Written by: Pzai, Foresight News
On April 24, Fidelity stated on X that "due to listed companies' purchases, Bitcoin supply on exchanges is declining. This trend is expected to accelerate in the near future." After the US election, the relaxed expectations brought by Trump for the crypto field undoubtedly enhanced market potential expectations, with listed companies purchasing nearly 350,000 Bitcoins. The market game between exchanges, whales, and listed companies is in full swing. Under market fluctuations, where will Bitcoin head in the future? This article will analyze Bitcoin data indicators and review market dynamics.
The current Bitcoin exchange inventory is 2.6 million, the lowest level since November 2018. Since November 2024, over 425,000 Bitcoins have been transferred from exchanges. In this indicator, the critical time point is the second half of 2024, especially after Trump's potential election, with significant outflows coinciding with US listed companies' massive purchases. This trend continues to show a downward trajectory, reflecting that relevant entities (such as listed companies) are increasing their Bitcoin reserves.
Bitcoin Exchange Inventory Trend (Source: CryptoQuant)
Since the US election, listed companies have added nearly 350,000 Bitcoins. From Strategy's Bitcoin holdings growth curve, starting from November 10, 2024, they massively increased holdings by 107,000 within two weeks, subsequently continuing to increase to over 531,000, averaging 42,000 per month. In the listed companies' holdings distribution, 8 companies hold over 10,000 Bitcoins, with each maintaining a growth trend in the past six months.
These companies' Bitcoin mNAV (stock market value to holdings market value ratio) is mostly between 1.4-2.25. If benchmarked at a 1:1 ratio, they are expected to release liquidity of $50 billion into the Bitcoin market. Outside the US, Asian listed companies like Japan's Metaplanet and Hong Kong's HK Asia Holdings are also increasing allocations. Metaplanet's CEO Simon Gerovich even stated plans to double Bitcoin holdings from 5,000 this year.
Before January 2025, spot Bitcoin ETF data also aligned with exchange outflows, with the highest single-day inflow reaching 18,000 Bitcoins, somewhat promoting Bitcoin's surge. Before the election, Strategy's average holding price was $42,000, subsequently increasing to $67,000, proving Bitcoin's long-term value is market-recognized.
Additionally, US policymakers are accelerating compliance reserve processes. According to Bitcoin Laws data, of the 27 states that submitted Bitcoin reserve bills, three have entered the second submission phase (Arizona, New Hampshire, Texas), with Arizona entering the second review stage. On March 7, White House AI and crypto advisor David Sacks stated that President Trump signed an executive order regarding Bitcoin strategic reserves, but only reserving Bitcoins seized through criminal or civil processes.
According to on-chain data, the US government holds over 183,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 0.92% of existing Bitcoin circulation, currently valued at over $16.4 billion. As state bills are gradually implemented, this number will further increase, lowering the threshold for US companies' Bitcoin reserves.
For the industry, traditional funds entering the market provide reassurance, and since most listed companies' Bitcoin investments are above cost lines (e.g., Strategy 1.4x, Tesla 2.78x), their Bitcoin investment expectations remain optimistic. With the crypto field's compliance direction and "Trump reserves" settled, ETF inflows are again increasing, potentially continuing to strengthen listed companies' buying trend.
