Article source: Between the Lines
The market has been quite interesting these past few days. Yesterday (April 23rd), Bitcoin's price rebounded to around $94,700 (near the 0.236 Fibonacci level), and it appears to have successfully broken through the downward channel of the recent period, as shown in the image below.
Thinking back to when the market was continuously declining, Bitcoin dropped to around $74,000, and many people were in panic and pessimism, with a bearish atmosphere dominating emotions. Just about two weeks later, with Bitcoin's rapid rebound, I now see many people, including some KOLs who previously declared a bearish stance, starting to turn bullish again, giving a sense of "bulls returning quickly".
From people's emotions, my intuitive feeling is that many have shifted from pessimism to optimism, filled with anticipation and hope that Bitcoin will soon reach above $100,000 again.
On the other hand, looking at the total market value of the crypto market, TOTAL has recovered to around $3 trillion, and simultaneously, BTC.D (Bitcoin's market cap dominance) has reached a relative high of 64.6% since February 2021, as shown in the image below.
Bitcoin's dominance exceeding 64% also means that Altcoins continue to face overall liquidity challenges.
Although theoretically, based on past cycle experiences, when Bitcoin reaches a certain high proportion (around 65%), it often represents the potential arrival of a new Altcoin season, in the current market environment, if you want to capture potential Altcoin opportunities, it's best to prioritize focusing on mainstream coins (such as SOL, ETH, or other sector leaders), while carefully controlling your position ratio and avoiding getting stuck in Altcoins (especially on-chain meme coins) again.
Today, I also saw another interesting piece of news about the MemeCoin TRUMP token. Trump once again leveraged his influence to promote the TRUMP token, causing its price to surge rapidly from $9.3 to $14.7, maintaining around $12.4 at the time of writing, as shown in the image below.
A few days ago, many people were predicting that the TRUMP token would crash due to massive unlocking, but Trump's performance art once again exceeded expectations. Not only was the unlock of 40 million new tokens postponed by 90 days, but he also organized a Trump dinner where the top 220 TRUMP token holders can enjoy a luxury dinner, and the top 25 can additionally get a White House visit and dinner with Trump.
The GetTrumpMemes website even created a real-time ranking board showing TRUMP token holders' rankings, with higher rankings for those holding more tokens for longer periods. This whale player ranking game is expected to continue until May 12th, as shown in the image below.
It's unclear whether other big players or KOLs will imitate this "influence mining" game initiated by Trump, similar to how various leaders launched their own MemeCoin after TRUMP token's release.
While the market seems lively again, we shouldn't ignore potential risks. As we discussed in our previous article (April 22nd) from a macro perspective, the market will still have uncertainties and may face significant volatility in the short term. A true market recovery is unlikely unless we see breakthrough developments like tariff changes or interest rate cuts.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and meaning while translating to English.]For example, the RWA tokenized fund issued by BlackRock (namely BUIDL, BlackRock's USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund) currently accounts for over 90% on the Ethereum chain, as shown in the image below, which seems to demonstrate traditional large financial institutions' recognition of Ethereum's settlement layer (whether it will change in the future is unknown, but at least it is so now). As shown in the image below.
In short, with changes in regulatory policies, DeFi's partial recovery, deep participation of traditional financial institutions, and continuous construction of Ethereum's network and ecosystem... we believe that Ethereum is still worth paying attention to and taking seriously in the future.
Of course, we only mentioned some aspects of being optimistic about Ethereum in the long term. In fact, changes in anything have two sides, such as Ethereum's initial transition from PoW to PoS, the impact of Vitalik Buterin's personal actions on Ethereum, etc... These remain focal points of controversial discussions for many people.
The problems Ethereum currently faces seem to not only be issues with ETH itself but possibly problems faced by the current blockchain. After developing for over a decade, blockchain's primary approach still remains positioned as a "casino".
In the past, there were only thousands of Altcoins, and ETH naturally could be the king of Altcoins. But now there are millions of Altcoins (expected to exceed 100 million tokens by the end of 2025). If ETH wants to continue surpassing expectations in price and maintain its position as the king of Altcoins, it seems to need a more convincing new narrative (story) besides the basic narrative support we mentioned. Or, breakthroughs could occur in other aspects (such as changes in macroeconomic conditions, policy-driven factors, fundamental changes in chip structure, etc.). However, if I must choose one project for a longer-term bet from millions of projects excluding BTC, I personally still tend to choose ETH.
That's all for today. The sources of images/data involved in the text have been supplemented in the Notion. The above content is just a personal perspective and analysis, solely for learning records and communication, and does not constitute any investment advice.
Article source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/WwZtEVGKJlhabgiKcA2oPw
