The stock market and the cryptocurrency market soared across the board. What happened last night?

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Sorting out the timeline, below sorted by Beijing time.

  • 11:59 (early morning); Bessent said that the current situation is unsustainable and will cool down with China soon; Chinese concept stocks surged + gold slightly dropped + Nasdaq rose + BTC didn't move much.
  • In between, Politico jumped out and said that completing negotiations might take months.Then the White House jumped out again (seemingly wanting to maintain some positivity)
  • Around 5:17 (after market), Trump said he has no intention of firing Powell;
  • Around 5:22, Trump said tariffs with China won't be 145%, and will be significantly reduced, but not to zero; Chinese concept stocks continued to surge + gold showed a significant drop + Nasdaq rose + BTC rose;

What was the market's first reaction?

The market felt "relieved";As it was after market hours, futures rose,

Gold dropped + BTC rose (Is this wanting both "digital gold" and risk assets?)

US dollar also rose

What's worth noting next?

Everyone is used to Trump's words. People's marginal sensitivity to Bessent's words has also lowered;But why such a big reaction?Let's look at some narrative background.

1/ Last night, Politico said the White House is about to reach negotiation agreements with Japan and India, although details are still unclear (unsurprisingly)(we reported the details with India immediately at market opening); Although there's no result, it somewhat paved the way for last night's eased atmosphere (the market is eager to see one or two negotiation templates);

2/ After Easter, liquidity returns + shorts are ready to take profits (we mentioned on April 20th that shorts must be cautious because "negotiation easing" can come anytime; However, how defensive stocks like Netflix are so strong is unexpected);

3/ The market is now "subjectively" eager to hear good news, selectively blocking out the bad news that "any negotiation lacks details, any negotiation needs months"。So if the situation reverses in a couple of days (or even hours), don't be surprised. How can we tell? Although headlines are numerous and volatile, institutional trading volume is actually low (everyone is in a wait-and-see/profit-taking state).

4/ BTC is worth paying attention to. Everyone has been talking about gold these past few days, but we specifically mentioned BTC for the first time in years in our April 21st article.

Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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