Why doesn’t BTC follow the US stock market and gold? Will the narrative logic of BTC digital gold become a reality in 25 years?

As I write more and more, I'll post it first. Although a lot of the content in the back is just ground up without complete cases and logic, I'll use it as a bedtime read to sort out what happened in the past two weeks. You're welcome to discuss. This week, the global financial market was relatively stable, as the 90-day tariff suspension last week led to a wave of restorative rebounds. However, except for gold which continued to set new historical highs, the stock, foreign exchange and bond markets of various countries collectively showed signs of boredom, coldness and decline. Because the current global market sentiment has to dance with Trump's baton, once he admits defeat, the world will immediately stop. In this special historical period, it is not meaningful to study the market only from a micro perspective (the amplitude is too small). We continue to raise the perspective and analyze the current problems and hidden market risks faced by the United States from a macro perspective. The key to global problems lies in the United States, and the key to American problems lies in Trump. Trump's problem is that he makes decisions based on his ambitions but lacks the ability. In his first term, the elites of all countries in the world had never seen such a situation of a turtle punching randomly, but they were fooled by him for a long time. However, as time went on, Trump's true nature of a donkey from Guizhou was inevitably exposed. The tigers in Guizhou had never seen the posture of a donkey before, so they would be cautious at first, but once they knew that you only had one move, the back kick, then they would be sorry. Trump's version of the Hundred Days Reform undoubtedly ended in failure, laying the foundation for his current term of office to start high and end low. Since the last term, most of the traditional political and academic elites have been concentrated in the establishment. Unless they are frustrated, they rarely take the initiative to join Trump. Navarro and his ilk have been in jail for the organization, and their loyalty is worthy of praise. They are basically at the level of a folk economist. In this cabinet, only Bensont is considered to be a professional, but his resume is more dependent on Soros's endorsement, and his energy is not at the same level as Yellen Powell and other bigwigs with friends and relatives all over the world. Friends who have watched "Yes, Prime Minister" know that it is difficult to govern by relying solely on political officials and getting rid of administrative officials. What Trump can do next must be judged by how much the grassroots staff in the United States can implement. No matter how much Trump brags, even if he talks the fish out of the water, what cannot be implemented will still not be implemented. For example, raising the tariff to 245% is not supported by either the customs system or the personnel, and the private economy cannot support it. It is just to satisfy the desire to fool the lower-level rednecks to brag about how powerful they are and maintain the illusion of a Celestial Empire. The United States is currently facing the financial difficulties that every empire will face at the end of its life. The lower-class people are gradually becoming gangsters, and the top-level state machinery cannot collect taxes. All finances are controlled by interest groups similar to the Donglin Party, and they have to use espionage methods to collect taxes violently through the use of factory managers. But now Supervisor Ma has hit a wall and is leaving in despair. The interest group headed by Powell is unwilling to make concessions. With powerful enemies and younger brothers outside eyeing them covetously, Trump is powerless to save the situation and will sooner or later have to compromise for the long-term interests of his family. In recent days, the world's focus has been on the struggle between Trump and Powell for dominance over economic and monetary policies. Trump's proposal is to bring down the US stock market to promote the return of capital, but not to bring down the US debt. In essence, it is walking on a tightrope and is extremely difficult to operate. Powell is actually watching from the sidelines. If Trump wins the tariff war, he might really help him, but now that Trump has lost, there is no way he will take the blame for him. Powell has only one year left in his term. Although he was nominated by Trump, since he has already offended Trump, there is no need to offend the international faction again. After all, pleasing Trump will not bring any practical benefits, and it will also affect his reputation or interest revolving door after leaving office. Just like Pound, he does not need to change his boss twice. At this point, the best solution is to stick to one path. He needs to maintain the professional, calm and independent image of the central bank, maintain the stability of the dollar hegemony, and show his ruthlessness. After all, a rational economic man who only looks at data is far more popular than an impulsive fool in the market. For Trump, his replacement can only be a mouth cannon. Not to mention that he cannot do the regular process, even if he uses his divine power of the three powers to manipulate the Supreme Court to pass the recall resolution. But paying such a high political price to break the independence of the Federal Reserve, making global capital completely lose confidence in the dollar, and stepping on the accelerator for the decline of hegemony is really too much of a loss. No matter how bad Trump is, he should know the pros and cons. The farce of changing people will most likely end up in a quibble. He will announce his victory and immediately start the next topic to divert attention. Among the three forces of Trump's local industry faction, Powell's international capital faction, and China, Trump is undoubtedly the weakest. He will definitely be the one who bows his head in the end. He really has no cards to play. He will most likely compromise before June, but it is so difficult to reach an agreement with him. Facing an opponent with no integrity is like a dog biting a hedgehog. In the end, Trump can only secretly pull out and swallow it and pretend that nothing happened. The Trump team is a makeshift team, not because of its bold policies, but because of its lack of organizational discipline and planning implementation. It is purely abstract, bad money drives out good money, all the staff are flatterers, their business capabilities are not good, and they have made a major misjudgment of China. I really thought about it for ten days and ten nights and still can't figure it out. How can Trump rashly start a tariff war with all countries without completing internal integration, the military and powerful departments don't buy it, DOGE can't be cut, the Federal Reserve doesn't buy it, and Japan doesn't buy it? This level is so high that even if the old Buddha were alive, he would call it an expert. China is ruled by the elites of the king ... Feasibility analysis of Trump taking down Powell Similar to the swing of the tariff war, Chuanzi first put extreme pressure on Weizi and then landed to pay the debt. You think he even postponed the tariff for 90 days, and he was sure that he didn't have the courage to touch Weizi. The consequences of the collapse of the US dollar hegemony are too great, and he can't bear it. If the Federal Reserve loses its independence, the market will sell US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar like crazy, leading to a real triple kill of stocks, currencies, and bonds. By then, the triple kill last week will be completely insignificant. The market generally expects that the price of gold will rise to 4,500 by then. The last time Nixon put pressure on the Federal Reserve, the consequence was stagflation. It was not until Reagan came to power that the violent interest rate hike from 1980 to 1986 to 22%, and the US dollar index was 164, which caused capital to flow back, especially winning the Cold War, which allowed the United States to completely get out of recession and stagflation. But this time, the hollowing out of the industry has led to the collapse of technological hegemony, military hegemony, and economic hegemony, and it will be difficult for the United States to win the showdown with China again. Moreover, Powell’s previous interest rate hikes could not control inflation. It is true that too much money has been printed, but the bigger problem is the shortage of goods. Trade barriers have caused the global use of US dollars to correspond to the products of the United States alone, with a mismatch of more than ten times. Even a 300% interest rate hike may not alleviate the problem. It will only cause the dollar to depreciate and completely withdraw from international settlement. The Sino-US compromise can quickly resolve the problems of both sides in the short term. Although it is only a delay, and the struggle will break out sooner or later, fighting and talking is still a permanent solution and has been put on the table of the leaders of the two countries. At present, it seems that Trump wants to find a way to make peace and even visited China this morning, but China has finally seized the opportunity for a strategic counterattack and will not compromise easily. What's even more terrifying is that the United States, with all its equipment, can't beat China. China doesn't have any vassal states or allies, and it's so strong even though it has basically no external strategic space except for its homeland. The United States reaped the dividends of World War I, World War II, and the Cold War, but it lost them all in 30 years. It's the weakest empire in history. I really don't know if this is a racial problem or a system problem. (dog head) A large number of U.S. debts will mature in June, but Trump actually has three options to choose from 1. Cutting interest rates and expanding the balance sheet, but Powell's cooperation is needed, which is difficult 2. Expand the balance sheet with high interest rates and force through the debt ceiling resolution, which will extend the life of the bank in the short term, but will be more difficult when the next debt matures. Solve the current problem first and wait for changes. 3. Make up for the loss as needed, expand off-balance sheet funds, and covertly expand the balance sheet through shadow banking. The US will experience recession first and then stagflation Before Trump took office, the US dollar basically maintained an internal depreciation and external appreciation. The Federal Reserve absorbed global capital by maintaining high interest rates. As a profit value depression, it hyped AI to boost the sentiment of US stocks and digest the increase in currency. Although the number of manufacturing goods decreased, the number of high-value services, financial products and other products increased. The export of US dollars through high value-added service products maintained a balance, but this would cause industrial hollowing out. The hegemony of the US dollar is only related to the amount used in trade. As the Russian-Ukrainian war develops, the United States maintains a strong dollar by creating geopolitical crises, international interest rate arbitrage, and data falsification. Once it is weak, it will flow out to emerging markets to form a triple kill of stocks, foreign exchange and bonds. The United States is like a drug addict. It is easy to die suddenly if he quits gambling in the short term. The best solution is to gradually reduce the amount of drugs and start exercising. Trump's manufacturing reflux is also intended to achieve this goal. The negative correlation between the over-issuance of the US dollar and the price of gold and oil is becoming ineffective, and there are fewer and fewer cards in his hand. If Trump wants to ensure economic stability under the interest rate cut, he can only close the door and beat the dog, prevent funds from flowing out of the United States, and eliminate the trade deficit. Therefore, it is useless to lower tariffs like Vietnam, which is rapidly sliding to its knees. Only by buying things in the United States can it work. If the trade deficit disappears, it will be impossible to obtain dollars, and without dollars, it will be impossible to buy U.S. bonds. This is a logical paradox of an endless cycle. As the first to come forward, Japan faced such an unsolvable problem in the first round of negotiations between Japan and the United States, so Ishiba Shigeru would break the jar and even form a China-Japan-South Korea free trade zone. Trump needs to increase domestic prices and depreciate foreign prices, lower inflation but increase exports, but the only competitive product of the United States is high-end chips, and it is difficult to eliminate the trade deficit if they are not exported. In the past, the long-term export of high-priced military products is no longer competitive because the technological advantages of the military industry have disappeared. There is a high probability of recession in 2025, unless Trump makes a 180-degree turn and fully cooperates with China. But the political, military, economic and cultural shifts take time. If there is a recession, we can only beg Powell for help, which is something that Trump's self-esteem does not allow. It is really difficult to make a decision. The hegemony of the US dollar is being deconstructed, and the ideological stamp of risk-free national debt is being abandoned. The development history of Bitcoin needs to be thoroughly re-examined. The 180-degree reversal of Trump's market, which first rose and then fell, is due to changes in expectations. The first rise is a remembrance of the good old days, and the subsequent fall is a pessimism about the present. Because the last interest rate hike cycle was incomplete and had not yet pulled down other economies, and because its own economy could not hold up and to help the Democratic Party's election, the interest rate cut was somewhat sudden. If tariffs trigger inflation, it is not completely impossible to return to the logic of raising interest rates. Now BTC is waiting for the market direction, and the market's collective unconscious collusion has caused a significant decline in trading volume. If we want to know where the crypto will go in the future, we must first look back at history to see why BTC became popular. Without going into too much old stuff, let's go back to the last bull market in 2020. If you want to rise, you need money. To solve the problem of where the money comes from and why it comes to you, the huge amount of liquidity released by the excessive QE during the last epidemic led to the continued rise of US stocks and Bitcoin. This round of market is different from the past. Because of the existence of ETF, Bitcoin broke through 70,000 before the interest rate cut, and directly rushed to 100,000 after confirming the Trump market. It can be compared with the US stock market. In 2024, AI + Nvidia created topics in the US stock market. CoreWeave purchased excess graphics cards to maintain a tight supply and demand scenario, and then used graphics cards as collateral for financing to continue buying. It is similar to the logic of MSTR buying Bitcoin in the crypto, and it is also like the logic of China's real estate rising period. They are all leveraging the left foot and stepping on the right foot to spiral up, and they are all pledge-financing-purchase cycles. From this perspective, financial bubbles will indeed collapse in the end, but what we are betting on is the cycle, and what we are betting on is that we are not the last person to take over. If Trump cannot reach an agreement with China on tariffs as soon as possible, he cannot quickly get Powell. The United States is bound to have inflation in the next two months. Against the backdrop of the depreciation of the US dollar, whether the value-storage and anti-inflation properties of Bitcoin can be enhanced is the key to whether the price of Bitcoin can continue to rise. We have discussed many times that the valuation system depends on what role Bitcoin will play in the US dollar ecosystem, and on the proportion of technology stocks and gold value-storage properties. If the technology content is too high, it will follow the long-term decline of the US stock market. If the proportion of gold-like value-storage logic increases, it will follow the long-term rise of gold. If it offsets, it will go sideways. At present, Trump and Wall Street big capital have differences. Trump wants Bitcoin to assume part of the properties of the US dollar as an international currency after the US strategic contraction, but it is very difficult to achieve. Therefore, the current sideways competition between different capitals betting on the new logic will have a general direction after the change of dealers. However, because the 72,000 position has been tested many times before the interest rate cut last year, even if we regard 72-109 as all caused by Trump's market, the fall back to 72 is also an iron bottom. Coupled with the capital accumulation effect, the previous 74 is likely to be the bottom.