Article Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
Bitcoin has been in continuous oscillation for nearly two months, and today (Beijing time, April 22), it finally successfully rebounded and broke through the position above $87,000, with the price remaining around $88,100 at the time of writing. As shown in the following image.
Meanwhile, spot gold prices have also continued to break through historical highs, reaching $3,483 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.73%, as shown in the following image.
However, unlike Bitcoin and gold, the three major U.S. stock indexes continued to collectively decline. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 index fell 2.36% intraday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.48% intraday, and the Nasdaq Composite index fell 2.55% intraday.
In short, at the current stage of the market, the correlation between Bitcoin, gold, and stocks (mainly U.S. stocks) seems to have become a focus of attention. Today, I also saw online KOLs saying that Bitcoin will begin to break away from U.S. stocks and enter an independent market phase...
I believe this conclusion might be a bit premature. Overall, we believe that Bitcoin cannot completely break away from the U.S. stock market trend in the short term and will still be influenced to some extent. The reason why Bitcoin can currently break away from U.S. stocks and show a temporary independent trend is likely due to gold rising too much, causing some overflow funds to choose to flow into Bitcoin (including new net inflows of ETF funds in the past two days). However, this demand is highly likely to be short-term, and we cannot rule out that these quickly inflowing funds may also quickly flow out. Nevertheless, from a longer time perspective, this also demonstrates Bitcoin's potential, and the current short-term purchasing power (especially from main buyers) may become the main new force for Bitcoin buying in the future.
In terms of price, from a long-term perspective, Bitcoin will definitely continue to rise, and we will always maintain this view.
In the short term, although the K-line shows that Bitcoin has currently rebounded and broken through the resistance level around $87,000 and broken through the downward channel since the beginning of the year, as shown in the following image, considering macro and policy factors (to be mentioned later), we believe that the next few weeks will likely be accompanied by relatively large fluctuations, and the risk of pullback still needs to be noted. It seems too early to discuss that Bitcoin is about to usher in a new round of comprehensive rise. If you continue to be optimistic about the market's potential opportunities this year, then during the oscillation period, positions at 82,000, 79,000, 74,000, and 72,000 (especially the 74,000-72,000 interval, which currently seems to be a short-term stage bottom) are still a good interval for gradual additional positions. And if you haven't yet developed a complete plan or thought about what to do, then as we always say: no one can accurately predict the short-term market trend, and before a new major trend is fully confirmed, the best operation might be to do nothing (or try with a small position).
The current trend of the crypto market seems to be more influenced by external factors, such as macroeconomic conditions, policies, and U.S. stock market performance, in addition to some market-specific influencing factors. In previous articles, we have discussed some market changes from different angles (including tariff policy perspectives). Next, we will continue to look at what events are worth paying attention to in the coming weeks from several other aspects:
1. Macro Data Aspect
Whether it's the stock market or the crypto market, they are currently largely influenced by the macroeconomic environment. Although the impact of Trump's tariff war has not yet been reflected in key economic data at this stage (with some lag), we still need to appropriately pay attention to some important economic data involving inflation, employment, and other aspects (here we only discuss U.S. data).
Here we highlight a few key points:
On April 30 at 10 AM (all times mentioned below are Eastern Time), the March PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) data will be released. This is an inflation-related indicator that the Federal Reserve pays close attention to, and the core PCE may affect future interest rate change decisions by Fed officials. Typically, if PCE data is higher than expected, it is considered that inflationary pressure is rising, which may lead to increased financial market volatility; if PCE data is lower than expected, it indicates reduced inflationary pressure and may help monetary easing policies and benefit the market.
On May 2 at 8:30 AM, the April NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) data will be released. This data is also important because it may directly reflect some direct impacts since Trump's tariff policy, and employment data is also one of the key focuses of the Federal Reserve. Changes in employment data help the market anticipate or discuss changes in the Fed's interest rate policy. Typically, strong employment data will boost the U.S. dollar, while the opposite may cause the dollar to weaken and trigger larger market fluctuations. Currently, the market seems to be conservative about April's employment growth, with many analysts generally predicting that the number of new jobs will be lower than in March.
The FOMC meeting on May 7 at 2:00 PM seems to be one of the most anticipated FOMC meetings this year and the first FOMC meeting after Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" (Trump announced comprehensive tariffs on imported U.S. products on April 2, which he also called Liberation Day). However, based on the current Fed Watch tool, the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-5% unchanged, but people are more focused on or expecting the Fed's stance, and it depends on what Powell will say at the press conference at 2:30 PM that day.
On May 13 at 8:30 AM, the April CPI (Consumer Price Index) data will be released. CPI and the PCE we mentioned earlier are both important indicators used by the Federal Reserve to measure inflation. Typically, CPI higher than expected may scare the stock and crypto markets (because people worry that monetary policy will continue to be tight), while data lower than expected means it is beneficial to the market. However, the upcoming CPI data may show some contradictory effects: due to the impact of the tariff war, based on various online reports, China has been strongly counterattacking, thereby driving up commodity prices within the U.S., causing American consumers to start panic hoarding. This panic hoarding may temporarily push up CPI, but if this situation continues for a longer time, it seems to further aggravate price pressure, thus leading to a CPI decline, creating a contradictory effect.
On May 15 at 8:30 AM, the retail sales data for April will be announced. Considering the current global trade policy changes and consumer behavior shifts mentioned above, this data may have some significant impact on the market. Typically, strong retail sales data might indicate good growth (optimistic business profitability prospects), while unexpected data decline could trigger concerns about economic recession. However, if combined with data such as NFP and CPI, there might be some contradictions in the short term.
Of course, in addition to the data mentioned above, key economic data for countries like China and Japan are worth paying appropriate attention to. However, as we mentioned earlier, macroeconomic data often has a certain lag, market may first focus on the favorable/unfavorable expectations based on these data, and these expectations will directly reflect in market prices.
2. Earnings Season
The arrival of the US corporate earnings season may have some impact on risk markets (stock market,ility including crypto market), especially under the current global tariff policy background, many large institutions may readjust their future profitability and capital expenditure budgets.
For example, Tesla will announce its first-quarter earnings report at 5 PM on April 22, Alphabet will announce its first-earnings at 5 at5April , Microsoft will announce its first announce its first-quarter earnings at April 5 will announce its first-its earnings 5 PM on May 1... and so on.
3. Policy Regulation
On April 21, the, announced that atkins as the SEC chairman, becoming the 34th chairman in the agency's history. The market generally expects that compared to Gary Gensler, the former chairman the administrationkins nominated by, the SEC more-friendly.
Additionally, a series of roundtable meetings organized by the SEC Crypto continue this month, including key issues for custodians on on April 25, asset on-chain and traditional financial on May 12, and DeFi and American spirit on June 6, as shown in the figure below.
There is also also important legislation for stablecoins,cowe have mentioned in previous articles. Trump hopes to complete the signing of stablecoin legislation by August this year.. The the active promotion of stablecoin legislation essentially hopes to continue to expand the US dollar's dominance.
(From an intuitive perspective, events (impacts from various, message levels) determine the the the flow determines the corresponding target price trend, price trend determines most people's and emotions, and's determine their capital flow...is Whether the policy factors, economic data factors, or other message-level factors discussed above the are short-term (including medium-term) factors affecting Bitcoin's trend. From a long-term perspective, with the passage of ETF, deeper participation of of major institutions the,ual and regulatory progress in some countries (mainly the US), and major countries' Bitcoin strategic reserve plans... Bitcoin's-'s chip structure seems to be undersome fundamental changes or transition or transition. Theoretically (including from on chain data changes), retail investors' Bitcoin will only become and Bitcoin's future price will only only be higher (higher or a price range suitable for institutions and enter a long cycle oscillation).<'s, the sources of images/data involved in in the text have been supplemented in the Notion of Original, the above content is only a personal perspective and and analysis, for learning records and communication purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice.Article source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P5fxsxFWE7c45YiyIv5T4Q
