This article is compiled from the keynote speech by Dasan, founder of Waterdrip Capital, at the Wanwu Island sharing session.
Deteriorating Macro Environment - Crisis Forming a New Order
1.1 Finance Entering a Chaotic Era
Since Trump's return to the White House, a series of unexpected economic and political measures have caused continuous market turbulence globally. One of the most significant measures was the escalation of tariff policies: from April 5, 2025, the United States will impose a uniform 10% "baseline tariff" on all imported goods and apply higher "reciprocal tariffs" to 60 countries, including China and Vietnam (with tariffs on China once rising to 125%). In the short term, Trump's tariff hammer caused significant market volatility: U.S. bonds experienced a selling wave, with 10-year Treasury yields soaring above 4.5%, creating the largest weekly increase in 20 years; U.S. stocks experienced severe fluctuations, nearly triggering circuit breakers; the U.S. dollar index continuously declined, creating the largest single-day drop in years. Although the U.S. subsequently announced a temporary suspension of new tariffs for some allied countries, investors remain anxious about future uncertainties, and the global financial system seems to have entered a "chaotic era".
[Rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the specific terminology as instructed]Market Environment Callback and "What to Do in the Second Half"
Over the past year, the global crypto market has experienced a dramatic shift from enthusiasm to calmness. The total market value of crypto assets has fallen from its historical peak of approximately $3.71 trillion to around $3.04 trillion (source: CoinMarketCap, data as of 2025.04.23), with the market entering a deep callback and clearing stage. Macro-economic turbulence (such as high inflation and rising interest rates) coupled with stricter regulation has caused many projects lacking genuine value support to disappear in this adjustment. However, for entrepreneurs who firmly believe in the long-term value of blockchain, this moment is actually the best time to build a foundation and nurture new opportunities - as the bubble of the previous cycle recedes, it provides an excellent chance to polish products and emerge outstanding.
In this "second half" environment, entrepreneurs should consider: What is suitable to do in the second half? Simple traffic strategies are no longer sustainable, replaced by entrepreneurial logic centered on hardcore value. In the current market environment, the following directions harbor new opportunities:
BTC Ecosystem: Financial innovation around the Bitcoin network ("BTC Fi"), infrastructure upgrades, and reconstruction of real-world assets and payment networks based on BTC.
Other Public Chain Ecosystems: Innovation on public chains like Ethereum that returns to efficiency and profitability essence, moving beyond merely "chasing traffic" and creating sustainable DeFi applications with a product-oriented approach.
Real World Assets (RWA) and Payment Finance (PayFi): Combining on-chain technology with real-world assets and payment scenarios to develop new models supported by stable cash flows.
Crypto Concept Stocks: Focusing on the emerging "blockchain concept stocks" wave in traditional capital markets and the new path of Web3 startups moving towards stock-based models.
Subsequently, we will analyze and explore specific entrepreneurial opportunities worth attention during this macro callback period based on the above perspectives.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and precise approach, maintaining the technical terminology and capturing the nuanced insights about blockchain and crypto entrepreneurship.]2.3 Sustainable Entrepreneurship Model: Cash Flow-Driven Path Selection
Whether in the Bitcoin ecosystem or on other public chains, building a sustainable cash flow has become the watershed for whether a startup can go far. Traditional capital markets are beginning to evaluate crypto startups with mature enterprise standards, with "cash flow" and "profitability" becoming key assessment criteria. It can be said that traditional investors are redefining the connotation of "crypto companies", which opens a window for Web3 entrepreneurs to access mainstream capital.
Currently, some crypto projects with realistic business models are becoming bridges connecting Web3 and traditional capital markets. Such projects usually have clear revenue sources, stable cash flow expectations, and good compliance adaptation capabilities, thus receiving high attention from traditional institutions and being viewed as potential targets most likely to enter mainstream capital markets through IPO or merger.
In multiple subdivided tracks, DePIN is particularly outstanding. By chaining and managing real-world resources like computing, electricity, and bandwidth, combined with economic incentive mechanisms, it constructs a distributed infrastructure network facing the physical world, naturally possessing a SaaS-style revenue model. Representative projects like PEAQ, Jambo, OORT, Swan cover machine access, Web3 mobile devices, AI data storage, and computing power sharing, collectively constructing the key support layer of the DePIN ecosystem.
The AI+Crypto track demonstrates strong integration potential. By combining AI Agent, on-chain identity, and micropayment mechanisms, it promotes data interaction and resource scheduling between intelligent agents. Projects like Footprint focus on data analysis engines, while DeAgent.ai builds a decentralized AI Agent protocol, providing services for Web3 intelligent infrastructure.
The RWA (Real World Assets) direction is developing rapidly, with continuous tokenization of on-chain US Treasury bonds, corporate bonds, real estate, and other assets. The future market space is expected to reach 10 trillion dollars. Representative projects like The PAC provide asset mapping services under a compliant framework, promoting RWA circulation on-chain within regulatory frameworks.
PayFi (Payment Finance) has become the most active on-chain trading track. In 2024, stablecoin transaction volume exceeded 15.6 trillion dollars for the first time, surpassing Visa. Projects like Aisa are combining stablecoins with AI wallets to construct payment infrastructure supporting automation and real-time settlement, serving e-commerce, cross-border, and machine-to-machine payment scenarios.
In summary, these crypto startup projects that "generate cash flow, are easily valued, and have a compliant path" are favored by Wall Street and mainstream capital, and are viewed as core candidates to first enter the mainstream financial system.
For entrepreneurs, the insight from this trend is: design business models oriented towards cash flow. Consider how to generate stable income in the early stages of the project, rather than relying solely on token appreciation or subsidized expansion. Only when your project has real-world revenue and profit models can you attract both crypto-native funds and more conservative traditional investors. In the "second half" of a volatile macro environment with conservative capital preferences, crypto startups that operate steadily with healthy cash flow are more likely to break through.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and precise approach]Some companies are verifying this path through practical cases. For example, as mentioned earlier, Boyaa Interactive (00434.hk) has successfully achieved value reassessment in the public capital market through a dual-wheel drive of token holding and business transformation. Walnut Capital (00905.hk) represents another approach - intervening in crypto assets and Web3 projects through investment holding, planning to connect traditional securities, unlisted funds, derivatives with the new blockchain asset system. The company has currently established a cooperation with Waterdrip Capital, exploring a capital collaboration-type ecosystem construction path. This "capital collaboration-type" Web3 path does not rely on self-development, but instead uses financial capabilities and industrial resources to empower the ecosystem, becoming an important part of stock-based layout. Additionally, Hong Ya Holdings (01723.hk) has also carved out a path from traditional main business to digital asset management. Originally focusing on construction engineering and prepaid product retail, the company officially purchased BTC as a strategic reserve asset in early 2025, adjusted management composition, introduced an experienced crypto team, and gradually established its Web3 transformation direction. It is worth mentioning Nano Labs (NA.Nasdaq), a leading Chinese blockchain hardware manufacturer, which announced in early 2025 that it would use part of its dollar reserves to purchase BTC, officially incorporating BTC into its company's strategic asset allocation system, becoming a new paradigm for Chinese blockchain technology enterprises entering the global capital market.
The diversification of crypto concept stocks demonstrates how blockchain technology is integrating into traditional capital markets through different business models. This not only provides investors with new channels for blockchain track allocation but also points out a direction for entrepreneurs: which models are more likely to be recognized by mainstream capital and which models have been verified successful in the secondary market. From holding tokens for market value management to mining and expanding computing power services, to providing basic services like trading and payment, each model reflects the intersection of blockchain entrepreneurship and traditional business.
3.2 Stock-based Web3 Entrepreneurship Path: Tokens, Stocks, Dual-Track Advancement
Facing these trends, especially the success of crypto concept stocks, Web3 entrepreneurs are also rethinking their financing and development paths. In the past, crypto projects mainly relied on Token issuance for financing, but now the path towards stock-based financing (traditional equity financing and listing) is becoming increasingly clear. Overall, Web3 entrepreneurship has three optional paths, each with pros and cons:
"Token" Path (Crypto Token Financing): Financing and incentivizing the community through Token issuance. This path is highly flexible and quick to start, suitable for early product validation and community building. When the market is favorable, Token price appreciation can bring significant funds to the project. However, its drawbacks include high sensitivity to market conditions, with financing amount and Token valuation greatly affected by crypto market fluctuations; uncertainty in regulatory policies also casts a shadow on pure Token issuance models. Teams choosing this path need to address Token economic design, continuous market value management, and compliance risks.
"Stock" Path (Equity Financing and IPO): Following the traditional startup company route, introducing equity investment, focusing on business implementation and revenue growth, seeking IPO or acquisition exit once the company matures. In this approach, startups accept investment in equity form, which is more compliant with regulatory frameworks and more easily accepted by conservative institutional investors. Its advantages lie in company valuation being more based on fundamentals (revenue, profit), not disturbed by token price fluctuations, with more stable long-term development; disadvantages include potentially more difficult early-stage financing compared to Token issuance and possibly slower user and community expansion, requiring a longer runway to prove value. This path is suitable for projects with clear business models, capable of generating cash flow, and prepared for long-term deep cultivation.
"Dual-Track" Path (Tokens + Equity in Parallel): Balancing both crypto and traditional financing methods, utilizing their respective advantages in different stages. Typically, this involves issuing tokens in the early stage to raise seed community and funds, then establishing a formal company for equity financing and potentially pursuing IPO once the project matures with stable income. This "dual-track" model allows flexible adjustment at different project development stages: using tokens to incentivize users and build ecology early on, then using equity to connect with larger capital markets later. However, this also requires teams to have stronger balancing capabilities - managing the token community and maintaining token value while meeting shareholders' requirements for corporate governance and financial compliance. Some projects in the industry have already attempted this dual-track model, such as some DeFi protocols issuing governance tokens and then having their underlying companies accept VC equity investment, even considering future IPO. The dual-track model is complex, but when executed well, it might achieve an effect of 1+1>2.
Regardless of which path is chosen, the key is to align with the project's own positioning and external environment. Entrepreneurs should comprehensively consider project type, profit model, regulatory environment, and team's expertise to choose the most suitable financing and development route. In the current environment, blindly relying on a single path may have limitations. Flexibly adjusting strategies based on actual circumstances, and even switching or running parallel paths when necessary, can improve project survival and success rates.
4. Conclusion
Macroeconomic turbulent periods are both challenges and opportunities. The "second half" of the market tests entrepreneurs' perseverance and wisdom: only teams rooted in real value and focused on long-termism can survive the winter. Driven by multiple waves including BTC ecosystem, new public chain efficiency revolution, real asset tokenization, cash flow-driven models, and capital market integration, a new generation of blockchain entrepreneurs is ushering in unprecedented opportunities. Choosing the right track, running through the business model, and skillfully using appropriate financing paths can transform crisis into opportunity, stand out in the next cycle, and truly achieve the blockchain entrepreneurship leap from 0 to 1.
