Many people did not catch up with the recent surge, but I think there's no need to be anxious. As previously mentioned, this wave should be formed by the joint action of futures position liquidation and gold topping overflow. Currently, the price has reached MA120 at 917, and even if it rises further, it would be MA140 at 928 or the previous high psychological level of 95. Chasing the high is not cost-effective. Those who bought at 74 can gradually take profits, and those who didn't should wait for the next opportunity. The US economic crisis has not been resolved, and BTC's hedging capability has not been fully verified. If the crisis intensifies, the true final dip will still come.
At present, this market trend is still within the logic of the drop from 4.6 to 74000, whether it's 93 or 95, it still hasn't jumped out of the previous script. This means that the rise and fall are still at Trump's whim, and the fundamentals have not essentially changed. Yesterday, Trump could create negative sentiment with tariffs and threats to Powell, today he could ease and create positive sentiment by digesting the previous negative news, and tomorrow he could continue to come up with new ways to create negative sentiment.
Next, we'll see the extent of Trump's determination and ability to reform. Although his hundred-day renovation ended in failure, neither raising tariffs nor forcing the Federal Reserve to cut rates was ultimately realized. However, the industrial capital represented by Trump's efforts to promote industrial backflow through a weak dollar and attack US stocks and financial capital's strong dollar to promote capital backflow has not stopped. Trump is just temporarily bowing down in the face of stock, debt, and exchange rate triple kill, but with his personality, it's hard for him to give up.
We should neither be happy with rises nor sad with falls. This means we can't be bullish when it rises and bearish when it falls. As long as Trump is in office, we can't set our perspective for a day. We need to observe the market momentum more. Whether upward or downward, once the momentum is exhausted, regardless of market sentiment at the time, it will definitely move in the opposite direction. After all, wealth is like water - blocking is not as good as diverting, and it will always flow in the better direction.
Let's see if funds will withdraw from BTC tonight to chase US stocks, another battle between technology stock attributes and storage value attributes.
It is still a rebound, not a reversal.
