Author: Hotcoin Research
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.94 trillion, with BTC accounting for 63.45%, valued at $1.87 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $238 billion, with a 1.61% increase in the past 7 days, of which USDT represents 61.66%.
This week, BTC's price has been oscillating upward, currently at $94,734; ETH has been range-bound, currently at $1,800.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined with a few rising, including: VIRTUAL with a 7-day increase of 98.2%, BRETT with a 7-day increase of 92.8%, TRUMP with a 7-day increase of 81.1%, and TURBO with a 7-day increase of 122.77%.
This week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw net inflows of $3.033 billion; the US Ethereum spot ETF saw net inflows of $157 million.
The "Fear & Greed Index" on April 26th was 65 (lower than last week), with market sentiment: 2 days of fear, 2 days of neutrality, and 3 days of greed.
Market prediction: This week saw significant stablecoin issuance, substantial net inflows into the US Bitcoin spot ETF, and small net inflows into the Ethereum ETF. As the Trump administration's stance on high tariffs began to soften, and with the Federal Reserve board members' "potential rate cut" remarks, market morale was greatly boosted. BTC broke through $95,000 from $85,000, with large buy orders still coming from institutions and listed companies, and altcoins rallying accordingly.
The market is currently in a greedy sentiment. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in May is only 3.5%, lower than last week, making a May rate cut unlikely, though there is still a high possibility of a rate cut in June. It is expected that the market will oscillate narrowly in the near term before breaking through, and once there are any slightly favorable news for crypto, BTC will return to the $100,000 range.
Understanding Now
Weekly Major Events
1. On April 19, Du Jun, co-founder of ABCDE, posted on social media that ABCDE has officially stopped investing in new projects and suspended the fundraising plan for its second phase fund;
2. On April 19, according to the latest CNBC nationwide economic survey, widespread dissatisfaction with Donald Trump's handling of tariffs, inflation, and government spending has led to his lowest economic support rating during his presidency;
3. On April 22, according to Decrypt, the new SEC Chairman Paul Atkins will face 15 altcoin and MEME token ETF applications upon taking office, with over 70 application documents to review;
4. On April 23, according to market news, US President Trump stated that tariffs on Chinese goods would not be as high as 145%, and tariffs would significantly decrease, but not to zero;
5. On April 23, Brandon Lutnick, son of US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, leading the financial services company Cantor, is collaborating with SoftBank, Tether, and the crypto trading platform Bitfinex to form a Bitcoin investment consortium exceeding $3 billion;
6. On April 23, the White House is about to reach a comprehensive agreement with Japan and India to avoid massive US tariffs, but may leave many thorny details for later discussion;
7. On April 24, according to official sources, in this TRUMP dinner, the top 25 TRUMP holders will be invited to an exclusive reception before the dinner and have dinner with Trump. Additionally, TRUMP officials have arranged a special VIP White House tour for such whales the next day;
8. On April 24, according to Bitcoin Laws, the New Hampshire Bitcoin Reserve Bill HB 302 has passed the Senate Finance Committee vote, with 4 votes in favor and 1 against;
9. On April 25, the Federal Reserve revoked regulatory guidelines for banks' crypto asset and dollar token businesses, simultaneously updating related business expectation standards. This move aims to ensure regulatory requirements keep pace with risk evolution and further support banking system innovation. On April 25, Raydium posted an airdrop-related emoji tweet, potentially hinting at an upcoming airdrop.
Macroeconomic
1. On April 24, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that rate cuts may be initiated as unemployment rises;
2. On April 23, according to CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in May is 3.5%, with a 96.5% probability of maintaining current rates;
3. On April 24, according to Bitcoin News, JAN3 Bitcoin technology company CEO Samson Mow met with Japanese Senator Satoshi Hamada to discuss the urgent need for Japan to develop a national Bitcoin strategy.
ETF
According to statistics, from April 21 to April 25, US Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows were $3.033 billion; as of April 25, GBTC (Grayscale) has outflowed a total of $22.642 billion, currently holding $18.246 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $55.646 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $111.026 billion.
US Ethereum spot ETF net inflows: $157 million.
Foreseeing the Future
Event Announcements
1. Staking Summit will be held in Dubai on April 28 and 29, 2025;
2. TOKEN2049 Dubai 2025 will be held in Dubai from April 30 to May 1, 2025;
3. Canada Crypto Week will be held in Toronto, Canada from May 11 to 17, 2025;
4. Bitcoin 2025 will be held in Las Vegas, USA from May 27 to 29.
Project Progress
1. AI on-chain trading and whale tracking platform Delulu will distribute Lulu points, cash vouchers, and other rewards to Beta version traders before April 29 (for 21 days);
2. Arcium public testnet will go live on April 30;
3. On-chain trading execution platform Definitive's EDGE token claim window is open until May 1, 2025;
4. Echos, the AI agent launched by Stride, a liquid staking protocol in the Cosmos ecosystem, announced it will close on May 1, and users need to withdraw funds before its permanent closure on May 1.
Important Events
1. Cboe Digital, the crypto division of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, plans to launch a new Bitcoin futures product on April 28, currently awaiting regulatory approval. The new trading product, in collaboration with FTSE Russell, will be cash-settled and based on the XBTF index, which is equivalent to one-tenth of the FTSE Bitcoin index value. It will settle on the last working day of each month;
2. The Nigerian court has postponed the tax evasion trial of Binance and its executives to April 30 to allow local tax authorities to respond to the crypto exchange's request to revoke the order to serve court documents via email;
3. The submission deadline for Terraform Labs creditor claims is May 1, 2025, at 7:59;
4. According to Techinasia, crypto investment platform Bake will close its Singapore market and services starting May 1.
Token Unlocks
1. IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 15.16 million tokens on April 30, valued at approximately $2.54 million, representing 0.41% of circulating supply;
2. Renzo (REZ) will unlock 864 million tokens on April 30, valued at approximately $13.08 million, representing 8.64% of circulating supply;
3. dYdX (ETHDYDX) will unlock 8.33 million tokens on May 1, valued at approximately $5.64 million, representing 1.13% of circulating supply;
4. Omni Network (OMNI) will unlock 16.64 million tokens on May 2, valued at approximately $45.97 million, representing 16.64% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, is dedicated to providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have built a three-in-one service system of "trend judgment + value mining + real-time tracking", offering precise market interpretation and practical strategies for investors at different levels through in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional assessment of potential projects, and round-the-clock market fluctuation monitoring, combined with the bi-weekly "Hotcoin Strict Selection" strategy live broadcast and daily "Blockchain Today's Headlines" news briefing. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish cognitive frameworks and help professional institutions capture alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment itself carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure capital safety.
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