Author: Lawrence
In April 2025, Bitcoin price continued to oscillate within the range of $83,000 to $85,200, failing to break through the key resistance level of $86,000. This price fluctuation is closely related to subtle changes in macroeconomic data.
US unemployment benefits application data.
On April 17, the US Department of Labor reported initial unemployment claims of 215,000, lower than the market expectation of 225,000, indicating the continued resilience of the labor market. This data is viewed as an important signal of US economic stability but also reduces market expectations for Fed rate cuts, thereby suppressing short-term speculative sentiment in risk assets.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized in his speech on April 16 that the recent "reciprocal tariff" policy in the US far exceeded expectations and could lead to dual pressures of rising inflation and economic growth slowdown.
Meanwhile, Trump said at a press conference: "I think he (Powell) is terrible, but I can't complain," and pointed out that the economy was strong during his first term. Trump continued to criticize Powell, saying he believes the Fed chairman is "playing politics" and stated Powell is "someone I never really liked".
Trump then stated: I believe Powell will eventually cut rates, and the only thing Powell is good at is cutting rates.
Despite the Fed's clear statement that it will not intervene in the market or implement rate cuts, the European Central Bank has already proactively reduced interest rates from 2.50% to 2.25%, reaching a new low since the end of 2022, in an attempt to mitigate the economic impact of tariff policies. This divergence in global monetary policies further intensifies market uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess the hedging attributes of assets like BTC.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is at a critical "turning point". Anonymous trader Titan of Crypto noted that BTC price continues to contract within a triangular pattern, with the RSI indicator above 50 and attempting to break through resistance, suggesting an imminent directional breakthrough. Order flow analyst Magus believes that if Bitcoin fails to break through $85,000 quickly, the long-term chart may turn bearish. The battle for this price range not only concerns short-term trends but may also determine whether Bitcoin can continue its bull market pattern since 2024.
Historical Correlation: Bitcoin's Lagged Effect After Gold's New High
On April 17, gold prices surged to a historical high of $3,357 per ounce, triggering widespread market attention to Bitcoin's subsequent trend.
Historical comparison of Bitcoin and gold price trends.
Historical data shows a significant lagged correlation between gold and Bitcoin: whenever gold reaches a new high, Bitcoin typically follows and breaks its previous high within 100-150 days.
For example, after gold rose 30% in 2017, Bitcoin reached its historical peak of $19,120 in December of the same year; after gold broke through $2,075 in 2020, Bitcoin rose to $69,000 in November 2021.
This correlation stems from their complementary roles during economic uncertainty. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, typically first reflects inflation expectations and monetary easing signals; Bitcoin, due to its supply rigidity and decentralized nature, becomes a subsequent force under the "digital gold" narrative.
Correlation between Bitcoin and gold price trends.
Joe Consorti, Growth Head at Theya, points out that Bitcoin's lag in gold trends is related to its market maturity - institutional investors need more time to complete the asset allocation transition from traditional to crypto assets.
Currently, the surge in gold prices resonates with the uncertainty of Fed policies.
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, describes this phase as the "Minsky Moment" of the US economy - the critical point of unsustainable debt and market confidence collapse. He believes the synchronized strength of Bitcoin and gold reflects investor concerns about USD weakness and the $35 trillion national debt, with tariff policies exacerbating global economic order volatility.
Cycle Model and Long-term Forecast: Bitcoin's "Power Law Curve" and $400,000 Target
Despite short-term volatility, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Anonymous analyst apsk32, based on the "Power Law Curve Time Profile" model, predicts that Bitcoin will enter a parabolic growth phase in the second half of 2025, with a potential target price as high as $400,000.
This model normalizes Bitcoin's market cap with gold's market cap and measures Bitcoin's value in gold ounces, revealing its potential valuation logic as "digital gold".
Bitcoin price and computing power curve chart.
Historical cycle patterns also support this prediction. Bitcoin's halving effect (occurring every four years) typically triggers a bull market 12-18 months later, and the April 2024 halving event may demonstrate its power in the third or fourth quarter of 2025.
Meanwhile, institutional investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin through compliant tools like ETFs. As of February 2025, the total net asset value of BTC ETFs has reached $93.6 billion, further consolidating its position as a mainstream asset.
However, the market needs to be cautious of "expectation overdraft" risks. The current bull market is primarily driven by institutional hoarding and ETF funds, with consistently low retail participation and BTC exchange balances dropping to their lowest level since 2018, intensifying liquidity trap risks. If Bitcoin fails to expand more application scenarios (such as payment and smart contracts), its valuation may face correction pressure.
Policy Variables: Tariffs, Liquidity Crisis, and Market Restructuring
In April 2025, US tariffs on Chinese goods soared to 104%, with countries like Japan and Canada also facing high tariff impacts. This policy not only raised global inflation expectations but also reshaped capital flow patterns. Bloomberg data shows that tariffs have caused US prices to rise by about 2.5%, increasing household annual expenditure by nearly $4,000. To address economic pressure, the Fed may be forced to restart quantitative easing, and monetary oversupply will further strengthen Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative.
The tariff policy further highlights the decentralized advantages of Bitcoin. Against the backdrop of traditional cross-border payments being hindered, stablecoins (such as USDT) have become a tool for emerging markets to circumvent capital controls due to their low cost and instant settlement characteristics. For example, the stablecoin premium rates in countries like Argentina and Turkey have long been maintained at 5%-8%, reflecting the urgent demand under legal currency credit crises.
However, the short-term market volatility triggered by tariffs cannot be ignored. On April 9, Bitcoin prices once fell to $80,000, with an intraday drop of 7%, and derivatives market liquidations exceeded $1 billion in a single day. This volatility indicates that Bitcoin has not yet completely shed its "high-risk asset" label, and its price remains heavily influenced by macro sentiment and leverage liquidation.
Conclusion: Asset Allocation Logic in the New Economic Paradigm
The core contradiction in the current market lies in the mismatch between policy expectations and endogenous momentum. Bitcoin's long-term value depends on the dual test of regulatory frameworks and technological bottlenecks.
Investors need to be clear that 2025-2026 may be Bitcoin's "final carnival".
In this changing situation, the complementarity between gold and Bitcoin becomes increasingly apparent. Gold, with its historical consensus and liquidity advantages, remains the ultimate safe-haven choice in crises; while Bitcoin has verified its "Digital Gold 2.0" attributes through "de-correlation", becoming a core allocation in diversified investment portfolios.
For ordinary investors, configuring a portfolio of physical gold and mainstream cryptocurrencies, and paying attention to "oversold opportunities" in emerging market bonds, may be the best strategy to withstand turbulence.
History will not simply repeat itself, but it always rhymes. Whether it's Bitcoin's $85,000 inflection point or gold's new high of $3,357, these numbers are microcosms of global economic order reconstruction. Only by maintaining rationality and foresight can one capture new opportunities in uncertainty.
