Background: Bitcoin Rebounds, Altcoins Still at Low Points

Bitcoin returned to the 90,000 mark on April 23rd, partly due to the gradually clarifying tariff war situation, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Besson stating that the tariff deadlock is unsustainable and expected to ease in the near future.

On the other hand, Trump has been continuously pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, strongly demanding interest rate cuts, even suggesting he would fire Powell if rates aren't lowered. This move made global markets doubt the Fed's independence, triggering distrust in the U.S. dollar. The latest situation is that when media asked Trump about the matter, he said: "I have no intention of firing him. I just hope he can be more proactive about interest rate cuts."

Previously, when Trump demanded Powell's resignation, Bitcoin rarely performed its "digital gold" hedging function, with its trend highly correlated to physical gold. Now that Powell's career crisis is resolved and U.S. stocks have rebounded sharply, Bitcoin continues to rise, enjoying the liquidity asset premium, rising 12% in the past seven days.

In our previous article, we mentioned that during this Bitcoin rally, Altcoins have not followed suit, with Bitcoin's market dominance reaching 64.2%, a four-year high. While it's uncertain when the Altcoin season will arrive, we can observe which Altcoins perform stronger than Bitcoin during market volatility to identify fund preferences that may continue their strong momentum.

Top 100 Market Cap Tokens Outperforming BTC in the Past Seven Days

The following table compiles tokens in the top 100 market cap that have outperformed BTC in the past seven days. In fact, there are more than the 11 tokens listed, as Bitcoin's significant rise on April 23rd was accompanied by a slight drop in market dominance (0.2%), indicating a general rise in Altcoins. Many previously long-declining tokens suddenly outperformed Bitcoin's seven-day gains. However, this rise should be interpreted as liquidity spillover rather than a result of fund selection.

Therefore, in token selection, we excluded overnight surge tokens and focused on Altcoins that have steadily outperformed BTC in the past seven days.

Which Tracks Should Be Focused On?

From the above tokens, the key intersecting tracks are: AI, L1, MEME, and DeFi

· AI: The previous narrative was initiated by AI, starting from the combination of GOAT and memes, then exploring more possibilities and applications. The AI frenzy brought a bubble, which burst after the Trump family's consecutive token launches, with most AI tokens dropping over 90% and resetting valuations.

The bubble's burst doesn't mean the track's end, but a mechanism to eliminate inferior projects. As Web 2 AI continues to develop, Web 3 AI projects have undergone a reshuffle. If Web 2 AI can translate to Web3, the current AI track's valuation is relatively cheap, and the remaining projects have been tested. If the Altcoin season arrives, this track may capture the liquidity spillover from Bitcoin.

Representative tokens not in the table: VIRTUAL, ARC, ALCH, SWARMS, Zerebro

· L1: Public chain tokens have always been a relatively stable choice during Altcoin seasons, with the overall logic being that a chain's development determines its ecosystem projects' ceiling and captures the most liquidity.

Unlike 2021, funds are no longer paying for "EVM replication" but seeking public chains with real TPS and developer tools that can bring new applications. Once catalyzed (exchange listing, institutional entry), price elasticity will be significantly higher than old L1 chains.

Emerging public chains without tokens: Monad, MegaETH

· MEME: Bitcoin itself is the largest meme coin in the crypto space. Meme coins have become a prominent trend and are likely to survive, key factors being that meme coins are carriers of consensus and culture. Top meme coins of each chain can be seen as leveraged public chain tokens. Most meme coins are native to the chain, with pricing rights not monopolized by centralized exchanges, easily creating wealth effects. In the crypto space, where there's a wealth effect, there's continuous liquidity and participants.

· DeFi: In the crypto space, DeFi is a rare track with a genuine business model. Perp Dex and Dex earn trading fees; lending earns interest spreads; Yield Farming earns deposit/withdrawal fees; LaunchPad earns token issuance fees. HYPE, JUP, and AAVE in the table are all leaders in the DeFi field, importantly, they all have token buyback mechanisms. As the Altcoin season arrives and liquidity recovers, increasing transaction volumes, top DeFi protocols with network effects will drive higher project profitability. Higher profitability means stronger buyback power, increasing the likelihood of sustained token price appreciation.

Conclusion: Closely Monitor Bitcoin Dominance

The start of the Altcoin season means funds flowing from Bitcoin to riskier, smaller-cap Altcoins. Therefore, two key indicators to watch: First, whether Bitcoin can stabilize above 90,000, providing a stable market confidence anchor; second, and more importantly, whether Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) begins to decline, reflecting fund preference expansion.

On April 23rd, Bitcoin surged to 90,000, but BTC.D only slightly dropped 0.2%, indicating we're still in a "funds concentrated in BTC, steadily growing" phase. However, if BTC.D starts to decline significantly, such as returning to the 57% level from early this year, it will signal funds officially spilling into the Altcoin market, potentially triggering a comprehensive rotation.

In other words, the true starting point of the Altcoin season is not just Bitcoin continuously hitting new highs, but a process of rising risk appetite and funds spreading from BTC to other thematic tracks. Only when both occur can we see a comprehensive market revival. Now is the time to observe, screen, and position. Whether the Altcoin wave arrives, BTC.D's trend will provide the answer.

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