Odaily星球日报讯 自 2024 年 4 月比特币完成第四次减半以来，BTC 价格仅上涨 43.4%，远低于前三轮减半后分别录得的 7,000%、291%和 541%的涨幅，创下比特币减半后最差表现。分析指出，宏观经济不确定性、特朗普政府的贸易政策、ETF 资金流出、以及市场结构变化等因素，共同削弱了减半带来的上涨效应。此外，随着比特币市场逐渐成熟，价格波动性下降，其 60 日波动率已从 2012 年的 200%降至当前的约 50%，表明未来可能呈现更稳定但涨幅有限的走势。（Decrypt）

Odaily星球日报讯 自 2024 年 4 月比特币完成第四次减半以来，BTC 价格仅上涨 43.4%，远低于前三轮减半后分别录得的 7,000%、291%和 541%的涨幅，创下比特币减半后最差表现。分析指出，宏观经济不确定性、特朗普政府的贸易政策、ETF 资金流出、以及市场结构变化等因素，共同削弱了减半带来的上涨效应。此外，随着比特币市场逐渐成熟，价格波动性下降，其 60 日波动率已从 2012 年的 200%降至当前的约 50%，表明未来可能呈现更稳定但涨幅有限的走势。（Decrypt）

分析：比特币第四次减半后迄今仅上涨43.4%，远低于前三次减半后的市场表现

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Since the fourth Bitcoin halving in April  2024,TC024T price has only risen by  43.4%, significantly lower than the previous three halvings' gains of 7,000%, 291%, and 541%, marking the worst performance after a Bitcoin halving. Analysts point out that macroeconomic uncertainty, Trump administration's trade policies, ETF fund outflows, and market structural changes have collectively weakened the price increase effect of the halving. Moreover, as the gradually matures, price volatility has decreased, with day dropping from 200% in 2012 to around 50% currently, indicating a potentially more stable but limited growth trend in the future.

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Since the fourth Bitcoin halving in April 2024, BTC price has only increased by 43.4%, significantly lower than the previous three halvings which recorded gains of 7,000%, 291%, and 541% respectively, marking the worst performance after a Bitcoin halving. Analysts point out that macroeconomic uncertainty, trade policies of the Trump administration, ETF fund outflows, and market structural changes have collectively weakened the price appreciation effect of the halving. Moreover, as the Bitcoin market gradually matures, price volatility has decreased, with its 60-day volatility dropping from 200% in 2012 to around 50% currently, indicating a potentially more stable but limited growth trend in the future. (Decrypt)

Analysis: Bitcoin has only risen 43.4% since its fourth halving, far lower than the market performance after the previous three halvings

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Glassnode published an article stating that driven by expectations of eased US-China tariffs, Bitcoin price briefly rose to $94,700, temporarily breaking through the key Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis of $92,900. This level is typically viewed as a critical point for market transition from bearish to bullish. The report noted that the Short-Term Holder Profit/Loss Ratio (STH P/L Ratio) rebounded to 1.0, indicating that recent buyers are generally at a break-even point, with risks of profit-taking. Currently, 87.3% of Bitcoin supply is in a profitable state, up from 82.7% when prices were at similar levels, showing that about 5% of supply has changed hands at lower prices. Additionally, on April 22, US Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows hit a historical high of $1.54 billion, demonstrating strong institutional demand. Nevertheless, negative funding rates in the futures market suggest increased short interest, indicating that market sentiment remains cautious.

Glassnode: BTC spot price rises, but futures market funding rates turn negative, indicating rising short interest

<Odaily> News: Bitcoin led the rebound in risk assets, potentially creating the largest weekly gain since Trump won the U.S. presidential election. As investors digest the impact of Trump's trade war, the Nasdaq 100 index, dominated by tech stocks, rose by about 5%, while Bitcoin has increased by approximately 12% since last week, breaking through $95,000 for the first time since early March. Jack Ostrowski, a trader at crypto market maker Wintermute, stated: "In continuous volatility, the implied correlation within cryptocurrencies remains high." "Therefore, although the overall market has improved, it is evident that macro and geopolitical forces continue to be the primary drivers of capital flows." (Jin Shi)

Bitcoin recorded its biggest weekly gain since the US election, outperforming US stocks

<PANews> On April 25th, Matrixport's latest weekly report noted that Bitcoin's price has risen to $93,653, breaking through and stabilizing above the 21-week moving average, which is an important technical indicator for determining market trend. The report believes that despite the macroeconomic environment not yet fully returning to normal, there are still opportunities for moderate growth in the US stock market, providing support for risk assets including Bitcoin.

Bitcoin recently broke through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $87,045, providing investors with a positive trading signal, and can now be considered a reasonable stop-loss point for long positions. Although the summer market typically shows range-bound fluctuations, Bitcoin still has upward potential, especially with gold's recent strong performance further enhancing the reasons for Bitcoin allocation. The report emphasizes that global US dollar asset holders are seeking asset diversification and reducing dependence on the US dollar, a process expected to continue for several years.

[Analysis: Bitcoin stabilizes above the 21-week moving average, with $87,045 becoming a key stop-loss level]