Chapter 1: Global Crypto Market Landscape in the Post-Bull Market Era
Since the first half of 2025, the crypto market has entered the "post-bull market" phase, characterized by high-level oscillation and structural differentiation. Although BTC successfully reached a new high under the halving cycle, it subsequently entered a correction channel. Compounded by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy not turning as expected towards easing and escalating US-China trade tensions, the crypto market is once again shrouded in macroeconomic uncertainty.
The market during this period is not a traditional bear market, nor does it continue the massive growth of the bull market, but is in a transition zone after the cycle's peak. Risk appetite has declined, and fund activity has weakened, but a systemic liquidity crisis similar to 2022 has not occurred. Core assets like BTC and ETH still have institutional allocation demand. While on-chain activity has slightly declined, it has not significantly deteriorated. Meanwhile, some new narrative sectors such as AI chains, reStaking, and meme coin ecosystems continue to attract speculative capital, presenting a "weak market with strong themes" situation.
From a macro perspective, in the first half of 2025, the global economy presents a complex state of "unsteady disinflation and growth pressure". The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance in a high-interest-rate environment, with market opinions divided on whether rate cuts will be initiated this year. The uncertainty of the interest rate path continues to suppress the upward space of risk assets. A new round of trade friction between the US and China surrounding new energy, high-tech, and digital infrastructure has become a new variable. While crypto assets are not directly involved, geopolitical risks have increased market volatility and caused additional interference to investor sentiment.
However, it is worth noting that the globalization degree and interference resistance of the crypto industry have significantly enhanced compared to the past. Multiple jurisdictions such as Hong Kong, Japan, and the UAE successively released supportive policies in 2024, promoting crypto ETF launches, stablecoin regulation, and accelerating Web3 sandbox operations, providing traditional funds with a more clear compliant participation path. This international support partially offset the negative impact of US regulatory tightening and made the overall market ecology present a "locally sluggish, globally balanced" pattern.
Overall, the "post-bull market" is not the end of the bull market, but entering a new stage - the market focuses more on value judgment, users prioritize practical scenarios, and funds trend towards long-termism. In the short term, macro variables will continue to dominate market expectation fluctuations. However, in the medium and long term, the market is in a critical period of transitioning to the next technology-application resonance cycle. Only by finding sectors and targets with definitive growth in the diverse global landscape can the core logic of the "post-bull market era" be discovered.
3.2. Continuous Innovation and Expansion of Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
Although Decentralized Finance (DeFi) has experienced complex market adjustments over the past two years, with continuous technological maturity and expansion of application scenarios, the DeFi ecosystem is expected to usher in a new breakthrough in the second half of 2025. With the continuous advancement of Layer 2 solutions, cross-chain interoperability, and privacy protection technologies, DeFi has achieved significant improvements in scalability, cost-effectiveness, and security, attracting more institutional participants.
Especially in decentralized lending, derivatives trading, and synthetic assets, the DeFi market is gradually penetrating the "gray areas" of traditional financial markets. For example, through innovative DeFi protocols, institutional funds can hedge using on-chain derivatives, and investors can participate in the market in a more flexible and low-cost manner. This development potential will help drive a structural rebound in the crypto market in the second half of the year.
3.3. Continued Entry of Institutional Investors
In the maturation process of the crypto market, the entry of institutional investors is undoubtedly one of the most critical factors. From Bitcoin ETF to ETH futures, and the gradual increase in crypto asset holdings by more institutional funds, the inflow of institutions has brought more funds and robust risk management mechanisms to the market. With further clarification of regulatory frameworks and gradual opening of capital markets, more traditional financial institutions will participate in crypto asset investment and custody.
Additionally, some large enterprises (such as payment giants, internet platforms, investment banks, etc.) are gradually recognizing the strategic significance of crypto assets in diversified asset allocation. This not only means that the crypto market's funding pool is continuously expanding but also signals that the crypto market is gradually moving towards mainstream traditional financial markets. In the second half of the year, with more institutional recognition and investment in crypto assets, the market's rebound momentum will be further enhanced.
(The translation continues in the same manner for the rest of the text, maintaining the specified translations for technical terms and maintaining a professional, accurate translation style.)Policy Clarity: Currently, there is still uncertainty in global regulatory policies for the crypto market. While some countries have begun to provide clear regulatory frameworks, others remain in a wait-and-see state. Further clarification of regulatory policies, especially policy guidance for innovative areas like stablecoins, DeFi, and Non-Fungible Tokens, will have a profound impact on the market. If major economic regions such as the United States, Europe, and Asia introduce more friendly policies and provide positive guidance for crypto assets, market sentiment and capital inflows will significantly improve.
Market Sentiment Improvement: In the second half of 2025, the recovery of crypto market sentiment will be a crucial premise for market rebound. Compared to 2024, market sentiment has gradually shifted from pessimistic to neutral, and investors' acceptance of crypto assets has been gradually increasing. With the improvement of the macroeconomic environment and the entry of more investors, market sentiment is expected to further improve, thereby triggering capital inflows. This process may be gradually achieved with the support of technological innovation and policies, ultimately driving market price increases.
Large Capital Driving: The involvement of large capital, especially institutional investors, will be another key factor in the crypto market rebound. In the second half of 2025, with the participation of more financial institutions and large capital, market liquidity and flow scale will significantly increase. Especially with the flourishing development of derivatives markets such as ETFs and futures, market volatility may decrease, and capital inflow and market stability will be further enhanced.
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Maturity: As an important component of the crypto market, DeFi may usher in further development in the second half of 2025. Improvements in DeFi protocol security, liquidity, and user experience will attract more investors and developers. The expansion of DeFi platforms and decentralized financial services will bring new momentum to the entire crypto market, especially in cross-chain transactions and DeFi derivatives innovation.
5.3. Strategic Recommendations
Facing the potential rebound of the crypto market in the second half of 2025, investors should develop investment strategies based on market potential and risks. Here are several feasible strategy recommendations:
Adhere to Long-Term Investment in Mainstream Assets: Although the market contains numerous emerging chains and assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the "mainstay" of the crypto market. Bitcoin, as digital gold, will not easily shake its status as a safe-haven asset. Ethereum continues to dominate smart contract and decentralized application (DApp) development. For long-term investors, holding Bitcoin and Ethereum remains a stable strategy, especially when market sentiment improves, the return potential of mainstream assets remains considerable.
Focus on Innovative Chains and Emerging Assets: For investors with higher risk appetite, consider investing in public chains and assets with technological innovation and high growth potential. For example, Solana, Avalanche, and Polkadot are attracting increasing attention from developers and investors. These chains offer different technical solutions from Ethereum, with higher transaction efficiency and lower transaction costs, so their market performance may exceed expectations, especially in applications in DeFi and Non-Fungible Token areas.
Strengthen Stablecoin and DeFi Asset Allocation: Stablecoins and DeFi assets, as important components of the crypto market, also provide new investment opportunities. The application scenarios of stablecoins will further expand, becoming an important medium for cross-chain transactions and decentralized finance. DeFi protocols and assets may become new market growth points; investors can consider allocating some high-quality DeFi tokens to share the growth dividends of the DeFi ecosystem.
Pay Attention to Policy Dynamics and Regulatory Risks: Investors should always monitor global crypto market policy changes, especially regulatory policies for stablecoins, DeFi, and Non-Fungible Tokens. Policy support and constraints will directly affect market capital inflows and development direction. Actively following regulatory progress and quickly adjusting investment strategies after policy clarity will help avoid policy risks and seize potential investment opportunities.
In summary, the potential for a crypto market rebound in the second half of 2025 remains significant, but whether a new market trend will emerge depends on the intertwined influence of multiple factors. From macroeconomic recovery, technological progress, and capital liquidity to policy clarity, all factors are providing momentum for crypto market recovery. In this context, investors should flexibly adjust strategies and continuously pay attention to market changes and potential opportunities.
