Policy easing, funds waiting and watching: hidden pressure behind the stabilization of the crypto market

Here is the English translation: In recent weeks, the global financial markets have shown signs of gradual recovery under the intertwined influence of macroeconomic policies and political events. President Trump's softened attitude towards tariff strategies, combined with potential interest rate cut signals from the Federal Reserve, created a short-term breathing space for overall risk assets, with the cryptocurrency market experiencing a structural rebound accordingly. Despite the price recovery, observations of on-chain data and capital flows suggest that most traders and institutions remain cautious, with slow capital entry, indicating that the market has not yet entered a comprehensive recovery phase. Over the past few weeks, the U.S. and global macroeconomic environment have become increasingly complex. Besides Trump's easing of tariff strategies and the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut possibilities, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered global GDP projections in mid-April, citing reasons such as delayed manufacturing recovery, geopolitical disruptions, and escalating trade frictions, further reflecting the uncertainty of global economic recovery. The U.S. Treasury yield curve remains inverted, and the U.S. 10-year bond yield quickly fell below 4.5% in mid-April, signaling market concerns about future growth. Capital flowing back to gold and cash positions also highlights the reshuffling of asset allocation strategies. Notably, gold prices briefly exceeded $3,385 per ounce this week, reaching a new historical high, reflecting that risk aversion has not completely subsided and creating a contradictory dual-track structure with risk asset rebounds. Overall, while policy signals have become more friendly, there are still significant perception differences among market participants. Some institutions conservatively increase cash and gold positions, while risk-seeking funds gradually replenish assets with higher price volatility, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies. The current market situation does not represent a comprehensive bullish sentiment but rather a dynamic psychological repricing. On April 9th, Trump announced a temporary suspension of some tariffs targeting China, which the market interpreted as a easing of tensions, boosting global stocks and crypto assets. This policy tone continued this week, with Federal Reserve officials also signaling potential interest rate cuts. In this context, the S&P 500 index rose nearly 2.3%, with Nasdaq rising over 3% for the week. Bit prices gradually increased from around $83,600 on April 14th to $87,300 today (4/21), a weekly increase of approximately 4.4%. However, many analysts caution that policy signals and data remain volatile, with the PCE inflation data to be released at the end of April and the upcoming employment report before the next FOMC meeting being crucial in determining whether market risk appetite will continue.

On-Chain and Derivatives Market: Trading Momentum and Structure Remain Weak

On-chain data has not synchronized with price recovery, reflecting that overall market participation has not yet been restored. According to CryptoQuant data, as of April 20, the number of active Bitcoin addresses remained below 900,000, a decrease of over 20% compared to the March peak. The on-chain average transaction fee continues to be below $1.2, indicating weak trading density and competition.

Regarding stablecoins, the net inflow on exchanges remains sluggish, with small outflows from April 17 to April 20, showing that while funds are not significantly withdrawing, they are also not forming large-scale buying support. Some analysts point out that although stablecoin supply has rebounded since December last year, most remain in DeFi protocols or non-exchange wallets, reflecting that current market participants are more inclined to wait and observe rather than actively building positions.

The Fear and Greed Index has gradually rebounded from 26 on April 14 to 34, which, while escaping the extreme fear zone, still indicates that most investors maintain a conservative attitude and lack active entry momentum. On-chain data has not synchronized with price recovery, reflecting that overall market participation has not yet been restored. According to CryptoQuant data, as of April 20, the number of active Bitcoin addresses remains below 900,000, a decrease of over 20% compared to the March peak. The on-chain average transaction fee continues to be below $1.2, indicating weak trading density and competition.

On the institutional side, some major exchanges and market makers continue their hedging deployment strategy from the beginning of the year, maintaining capital flexibility and risk exposure control, and have not yet entered a clear position-building phase. Large on-chain addresses are mainly focused on range arbitrage and serving as Liquidity Providers (LP) in the short term, indicating that the current market lacks a clear price directional expectation.

Individual Trend and Narrative Observation: Bitcoin, ETH, and Solana Stabilize, but Narrative Gaps Remain Unaddressed

Although Bitcoin's price has gradually rebounded to $87,300 this week, it remains oscillating in the range of $84,000–$88,000. On-chain data shows no significant increase in activity, reflecting that this round of rebound is mainly due to short-term fund replenishment or technical correction, and has not triggered a new trend. From the derivatives market perspective, funding rates turned positive from April 19 but did not lead to significant expansion of open interest, with leveraged funds maintaining low-risk allocation.

For ETH, the Ethereum price rebounded to around $1,650 this week, with a weekly increase of about 5%. However, the narrative momentum after the Shanghai upgrade has significantly weakened, and market expectations for L2 scaling and AI integration have not formed a driving force. Some analysts believe that the delayed ETF progress and lack of major mainnet technical updates are also important factors suppressing capital inflow.

Solana's price has maintained a consolidation pattern over the past three weeks, oscillating between $120–$140. It briefly surged during the US trading session this week but subsequently pulled back, indicating that major funds have not entered significantly. Despite positive news such as Visa's expanded integration and Helium network growth, these have not translated into sustained buying. Market observers believe Solana needs to wait for TVL and user growth to restart narrative rotation.

The narrative layer continues the "weekly narrative" short-cycle phenomenon from last week. AI asset heat has not expanded, with only sporadic funds short-term trading in low-market-cap projects. While RWA topics continue to attract institutional attention, actual trading and development data have not yet broken through. The Non-Fungible Token market remains low, reflecting that investor risk appetite has not warmed up, and the overall narrative main line is still waiting to take shape.

Overall, despite a friendlier policy environment and mainstream cryptocurrency prices bottoming and rebounding, the lack of a penetrative and sustainable narrative main line remains the core issue causing the current market's wait-and-see stance.

Market Repair Appears, but Key Observations Remain Unresolved

Although the market experienced a technical rebound this week and macro policy tone has notably softened, from on-chain data, capital structure, and narrative momentum perspectives, the market still lacks core driving force capable of turning the trend. A true structural recovery still depends on policy clarity, capital inflow restart, and the regrouping of narratives and application innovations.

During this transitional period, both institutions and retail investors should focus on patiently waiting for signal confirmation rather than chasing uncertain rebounds. Next week will bring more US economic data releases, including PCE and employment reports, which may become key variables determining whether market risk appetite can be further repaired.

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