The market may gradually weaken its focus on short-term tariff uncertainty. Although the possibility of a comprehensive return to normal macroeconomic environment is low - with tariffs still existing, enterprises may delay capital expenditure, and consumers remain cautious - there is still an opportunity for moderate repricing of the US stock market, which will provide support for risk assets including BTC.
BTC Stabilizes Above 21-Week Moving Average, Upside Potential Evident
Currently, BTC price has risen to $93,653, breaking through and stabilizing above the 21-week moving average. The 21-week moving average is our preferred and intuitive technical indicator for judging market trend. BTC's rebreakthrough and stabilization above the 21-week moving average coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $87,045. This price can now be considered a reasonable stop-loss point for long positions. Although the summer market typically shows range-bound oscillation, BTC still has further upside potential, especially with gold's recent strong performance, which further enhances the rationale for Bitcoin allocation from a macro perspective.
Gold Becomes Ultimate Safe-Haven Asset, Vertical Stretch Momentum Obvious
Since the beginning of 2024, spot gold prices have risen by approximately 150%. As stock markets, bond markets, and risk asset enthusiasts continuously seek capital safe havens amid uncertain economic conditions, gold has recently shown a vertical lifting momentum, breaking through $3,500 per ounce and entering a short-term consolidation. Data shows that this gold price increase mainly occurred during the Asian trading session, and it is not ruled out that there might be fund flows from official or central bank sources, shifting away from the US dollar towards other safe-haven assets.
In this current upward cycle, gold token market capitalization has been continuously improving. Among these, XAUm, the gold token launched by Matrixport's RWA platform, has quickly captured the adoption rate of on-chain gold tokens by virtue of its 1:1 anchoring to LBMA-certified 99.99% gold bars, with support for physical redemption. The first batch of physical gold bar redemption and distribution by XAUm this week has also sparked market discussion.
US Dollar Cycle Peaking May Provide Support for BTC Price Increase
BTC may continue to maintain oscillation and consolidation in the near future, but changes in the macroeconomic environment, especially the potential peak of the US dollar cycle, may provide substantial support for BTC. This trend has already supported gold and may similarly benefit BTC. Global US dollar asset holders are continuously seeking asset diversification, gradually reducing dependence on the US dollar, a process expected to continue for several years.
BTC Spot ETF Capital Flows Become Current Important Investment Indicator
Simultaneously, capital inflows into BTC spot ETFs are expected to accelerate. This may become a key indicator that the market must focus on, especially if capital inflows accelerate earlier than expected, challenging our previous assumption that ETF funds would only recover after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell shifts to a dovish stance. Although this transformation has not yet occurred, this indicator remains a crucial signal that traders must closely monitor.
BTC is currently approaching the upper end of the $73,000 to $94,000 range. Traders can consider a "Stock Replacement Strategy". This strategy includes taking profits on existing BTC positions and converting to a more neutral position, such as using 5% of funds to purchase call options with a strike price 110% of the current market price (i.e., 10% out of the money). If BTC pulls back, the maximum loss is limited to the 5% option cost; if the upward trend continues, investors can still enjoy potential upside gains under controlled risk. This is an efficient strategy for maintaining flexible allocation in an environment of high uncertainty.
Disclaimer: Markets involve risks, and investments require caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve extreme risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
