This week's review

This week, from April 14 to April 21, the highest price of BTC was around $88465 and the lowest price was close to $83111, with a fluctuation range of about 6.44%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 80000, which will have a certain support or pressure.

• analyze:

1. 60000-68000, about 1.59 million pieces;

2. 76000-89000, about 1.83 million pieces;

3. 90,000-100,000: about 1.96 million pieces;

• The probability of not falling below 70,000-75,000 in the short term is 80%;

• The probability that the price will not rise below 90,000-95,000 in the short term is 70%.

Important news

Economic News

1. The U.S. dollar index weakened, falling below the 100, 99, and 98 levels in succession.

2. The price of gold rose sharply by 3% to US$3,430 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of about 30% this year, setting 55 new historical highs in the past 12 months.

3. Trump continues to put pressure on Powell: Trump has publicly criticized Powell many times, calling him "Mr. Too Late" and "the main loser", believing that interest rates should have been lowered long ago, accusing him of being slow, and calling for "preemptive rate cuts". He blamed the decline in US stocks and the risk of recession on Powell's failure to cut interest rates.

4. Market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve: Analysts believe that the news of Trump replacing Powell is one of the triggers of recent market fluctuations. The core is that the market is worried that the independence of the Federal Reserve will be damaged.

5. Impact of political pressure: Economics professors believe that although it is difficult for Trump to fire Powell, his public pressure will affect the Fed's decision-making, making it realize that it will be criticized by the public if it does not cut interest rates during an economic recession.

6. Expectations of interest rate cuts rise: The market generally pays attention to and bets that the Federal Reserve may turn to an easing policy in June or summer. CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a rate cut in June is about 75%. Citibank maintains its expectation of a 125 basis point rate cut in 2025, and expects the next rate cut in June.

7. Interest rate cuts become the core narrative: The market expects to enter the "interest rate cut mainline" in June, which will serve as the narrative driving force for the next stage of market conditions.

8. European Central Bank and Digital Euro:

◦ The European Central Bank (ECB) report predicts that the digital euro will replace some paper money, change the way money is used, and affect bank deposits.

◦ The ECB emphasizes that the launch of the digital euro is to respond to the rise of US dollar stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies and to curb the expansion of "de-banking" solutions.

Encrypted Eco-Messages

1. BTC and gold are increasingly linked: On Monday, BTC and gold showed safe-haven properties, but then fell due to the drag of US stocks. Recent analysis shows that BTC is affected by the rise of gold, and the safe-haven narrative is becoming consistent, which is related to the weakness of the US dollar and the uncertainty of US debt.

2. The price of BTC once exceeded $87,000, which is believed to be related to the decline of the US dollar, the rise of gold and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve.

3. CryptoQuant analysts believe that the current situation is more likely to be a correction rather than the beginning of a bear market, as the previous rise was mild and overheating was limited, and the downside risk is controllable.

4. Altcoin market: Coinmarketcap data shows that although the Altcoin seasonal index has rebounded from its low point, it is still far below the average of the previous few months, and the market has slightly warmed up. Matrixport believes that a large-scale rise in Altcoins requires catalysts such as dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, growth in stablecoins, or increased macro liquidity.

5. South Korea’s BTC premium rate (Kimchi premium) rebounded to about 2%, which is seen by some analysts as an early sign of strong demand and potential price rebound.

6. Bottoming out and narrative shift expectations: The market is concerned about whether BTC and altcoins have bottomed out, and is looking forward to transitioning to the next narrative stage centered on the "Federal Reserve's June rate cut."

7. Last week, the cumulative net inflow of the US BTC spot ETF was only US$13.7 million, while the net outflow of the ETH spot ETF was US$32.3 million, indicating that the inflow momentum has weakened.

8. Organization and whale dynamics:

◦ Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, increased its holdings by 330 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 4,855 BTC.

◦ Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) spent about $556 million to increase its holdings of 6,556 BTC in one week, with an average price of about $84,785. Saylor said that more than 13,000 institutions and 814,000 retail investors hold MSTR.

◦ Glassnode data shows that the number of “whale” addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC increased from the end of February to April 15 (2037->2107), approaching the level at the end of last year; while the number of small addresses holding less than 10 BTC continued to decrease.

9. Regulatory and policy developments:

◦ US state legislative progress:

▪ Texas will hold a hearing on the BTC Strategic Reserve and Investment Act.

▪ Arizona’s Strategic Digital Asset Reserve Act (SB 1373) passed a House committee and is subject to subsequent votes and approval.

◦ Federal perspective: Senator Cynthia Lummis suggested that if the U.S. government purchased BTC with gold certificates valued in 1974, it could halve the national debt within 20 years without the need for new tax funds.

◦ Reduced regulatory risk: Matrixport analysis believes that the regulatory risk of BTC in the United States has been significantly reduced, which is one of the reasons why its performance during this round of adjustment is better than in the past.

10. Development of digital euro: The European Central Bank actively promotes the digital euro project to meet the challenges of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.

Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state

Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term insights

•$92.4k is the key price point. For the short-term holders (STH) who bought in large quantities at the recent highs, this is their average cost line.

• The anchoring effect will play a huge role here: when the price rebounds close to $92.4k, these STHs that are trapped will have a strong urge to "sell at the cost" to avoid further losses. This will form a real and visible supply pressure wall. The short-term direction of the market depends to a large extent on whether it can effectively absorb and break through this resistance formed by the STH unwinding.

• If it fails to break through: If the price fails to hit $92.4k multiple times, or if it falls back due to heavy selling here, it will reinforce the pessimism in the market. STH may lose patience, triggering a larger-scale sell-off (capitulation selling), and the price may further fall to find lower support. This may also slow down the whales that are accumulating funds and wait for better prices.

• If successful: If there is strong enough buying power (such as continued ETF inflows or further whale accumulation) to absorb the $92.4k unwinding orders and push the price to effectively stand above it, this will be an extremely important positive signal. It not only relieves the pressure on STH, but may also trigger short-covering and FOMO sentiment of off-market funds, accelerating price increases.

• Previously, “huge outflows” meant that whales were extremely aggressive in accumulating and locking up chips at low prices regardless of cost. Now, “relatively reduced” outflows may mean:

a. Has the most panic/most valuable phase passed? Whales may think that the phase when it is easiest to pick up cheap chips has passed, and their initial accumulation goals may have been partially achieved.

b. Tactical pause? They may be waiting for clearer market signals (such as macro news landing, price direction confirmation) before making the next large-scale operation.

c. Changes in the way of accumulating funds? It may be a shift from withdrawing funds from centralized trading platforms to more covert OTC transactions or other methods. The marginal reduction in whale outflows means that the "fire" of the strongest active buying force in the market may weaken in the short term. This may make it more difficult to break through the $92.4k pressure wall or prolong the market's consolidation time in the current area. This is not necessarily a bearish signal (because there is still a net outflow), but it implies that the possibility of relying on whales for "violent pull-ups" in the short term is decreasing.

• If outflows continue to decrease or even turn into net inflows: This will be a strong warning signal, indicating that the whales' willingness to accumulate has reversed, the market may face real selling pressure, and the previously constructed bullish logic will be severely weakened.

• If outflows remain at a “relatively reduced” level: the market may enter a phase dominated by other factors (such as ETF flows, retail sentiment, and news). Volatility may decrease, but the sense of direction may also be more ambiguous, requiring more time to bottom out or wait for catalysts.

• If outflows expand again: it will confirm that whales are only making a short-term adjustment and their willingness to accumulate is still strong, which will be extremely beneficial for the market to break through key resistance.

This "very large" single-day inflow occurred against the backdrop of strong macro risk aversion and price corrections, and was likely driven by the "risk-averse/ buy the dips" allocation needs of traditional capital, which viewed BTC as an alternative asset similar to gold. Its importance lies in proving that the ETF channel can still attract a large amount of funds under certain conditions, and this part of the funds may be more price sensitive.

• The key is sustainability: Is this pulse a one-day trip or the beginning of a new trend? This is directly related to whether the market can obtain sustained external liquidity.

• If the inflow continues: it will provide strong incremental buying to the market, greatly enhancing the ability to break through the $92.4k pressure wall and may attract more follow-up funds.

• If the inflow dries up quickly: it means that this is just a short-term stress response, and the market still needs to rely on internal forces (whales, LTH beliefs) to digest the selling pressure, and it will be more difficult to break through $92.4k.

This is the most solid and structurally significant positive signal. It is independent of short-term price fluctuations and sentiment, and reflects the deep and sustained supply lock-in trend in the market. This continued tightening of the supply side is a core positive in the medium and long term, and it continues to raise the supply threshold that needs to be overcome for future price increases. It is like a "slow variable", continuously providing support to the market, increasing the difficulty of deep callbacks, and laying the foundation for future supply squeezes. This can partially offset the uncertainty caused by STH pressure and short-term behavioral changes of whales.

Future Outlook:

The current market is at a critical juncture where STH pressure ($92.4k anchoring effect) and strong underlying accumulation (whale outflow + ISSR rapid growth + ETF pulse inflow) are in fierce competition.

Macro news (strong but unresolved expectations for rate cuts, geopolitical risks, Trump’s remarks, etc.) have added tremendous uncertainty and volatility to this confrontation.

• Evolution of the core shield:

Previously, it may have been a tug-of-war between long and short positions, but now it is more like "the willingness of trapped STHs to get out of the trap" vs "the determination of whales/long-term holders/new ETF funds to absorb funds."

• Reaction Path:

a. Short-term focus ($92.4k attack and defense): The reduced outflow of whales may make the short-term attack on $92.4k more dependent on the sustainability of ETF inflows and the patience of the ISSR accumulation effect. If the ETF inflow cannot be sustained and the whales do not re-emerge, it may be difficult to quickly break through $92.4k relying solely on the slow variables of ISSR (non-liquid whale), and the market may repeatedly seesaw in this area, consuming STH's patience.

b. If $92.4k cannot be taken for a long time: it may trigger a deeper desperate sell-off of STH. At that time, we need to observe whether whales will increase outflow again (buy on dips) and whether ISSR (non-liquid whale) can continue to grow rapidly to absorb this part of the supply. If whales do not take over or the growth rate of non-liquid whale slows down, the market may enter a deeper adjustment.

c. If $92.4k is effectively broken: it will greatly improve market sentiment and may trigger a positive feedback loop: STH pressure is relieved -> off-market funds enter the market due to confirmation of the breakthrough -> may stimulate continued inflow of ETFs -> price increases further strengthen the "hoarding" logic of ISSR -> whales may continue to increase holdings or lock in profits.

d. Macro "unique factors": Any clear signal about the Fed's policy (early rate cut/delayed rate cut/change in intensity) may instantly break the existing balance and become a key catalyst in determining the short-term direction.

Mid-term exploration

• Positive network sentiment

• Analysis model of each price structure

• ETH trading platform circulation ratio

• Unilateral status of derivatives

• Long-term and short-term holding supply

There are signs of recovery in the online sentiment, and the sentiment in the market may be recovering slowly. Judging from the recent situation, if the recovery continues, a better right-side structure may emerge.

The current stock limit is around 95,000, and the market may face greater profit spillover pressure as it gradually approaches this price. At the same time, the short-term cost line is currently around 920,000, which may be the upper limit price that is closer to the stock limit.

Currently, the proportion of BTC circulating in the trading platform is higher. Usually, in this state, it means that the market will focus on BTC, and the relatively good circulation efficiency also increases the smoothness of turnover. Similarly, from another perspective, under the trend of continuous accumulation of BTC, the concentration of liquidity in the market on BTC can also reflect a certain risk aversion tendency.

This data is produced by WTR based on the liquidation status of BTC.

Blue is the short-term strong stage, and orange is the long-term strong stage. Currently, it is in the long-term strong range.

From the perspective of the market, the volume of short-term chips is still low, and the market is still in a state of increasing long-term chips. It is possible that the current speculative atmosphere is gradually dissipating, and the chips held in the relatively long term are increasing.

Short-term observation

• Derivatives risk factor

• Option intention transaction ratio

• Derivatives trading volume

• Option Implied Volatility

• Profit and loss transfer volume

• New addresses and active addresses

• Net position of BTC Trading Platform

• Net position of ETH trading platform

• High-weight selling pressure

• Global purchasing power status

• Stablecoin trading platform net position

• Off-chain trading platform data

Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the red area, and the derivatives risk is increasing.

The BTC price has rebounded slightly, and the market has not yet been completely squeezed out, and the risk factor is in the red zone. For the current market environment, there may be a continuous short squeeze this week, and even if it is possible, the magnitude will be relatively low.

Both the put option ratio and trading volume have declined, and the current put option ratio is at a medium-high level.

Derivatives trading volume is at a medium-low level.

There is no significant change in the implied volatility of options in the short term. Sentiment rating: Neutral

The market's positive sentiment (blue line) and panic sentiment (orange line) are still at low levels. It is expected that even if there is a rebound in the future, the short-term space will be limited.

The number of newly added active addresses is at a low level.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, BTC continues to outflow in large quantities, while ETH only has a small outflow.

There is currently a large outflow of BTC.

On the surface, the net position in the ETH trading platform is continuously flowing out, but in fact, observing the blue line, the net position balance in the ETH trading platform is almost the same as the market peak in December. In the short term, the selling pressure on ETH will continue to exist.

There is no high-weight selling pressure.

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and stablecoin purchasing power remains flat.

Purchasing power recovered slightly last week, but it has entered a state of loss again this week.

The purchasing power of stablecoins as a whole remained the same as last week.

Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 80,000; there is a willingness to sell at 92,000.

There is willingness to buy at a price around 70,000~80,000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 90,000 and 95,000.

There is willingness to buy at a price around 70,000~80,000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 92,000.

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 70,000 and 83,000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 92000.

This week’s summary:

Summary of the news:

The current market is shrouded in deep macro uncertainty, which is confirmed by the sharp contrast between the significant pressure on the US stock market and the soaring gold prices and the record highs. Strong risk aversion dominates the traditional capital market. The focus is almost entirely on the Federal Reserve. Political pressure (especially from Trump's continued attacks on Powell) and the market's extremely high expectations for interest rate cuts are intertwined, making the future monetary policy path a core variable affecting the overall situation.

Against this backdrop, the crypto asset sector, especially Bitcoin, presents a complex and differentiated picture: on the one hand, it has shown a certain resilience in the macro storm, with U.S. spot ETF capital flows recently turning from significant net outflows to weak net inflows, a key marginal improvement signal that indicates that the selling pressure from traditional channels has been temporarily eased and the market has gained a respite at a key position; on the other hand, this stabilization is not due to strong new demand, but is in sharp contrast to the "firm behavior of core participants" - institutions such as MicroStrategy and on-chain "whale" addresses are still continuing to accumulate chips in large amounts, showing strong long-term beliefs, while small holders are showing an outflow trend.

At the same time, the marginal improvement in the US regulatory environment also provides potential long-term support for the market. Therefore, the current core contradiction lies in the "tug-of-war between external macro pressure and internal structural forces (ETF stabilization, core players' increased holdings, and improved supervision)", which makes the market likely to continue to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, be highly sensitive to macro signals (especially the Fed's movements), and wait for clearer catalysts to break the deadlock.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. The current price is running below the average cost of short-term holders (about $92.4k), which brings paper loss pressure to recent entrants and may form a wall of selling pressure around $92.4k due to the anchoring effect.

2. The dominant signal in the near term is that whale have been net outflowing Bitcoin from trading platforms on a large scale, which shows a strong strategic accumulation intention and optimism about future prices, significantly reducing the large amount of supply available for sale in the short term.

3. After experiencing weakness, ETFs have recently seen a very significant single-day large net inflow, indicating that demand from compliant channels has seen a strong pulse-like recovery, injecting important buying power into the market.

4. The proportion of illiquid whale continues to rise steeply, indicating that BTC is still being locked up for a long time and out of circulation at a high speed, and the fundamentals of the market supply continuing to shrink rapidly are extremely solid.

• Market setting tone:

The core feature of the current market state is the sharp contrast and fierce confrontation between the surface price pressure (below the short-term holder cost line) and the extremely strong underlying on-chain accumulation (large withdrawals by whale, illiquid whale demand lock-in, ETF demand pulse). This shows that the market is experiencing a deep correction or "washout" dominated by strong buying power. The "weak hands" who entered the market recently are under pressure, while the "strong hands" who are optimistic about the long-term are actively absorbing and locking in supply, and the supply and demand fundamentals tend to be extremely tight. Therefore, although the competition around the key cost level (about $92.4k) may bring volatility in the short term, the overwhelming positive signals on the chain indicate that the market is likely to digest the pressure, confirm the bottom, and accumulate strength for the next stage of the upward trend based on the strengthened fundamentals.

On-chain mid-term exploration:

• Network sentiment is slowly recovering, and right-side structural opportunities may emerge.

• The upper limit of stock is around 95,000, and profit pressure will be high when approaching; the short-term cost is 92,000, which may constitute a resistance level.

• BTC dominates the circulation of trading platforms, with smooth turnover and a clear risk aversion tendency.

• The WTR liquidation status shows that it is currently in a strong bull phase.

• The short-term speculative atmosphere has decreased, and long-term holdings have increased.

• Market setting tone:

Repair, Accumulate

The market is seeking stability, sentiment is gradually stabilizing, BTC dominates liquidity, and long-term holdings are increasing.

On-chain short-term observations:

1. The risk factor is in the red area, and the risk of derivatives increases.

2. The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.

3. Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.

1. The overall net position of the trading platform shows that BTC continues to outflow in large quantities, while ETH only has a small outflow.

2. Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and the purchasing power of stablecoins remains flat.

3. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 80,000 and a willingness to sell at 92,000.

4. The probability that the price will not fall below 70,000-75,000 in the short term is 80%; the probability that the price will not rise below 90,000-95,000 in the short term is 70%.

• Market setting tone:

The market will continue to be dominated by BTC, and the market sentiment remains neutral. This week, it is expected that without external news stimulation, the market rebound space will still be limited by the suppression of the short-term holder cost line (92K).

Risk Warning: The above are market discussions and explorations and do not have any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.

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