock and tech stock correlations declining. CryptoQuant data shows BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 dropped from 0.88 at the end of 2024 to 0.77, and with Nasdaq from 0.91 in January 2025 to 0.83.
BTC's safe-haven attributes have strengthened, with its mainstream investment asset status gradually recognized by the market. As the market stabilizes and short-term US stock market negative factors are exhausted, gold prices subsequently dropped, while BTC prices rose. BTC price increase has already exceeded gold's this week.
ETH Expected to Lead Altcoins in Price Rebound
Coinglass data shows ETH futures market was active on the 29th, with total open interest of $20.733 billion, and OI/MC ratio of 10%. On April 22, ETH price broke through to $1,695, then rose to $1,800, with futures market rising in sync with spot market.
Since December 2024, ETH has experienced a 5-month decline, with profitable address ratio dropping from 95% to 35%. The MVRV indicator fell to 0.8, entering an oversold state, similar to 2022 bear market performance. Cost basis distribution shows a large long-term holding area around $1,850, which might serve as support.
Technically, ETH has rebounded about 30% since November 2024, with MACD forming a golden cross. RSI and MFI both show oversold conditions, potentially signaling a trend reversal. As the "Altcoin King", ETH's on-chain data, futures market, and technical aspects all indicate potential trend reversal, possibly driving a short-term altcoin market recovery.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach]
