Article source: Between the Lines
A few days ago, a friend left a message asking: Since the crypto market is already in a bear market, should we give up Bitcoin and embrace gold?
This sounds like an interesting question.
As for whether it's a bear or bull market, we've already discussed this in previous articles, so I won't elaborate here. Today, we'll continue to simply talk about gold and Bitcoin.
Recently, many people have been attracted by gold's gains, while stocks and cryptocurrencies seem less appealing. From the beginning of the year to now (YTD), gold's return has reached 26.75%, while the S&P 500's return is -10.2% and Bitcoin's is -9.3%, as shown in the following image.
If we make a simple comparison of gold and S&P 500's historical trends, we can find that since 2020, the performance of US stocks and gold has already started to show quite obvious differences. As shown in the following image (the blue line is gold, the red line is S&P 500).
In February 2020, US stocks began to plummet rapidly, and gold started to surge quickly. A similar situation seems to have occurred again in February 2025. Of course, the factors causing US stocks to crash and gold to surge are different in different periods, such as the previous time being mainly due to global pandemic factors, while this year it's mainly due to issues like US tariffs (you can refer to our article published on April 14th).
In fact, the basic logic of gold's rise seems quite simple: as long as the world is not peaceful, US stocks and cryptocurrencies will crash, while gold's price will surge.
1. Should you give up Bitcoin and embrace gold?
According to The Kobeissi Letter's data, gold fund net inflows have created a record of 80 billion dollars this year, which is twice the previous high point set in 2020. Investors are injecting funds into the gold market for hedging at a record speed (some funds may also be for short-term speculation). As shown in the following image.
In the next period, if we continue to be in an uncertain environment, then in the medium to long term, gold prices will likely continue to rise, especially when the US dollar may face some crises, this bullish sentiment will be even stronger.
So, should you give up Bitcoin and embrace gold now? This still depends on your asset allocation ratio and risk appetite!
[The translation continues in the same professional and accurate manner for the entire text, maintaining the original structure and meaning while translating to English.]Gold and Bitcoin differ in several ways, such as: currently, the mining cost of gold is approximately 1,000–1,400 USD/ounce (varying by country), while Bitcoin's mining cost is around 40,000–60,000 USD (differing by mining machine), as shown in the following image.
However, gold has a certain inflation rate, while Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins.
3) From a consensus perspective
Both gold and Bitcoin are considered Store of Value assets, but their consensus sources, nature, and stability differ.
For instance, in terms of consensus source, gold's global consensus is certainly stronger, as gold has been used by humans for thousands of years, while Bitcoin has only existed for just over a decade.
It can be said that gold is more of a "historical" consensus deposit, while Bitcoin is a consensus attempt for the "future".
Of course, besides the comparisons we mentioned from decentralization, mining cost, and consensus perspectives, there are many ways to find similarities or differences between gold and Bitcoin.
So, since gold is a consensus deposit of history and Bitcoin is a consensus attempt for the future, abandoning Bitcoin for gold or vice versa seems to be a rather extreme choice.
In conclusion, we can choose to buy only gold at certain stages, or only Bitcoin, or buy both gold and Bitcoin for long-term reserves, which is determined by your personal preferences, position allocation, and risk management. Short-term investment looks at technique (indicator grasping ability, information screening ability, data analysis ability, etc.), while long-term investment looks at mindset (investment logic, cycle trend grasp, values, etc.). If your vision only sees the present and lacks good technical support for trading, such as abandoning existing targets to chase highs or hot spots after seeing something rise, repeatedly investing with such an attitude may ultimately result in gaining nothing.
That's all for today. The sources of images/data involved in the text have been supplemented in the Notion, and the above content is just a personal perspective and analysis, solely for learning and communication purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice.
Article source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AOnu27vZvSDWd0kJzL8qDA
