Gold soars to break through $3,450. Can Bitcoin break free from the "curse" of U.S. stocks?

On April 22, 2025, a "risk-averse frenzy" swept through the financial markets. Spot gold prices broke through $3,450 per ounce, reaching a historic high with an annual increase of over $820. Simultaneously, New York gold futures surpassed $3,500, leaving the market on on the edge of its seat for Bitcoin (BTC), dubbed "digital gold," the question remains whether it can break free from its high correlation with US stocks and establish its own independent trend? This article article will explore this issue by examining gold's Bitcoin's rising logic and the correlation between Bitcoin. Gold's "Madness": The "Waterloo" of US Dollar Credit Credit Gold's price surge serves as a signal illuminating the dark corners of the global financial market. On April 22, spot gold broke through $3,450 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.76% and a cumulative annual increase of over $820. New York gold futures broke the $3,500 mark, showing strong upward momentum. Many might first think of geopolitical conflicts - Ukraine situation, Middle East tensions, escalating global conflicts... However, the reality is far more complex. Historical data shows that local conflicts have limited impact on gold prices. What truly drives gold prices skyward are systemic, global risks. This time, the real driver behind gold's crazy rise is the collapse of US dollar credit. The US dollar, as the cornerstone of the global financial system, has weathered numerous crises over decades. But now, this foundation is visibly loosening. Global monetary system's total funds are astronomical, and even if just 1% of investors lose confidence in the US dollar, the scale of funds "voting with their feet" could shock the market. More specifically, the collapse of US dollar credit is closely related to the current macroeconomic environment. Citibank's latest prediction suggests the Federal Reserve might cut rates for the first time in June, potentially reducing the federal funds rate to 3%-3.25% by the This reflects signs of US economic weakness and a policy shift from fighting inflation to supporting the economy. Moreover, Trump's continued pressure on Fed Chairman Powell has intensified market uncertainty. KCM Trade's chief market analyst Tim Waterer noted that concerns about tariffs and the dispute between Trump and Powell have led investors to avoid US assets, with gold fully exploiting the dollar's predicament. Bitcoin and Gold: Once "Close Allies" gold surging Bitcoin, as "digital gold," also ride this wave of risk arisk? To answer this, we need to examine the price correlation between Bitcoin and gold. A chart fromNewHedge clearly shows the 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold (XAU) over the past five years. The gray line represents Bitcoin's price, the orange line represents gold's price, and the blue line indicates their correlation coefficient. From 2020 to 2025, Bitcoin and gold's correlation experienced significant fluctuations but generally showed a "high-to-low" trend. Between 2020 and 2022, their correlation approached 0.5, indicating strong positive correlation. However, from 2022 onwards, the correlation began to decline, especially after 2023. This divergence is largely due to Bitcoin's high correlation with US stocks. In recent years, Bitcoin's price has been significantly linked to the Nasdaq index, almost becoming a "for shadow asset" tech stocks." As of 2025, Bitcoin has broken through the000,000, upward momentum.. The chart shows that Bitcoin and gold's correlation slightly recovered in the second half of 2024. Does this mean Bitcoin is breaking free from US stocks and returning to its "safe-haven asset" role? The answer is "possibly, but more observation is needed." On one hand, the collapse of US dollar credit and global economic uncertainty uncertainty uncertainty provide opportunities for Bitcoin to "dance with gold." On Bitcoin's stocks correlation with US stocks has stocks has not completely disappeared.importantly, to to truly establish an independent trend, Bitcoin needs to undergo a "identity transformation" in market perception. has accumulated thousands of years of "risk-aconsensus" building in human history. Bitcoin, called "digital gold," is only 16 16 years old and still viewed as a high-risk asset by many investors.Gold's reveals a profound signal: The US dollar-dominated international monetary system faces an unprecedented crisis of confidence. Bitcoin stands at a a historical crossroads. In the short term, gold still has room for growth. Tim Waterer mentioned that despite this month's rapid increase, economic uncertainty will continue to attract buyers. gold.'s trend may be complex be it could rise in sync with gold due to risk-averse sentiment or or face pressure from US stock adjustments.market remains uncertain.

In the long run, if Bitcoin wants to become a true "digital gold," it needs validation from both time and the market. Perhaps we are witnessing the end of an era - the twilight of US dollar hegemony; at the same time, it is also the dawn of a new order - where gold and Bitcoin shine together.