Recently, the cryptocurrency market's volatility has mainly followed international financial changes, with Bitcoin under pressure when US stocks decline. In stark contrast, international gold prices have been continuously rising, breaking through $3,350 per ounce and setting new historical highs, practically demonstrating gold's hedging properties.
Correlation between Gold and Bitcoin
Although Bitcoin has not yet fully demonstrated its value as "digital gold", according to Cointelegraph's statistical charts, historical market information shows a close connection between Bitcoin and gold prices.
In 2017, when gold prices rose by 30%, Bitcoin's price quickly climbed to $19,120 within a few months. A similar situation occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when gold prices rose to around $2,075, and Bitcoin subsequently soared to a new record of $69,000 the following year.
Theya CFO JOE Consorti specifically pointed out that the relationship between Bitcoin and gold trends usually has a 100-150 day delay, stating:
"When the money printer starts, gold is always the first to sense the direction, with Bitcoin following closely and showing an even more pronounced effect."
If Consorti's analytical logic is accurate, Bitcoin might achieve a new price record between the third and fourth quarters of 2025.
Global Economic Situation Driving Bitcoin and Gold Trends
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz also stated in a recent CNBC interview that Bitcoin and gold have become important indicators during global macroeconomic instability. He noted that the current environment is in a "Minsky Moment" for the US economy, with market volatility often being a catalyst for Bitcoin trading activity, as investors seek safer or inflation-resistant investment options beyond the US dollar.
Novogratz specifically highlighted unfavorable economic factors in the US, such as the uncertainty brought by Trump's policies, trade tariff disruptions, and the continuously rising interest rate environment. He warned that these conditions suggest the US economic status is more like an emerging market country, with US national debt shockingly rising to $35 trillion and an unsustainable economic deficit, which is driving up market demand for assets like gold and Bitcoin...
Short-term Market Reaction and Key Observations
While Bitcoin's price has recently remained around $85,000 with narrow fluctuations, social sentiment seems to be gradually turning optimistic. Santiment, a company specializing in market sentiment analysis, indicates that Bitcoin's network sentiment has recently turned notably bullish, which might indirectly suggest the market is about to launch a new upward trend.
However, whether Bitcoin's price can reach new highs in the coming months as the market expects remains to be seen and depends on the subsequent development of Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Investors need to be cautious, closely monitor market dynamics, and make the best judgment.
