Delisting Bomb' Turns 'Wealth Rocket'?On April 24th, Binance announced the delisting of ALPACA token. Normally, ALPACA should have faced selling, panic, and a sharp decline; however, ALPACA defied expectations, with its price rising over 650% since the announcement.
Is this dramatic rebound the project's "last gleam", or a premeditated script by capital players? Behind this sudden surge, a storm might be brewing...
Image source: coingecko
Delisting Countdown Changes, 'Slaughter Moment'
On April 10th, Binance initiated the second batch of delisting voting. A week later, ALPACA ranked seventh among 17 candidate projects, with delisting crisis emerging.
On April 24th, Binance officially announced ALPACA's delisting on May 2nd, with perpetual contracts to be cleared on April 30th. Upon this news, ALPACA's price plummeted from $0.0329 to $0.029, with market cap shrinking to $5 million.
Just when the market believed ALPACA would collapse, a dramatic scene unfolded: the price surged from $0.029 to $0.0857 within an hour, a 195% increase. This sudden spike caught short sellers off guard and set the stage for an even crazier trend.
On April 25th, Alpaca Finance officially stated that due to trading volume exceeding 1 billion tokens, market makers had requested additional token issuance to maintain liquidity, but canceled the plan after community opposition, which undoubtedly dealt another blow to short sellers.
On April 26th, ALPACA's liquidation volume even surpassed Bitcoin's, primarily consisting of short position liquidations. The entire market seemed to become a "precise harvesting battle" targeting short sellers.
Image source: Coinglass
'Squeeze Script'
Regarding ALPACA's rebound, He Yi suggests this might be investors quickly recouping their investment through short-term manipulation. Based on analyses by community users @LuBtc 888, @0x_ooorange, and @Mumu_yay, we've compiled a comprehensive 'squeeze script':
I. Layout Before Delisting
Before the delisting announcement, "market makers" may have anticipated or detected anomalies, with potential accumulation around April 19th. During this period, ALPACA's trading volume on Binance significantly expanded, but price increases remained extremely limited.
II. Creating Expectation Misalignment, 'Bearish Trap' Appears
The market generally expected "delisting = sharp decline", with retail and short-term speculators collectively going short. As short positions surged, "market makers" seized the opportunity to accumulate at low prices, establishing large long positions at the bottom, then pushing spot prices upward and triggering consecutive short liquidations.
III. Rule Changes Accelerate Squeeze Rhythm
Binance shortened funding rate collection from 8 hours to 1 hour. ALPACA's funding rate once dropped to -2%, meaning short sellers not only faced liquidation risks but also had to pay high "interest" hourly, forcing accelerated position closing and rapidly accelerating the pull-up.
IV. Main Force's Profit Model
Spot Market: Low-buying during delisting panic, creating a "last gleam" illusion to attract retail investors to chase high, then selling at high levels.
Futures Market: Holding large-scale top-level positions, continuously collecting interest from short sellers through negative fee rate mechanisms, achieving two-way profits.
ALPACA Post-Market Concerns
ALPACA's future trend remains controversial. @Mumu_yay believes the delisting announcement will trigger a settlement mechanism, meaning both long and short positions will be automatically liquidated. In this scenario, "market makers" need not worry about liquidity exit, only waiting at high levels for settlement to be triggered.
However, crypto KOL Kuang Ren holds a different perspective. He believes that from a gambling perspective, the house will choose to gradually build long positions at high points, then reverse and short, using this to smash spot markets, and ultimately maximize profits through liquidation. Therefore, his conclusion is that ALPACA's trend will move towards a sharp decline.
Additionally, trader @thankUcrypto pointed out that generally, before delisting, there will be both pumping and dumping operations. Binance, as the platform with the strongest market liquidity, if it does not conduct dumping operations before delisting on May 2nd, market makers can only wait to dump on other exchanges after delisting. However, the depth and buying pressure of other platforms are insufficient, which means the profits from dumping will be significantly reduced.
The Storm Continues, Future Uncertain
As the delisting date of May 2nd approaches, ALPACA's fate remains undecided. Its price trajectory has become a microcosm of a typical capital game in the crypto market. The market is always in a cycle, and perhaps new "ALPACAs" will continue to emerge in the future, performing similar scripts in different guises.
In the midst of turbulent waves, rationality remains the only reliable anchor for investors. Facing short-term emotions and temptations, only by staying clear-headed and keeping one's eyes wide open can one avoid losing direction in the noise. Stay away from high-risk currencies lacking fundamental support, and be wary of operational and controlling undercurrents. When sailing the seas, only steady helmsmen can avoid hidden reefs.
