Citigroup recently pointed out in its latest report that 2025 could be the "ChatGPT moment" for blockchain. According to the report's predictions, stablecoin issuers could become one of the top holders of US Treasury bonds, surpassing many major sovereign nations, and 2025 might be a turning point for blockchain adoption driven by stablecoins, similar to the explosive growth of AI with the popular application ChatGPT.
Stablecoin Market Cap to Reach $1.6 Trillion by 2030
According to a Coindesk report, Citi's core asset prediction focuses on USD-pegged stablecoins, currently led by Tether's $145 billion market cap and Circle's $60 billion market cap, with stablecoins experiencing rapid growth and increasing application in global payments and remittances.
In its baseline scenario, Citi predicts that this asset class could grow from the current $230 billion to $1.6 trillion by 2030, provided it receives regulatory support and accelerates institutional integration. In a more optimistic scenario, the market size could even expand to $3.7 trillion; however, in the most pessimistic scenario with ongoing structural challenges, the market size might only reach $500 billion.
A key catalyst is the recent US administrative order establishing a federal framework for digital assets. The report notes that such clear regulatory support could help embed stablecoins more deeply into the financial system, bringing faster payment processes, higher transparency, and more efficient asset settlement. The report adds:
This could drive widespread blockchain-based monetary adoption and inspire various application scenarios across US public and private sectors in financial and other domains.
Stablecoin Issuers to Become Major US Debt Buyers
On the other hand, the report expects that by 2030, about 90% of circulating stablecoins will remain pegged to the US dollar, thereby consolidating the dollar's global dominance. This trend will have significant implications for the global financial system. If regulations require stablecoins to be backed by low-risk, high-liquidity traditional financial assets like government bonds, USD stablecoin issuers will become one of the largest buyers of US Treasury bonds.
Citigroup estimates that by the end of 2030, stablecoin issuers' holdings of US government debt could reach $1.2 trillion, potentially exceeding all major foreign sovereign holders.
Simultaneously, the report notes that central banks in Europe and Asia might promote the development of their own digital currencies (CBDCs).
Stablecoins Still Face Depegging Risks
Despite the promising outlook, the report also highlights multiple risks. In 2023 alone, stablecoins experienced nearly 1,900 depegging incidents, with over 600 involving major stablecoins, according to Moody's data cited in the report.
The author further notes that in extreme situations, such as the massive USDC redemption event following Silicon Valley Bank's collapse, crypto liquidity could be severely disrupted, triggering automatic sell-offs and creating a chain reaction in financial markets.
