The cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex released the latest market analysis report 《Bullish Momentum Starting To Form》 yesterday (29th), pointing out that Bit has risen by over 10% in the past week, significantly outperforming traditional risk assets like the S&P 500.
The report emphasized that Bit has reclaimed the key price level of $94,000, which is not only an important support point in the current market but also a crucial foundation for Bit's historical high in January, demonstrating Bit's strong market resilience.
Multiple Indicators Point to Optimistic Sentiment
The Bitfinex report noted that several indicators currently show the market is developing positively, including: Bit has broken through the short-term holder cost basis level (around $92,900), which is an important on-chain turning point typically signaling the market's transition from a correction phase to a new bullish momentum; additionally, positive market structure signals include the profitable supply percentage indicator rising to 87.3%, reflecting improved market health and enhanced investor profitability.
Furthermore, the Fed recently relaxed cryptocurrency asset regulations, withdrawing previous supervisory requirements for the US banking industry, which will promote innovation and simplify banks' participation in cryptocurrency and USD token activities. This demonstrates a more supportive and adaptive regulatory attitude towards the digital asset industry, injecting a boost into the crypto market.
However, Bitfinex also warns that the current market has not yet entered a full euphoria state, and the next few weeks will be crucial. Whether Bit can sustain its upward momentum will determine if it can further challenge historical highs or face the risk of another pullback.
Negative Effects of Trade War Begin to Emerge
On the other hand, the report also analyzed the current US economic situation, indicating that high tariff policies are gradually showing their impact, specifically:
- First, although initial unemployment claims remain low and the unemployment rate is 4.2%, labor market confidence shows signs of fatigue. Wage satisfaction and minimum acceptable salary expectations have significantly declined, indicating increased public concerns about long-term job security and wage growth.
- In the real economy, durable goods orders in March significantly increased due to surging commercial aircraft demand, but core capital goods orders, an important indicator of business investment, have almost stagnated, reflecting businesses' cautious attitude under tariff uncertainty. Businesses have postponed major investments, raising market concerns about economic momentum slowing later this year.
- Additionally, the USD is weakening due to declining market confidence in US economic leadership, drastically reduced GDP predictions, and strong competition from Europe. Simultaneously, low consumer sentiment and the possibility of Fed rate cuts may further accelerate USD depreciation. Finally, the return of Japanese investor funds and Bank of Japan interventions add more variables to the USD trend.
In the short term, whether the US-China trade war can be alleviated and whether the Fed will cut rates will be crucial factors in determining if Bit can demonstrate its digital gold narrative.
Further Reading: Fed Withdraws Cryptocurrency Guidelines! Michael Saylor: Banks Can Now Freely Support Bit
