Arthur Hayes: In-depth analysis of how the tariff war affects the Treasury market and why BTC will hit new highs

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Chainfeeds Guide:

Once Bitcoin breaks through the historical high of $110,000, it is likely to surge. Chinese version compiled and published by Jinse Finance.

Article Source:

https://www.jinse.cn/blockchain/3712815.html

Article Author:

Arthur Hayes


Perspective:

Arthur Hayes: When Trump was skiing, a steep slope suddenly dropped, triggering an avalanche. Now, we finally know the extent of pain or volatility the Trump administration could withstand before implementing policies that would mitigate any market perception of negative impacts on the foundations of fiat financial systems (MOVE index). This will trigger a policy response that will increase the available USD fiat supply for purchasing US Treasury bonds. If the increase in repurchase frequency and scale is insufficient to calm the market, the Federal Reserve will ultimately find a way to ease policy. They have already said they would do so. Most importantly, they lowered the rate of quantitative tightening (QT) at their recent March meeting, which is forward-looking and favorable to USD liquidity. However, beyond quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve can do more. Here is a short list of procedural policies that are not quantitative easing but can enhance the market's ability to absorb new bond issuances; one of which may be announced at the Federal Reserve meeting on May 6-7: exempting banks from Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) requirements for Treasury bonds. This allows banks to use unlimited leverage to purchase Treasury bonds. As you can see, I am very bullish on Bitcoin. At Maelstrom, we have maximized our cryptocurrency positions. Now, everything revolves around buying and selling different cryptocurrencies to accumulate Bitcoin. During the downturn when Bitcoin price dropped from $110,000 to $74,500, the largest buying volume was Bitcoin. Bitcoin will continue to lead the market as the direct beneficiary of more USD circulation brought by monetary liquidity injected to mitigate the impact of US-China decoupling. Today, the international community sees Trump as a madman brutally wielding tariff weapons, and any investor holding US stocks and bonds is looking for something with anti-establishment value. Physically, that is gold. Digitally, that is Bitcoin. Gold has never been seen as a high-beta version of US tech stocks; therefore, it performed well as the oldest anti-establishment financial hedge tool during the overall market crash. Bitcoin will break away from its connection with US tech stocks and rejoin gold's "only rising" lineup. Once Bitcoin breaks through its historical high of $110,000, it is likely to surge, further consolidating its dominance. Perhaps it won't rise to $200,000. Then, Bitcoin will start rotating into Altcoins. Altcoin season (AltSzn: Chikun), go! Besides those shiny new Altcoin metadata, the best-performing tokens are those that can both earn profits and return profits to stakers. Such projects are few and far between. Maelstrom has been working to accumulate positions in certain qualified tokens and has not yet completed purchasing these gems. They are gems because they were hit hard like all other shit coins in the recent sell-off, but unlike 99% of dog shit projects, these gems actually have paying customers. Due to the large number of tokens, it is impossible to convince the market to give your project another chance after launching tokens on CEX in Down Only mode. Altcoin treasure hunters want higher staking APY, with rewards coming from actual profits, because these cash flows are sustainable. To sell our product, I will write a full article to introduce some of these projects and why we believe their cash flows will continue to grow in the near future. Until then, back up the truck and buy everything!

Content Source

https://chainfeeds.substack.com

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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