Trading time: European and American stock markets are closed today, and gold hits a new high, triggering speculation that Bitcoin will follow suit

1. Market Observation

Keywords: sUSD, ETH, BTC

Due to Good Friday and Easter holidays, US, Hong Kong, European, and Australian stock markets are closed today, with Hong Kong, European, and Australian markets continuing to be closed until next Monday. Meanwhile, gold prices surged to a historical high of $3,357 per ounce yesterday, sparking speculation about whether Bitcoin would follow suit. Historically, whenever gold rises, Bitcoin tends to break its all-time high months later. Joe Consorti, growth lead at Theya, noted that Bitcoin typically lags 100-150 days behind gold's trend, expecting Bitcoin to potentially reach a new all-time high in Q3 to Q4. However, JPMorgan's latest report suggests that amid Trump's global trade war, investors are more inclined to invest in gold rather than Bitcoin.

Notably, according to Santiment, transaction costs on the Ethereum network have dropped to a five-year low, currently around $0.168 per transaction. Santiment's Marketing Director Brian Quinlivan explained that as fees decrease, the number of people sending ETH and interacting with smart contracts has also reduced, essentially a supply and demand system. When network activity decreases, users don't need to bid high fees to expedite transaction confirmation, thus lowering average fees. From a trading perspective, low fees might hinder price rebounds, but traders seem patiently waiting for global economic uncertainty to pass before increasing the frequency of Ethereum and Altcoin trading. Additionally, crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated that the TD Sequential indicator has issued a buy signal on Bitcoin's weekly chart. If Bitcoin's price continues to close above $86,000, it could potentially drive prices further to $90,000 or even $95,000.

On the regulatory front, Slovenia plans to impose a 25% tax on personal cryptocurrency profits starting January 1, 2026, with the proposal currently awaiting public feedback and parliamentary approval. The new rules will apply to profits from exchanging cryptocurrencies to fiat or purchasing goods and services, while cryptocurrency-to-cryptocurrency exchanges will remain tax-free. Meanwhile, Panama City Mayor Mayer Mizrachi Matalon announced that the city government has approved using Bitcoin, Ethereum, USDC, and USDT to pay taxes, fees, fines, and licenses, converting cryptocurrencies to USD through partner banks. Powell himself stated at the Chicago Economic Club that future banking rules related to cryptocurrencies might be "relaxed", despite a wave of failures and fraud in the crypto space, which is becoming increasingly mainstream.

Macroeconomically, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is considering firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but former Fed Governor Walsh and Treasury Secretary Bessent both oppose this move. Morgan Stanley's US Chief Economist Michael Gapen noted that the monthly non-farm employment report is a reliable indicator of economic health, particularly the pace of new job additions and whether wage growth can sustainably outpace inflation. Although Trump administration's tariff and immigration policies might drag down the economy this year, Gapen believes economic growth will continue, just at a slower pace. Notably, Trump suggested on Thursday that tariffs between the US and China might be ending soon, hinting at potential tariff reductions, which boosted international oil and copper prices and led to widespread gains in Asian-Pacific stock markets.

2. Key Data (as of April 18, 12:00 HKT)