So how big (of a rise)? Well, multiple indicators are flashing simultaneously, some of which rarely occur together, and some haven't appeared since BTC's last major rally. This article will analyze them one by one.
3-Day MACD Indicator Shows Bullish Crossover
One of the strongest short to medium-term signals is the bullish crossover on the 3-day MACD indicator.
When did this last happen?
In September 2023 - just before BTC surged from below $60,000 to over $100,000, and this is no coincidence. Historically, these crossovers have signaled significant rebounds - with data showing that in nearly 6 instances of this signal, 5 triggered strong upward movements.
We've just experienced another one.
200-Day EMA Battle
BTC is engaged in an intense struggle near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which will be a crucial watershed in determining trend continuation. We've been oscillating around this level for several days. If BTC can cleanly break through and hold above this moving average, it would be a classic confirmation signal of a bull market trend resumption.
If it is strongly rejected, then... we will return to "Goblin Town" (indicating a significant price drop) for some time.
We are on the edge, eyes wide open.
Attempt to Break Through Major Downtrend Line
Careful observation of the daily chart reveals that BTC is attempting to break through a long-term downtrend line formed since January 2024. If successful, market sentiment could quickly turn optimistic.
Weekly RSI Indicator About to Break Through
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) again shows signs of recovery. Why is this important?
In October 2023 and September 2024, the RSI broke through the downtrend line, followed by immediate and explosive rebounds - each time pushing BTC to new highs. If this breakthrough is confirmed, we might see a similar scenario.
Miner Hash Rate Indicator Sends Clear Buy Signal
The miner hash rate indicator has also issued a clear buy signal. This unique indicator designed for cryptocurrencies identifies market bottoms by monitoring miner behavior. While the absolute low point may have passed, history suggests that significant upside potential often follows this signal.
When the 30-day hash rate crosses above the 90-day hash rate, that's your buy signal.
Global Liquidity (M2) Is Surging
This is the most important signal. Global M2 money supply has just hit a historic new high. This is crucial - because cryptocurrencies are extremely sensitive to liquidity. When funds flow freely, risk assets surge. BTC thrives in a loose financial environment.
Now? The money printing machine is back in action.
Long-Term Fibonacci Expansion Target
From a long-term technical perspective, BTC's 2.618 Fibonacci expansion level points to $156,000. In the previous bull market, BTC pulled back after touching the 1.618 level (around $100,000), and now the market is gathering strength to challenge the next key target.
Of course, the market still faces many uncertainties. Some technical indicators have not fully turned bullish, macro economic concerns (including trade friction, recession risks, and bond market volatility) persist, and market sentiment remains fragile and could shift due to unexpected events. But as the market adage goes: "Buying when it feels safe is often too late."
Although these signals cannot guarantee a 100% rise, when they appear collectively, they often indicate that the market is at a critical turning point. We are still in the most favorable upward stage of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, with the global liquidity environment improving, and technical and on-chain indicators sending positive signals. While no one can confirm whether BTC will directly hit the target of $156,000, for investors who believe in market cycles, now may be the last opportunity to prepare for the next surge.
