In April 2025, Bitcoin's price continued to oscillate within the range of $83,000 to $85,200, failing to break through the key resistance level of $86,000. This price fluctuation is closely related to subtle changes in macroeconomic data.
U.S. unemployment benefits application data.
On April 17, the U.S. Department of Labor reported initial unemployment claims at 215,000, lower than the market expectation of 225,000, indicating the continued resilience of the labor market. This data is viewed as an important signal of U.S. economic stability, but it also lowered market expectations for Fed rate cuts, thereby suppressing short-term speculative sentiment in risk assets.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized in his speech on April 16 that the recent "reciprocal tariffs" policy in the United States far exceeded expectations and could lead to the dual pressure of rising inflation and slowing economic growth.
Meanwhile, Trump said at a press conference: "I think he (Powell) is terrible, but I can't complain," and pointed out that the economy was strong during his first term. Trump continued to criticize Powell, saying he believed the Fed chairman was "playing politics" and stated that Powell was "someone I never really liked".
Trump then said: I think Powell will eventually cut rates, and the only thing Powell is good at is cutting rates.
Although the Federal Reserve clearly stated that it would not intervene in the market or implement rate cuts, the European Central Bank has already lowered its interest rate from 2.50% to 2.25%, reaching a new low since the end of 2022, in an attempt to mitigate the economic impact of tariff policies. This divergence in global monetary policies further intensifies market uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess the hedging attributes of assets like BTC.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is at a critical "turning point". Anonymous trader Titan of Crypto noted that BTC price continues to contract within a triangular pattern, with the RSI indicator above 50 and attempting to break through resistance, suggesting an imminent directional breakthrough. Order flow analyst Magus believes that if Bitcoin fails to break through $85,000 quickly, the long-term chart may turn bearish. The struggle in this price range not only concerns short-term trends but may also determine whether Bitcoin can continue its bull market pattern since 2024.
Historical Correlation: Bitcoin's Lagged Effect After Gold's New High
On April 17, gold prices soared to a historical high of $3,357 per ounce, triggering widespread market attention to Bitcoin's subsequent trend.
Historical trend comparison between Bitcoin and gold.
Historical data shows a significant lagged correlation between gold and Bitcoin: whenever gold reaches a new high, Bitcoin typically follows and breaks its previous high within 100-150 days.
For example, after gold rose 30% in 2017, Bitcoin reached its historical peak of $19,120 in December of the same year; after gold broke through $2,075 in 2020, Bitcoin rose to $69,000 in November 2021.
This correlation stems from their complementary roles during economic uncertainty. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, usually first reflects inflation expectations and monetary easing signals; Bitcoin, due to its supply rigidity and decentralized nature, becomes a lagging force under the "digital gold" narrative.
Correlation between Bitcoin and gold price trends.
Joe Consorti, Growth Head at Theya, pointed out that Bitcoin's lag in gold trends is related to its market maturity - institutional investors need more time to complete the asset allocation transition from traditional to crypto assets.
Currently, the surge in gold prices resonates with the uncertainty of Fed policies.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz called this phase the "Minsky moment" of the U.S. economy, the critical point of unsustainable debt and market confidence collapse. He believes that the synchronized strength of Bitcoin and gold reflects investors' concerns about the weakening dollar and $35 trillion national debt, with tariff policies exacerbating global economic order volatility.
Cycle Model and Long-term Forecast: Bitcoin's "Power Law Curve" and $400,000 Target
Despite short-term volatility, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Anonymous analyst apsk32, based on the "power law curve time profile" model, predicts that Bitcoin will enter a parabolic growth phase in the second half of 2025, with a potential target price as high as $400,000.
This model normalizes Bitcoin's market cap with gold's market cap and measures Bitcoin's value in gold ounces, revealing its potential valuation logic as "digital gold".
Bitcoin price and computing power curve chart.
Historical cycle patterns also support this prediction. Bitcoin's halving effect (occurring every four years) typically triggers a bull market in the 12-18 months following, and the April 2024 halving event may demonstrate its power in the third or fourth quarter of 2025.
Meanwhile, institutional investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin through compliant tools like ETFs. As of February 2025, the total net asset value of BTC ETFs has reached $93.6 billion, further consolidating its position as a mainstream asset.
However, the market needs to be wary of "expectation overdraft" risks. The current bull market is primarily driven by institutional hoarding and ETF funds, with consistently low retail participation and BTC exchange balances dropping to their lowest level since 2018, intensifying liquidity trap risks. If Bitcoin fails to expand more application scenarios (such as payment and smart contracts), its valuation may face correction pressure.
Policy Variables: Tariffs, Liquidity Crisis, and Market Restructuring
In April 2025, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods soared to 104%, with countries like Japan and Canada also facing high tariff impacts. This policy not only raised global inflation expectations but also reshaped capital flow patterns. Bloomberg data shows that tariffs caused U.S. prices to rise by about 2.5%, increasing household annual expenditure by nearly $4,000. To address economic pressure, the Fed may be forced to restart quantitative easing, and monetary oversupply will further strengthen Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative.
Tariff policies also highlight Bitcoin's decentralized advantages. With traditional cross-border payments obstructed, stablecoins like USDT have become tools for emerging markets to circumvent capital controls due to their low-cost and instant settlement characteristics. For example, countries like Argentina and Turkey have maintained stablecoin premiums of 5%-8% for extended periods, reflecting urgent needs during fiat credit crises.
However, short-term market volatility caused by tariffs cannot be ignored. On April 9, Bitcoin's price briefly dropped to $80,000, with a daily decline of 7%, and derivatives market liquidations exceeded $1 billion in a single day. This volatility indicates that Bitcoin has not completely shed its "high-risk asset" label, and its price remains heavily influenced by macro sentiment and leverage clearing.
Conclusion: Asset Allocation Logic in a New Economic Paradigm
The core contradiction in the current market lies in the mismatch between policy expectation overdraft and endogenous momentum. Bitcoin's long-term value depends on the dual test of regulatory frameworks and technological bottlenecks.
Investors need to be clear that 2025-2026 may be the "last carnival" for Bitcoin.
In this changing situation, the complementarity of gold and Bitcoin is becoming increasingly significant. Gold, with its historical consensus and liquidity advantages, remains the ultimate safe-haven choice in times of crisis; while Bitcoin has verified its "Digital Gold 2.0" attribute through "de-correlation", becoming the core target of a diversified investment portfolio.
For ordinary investors, configuring a portfolio of physical gold and mainstream cryptocurrencies, and paying attention to the "oversold opportunities" in emerging market bonds, may be the best strategy to withstand volatility.
History will not simply repeat itself, but it always rhymes. Whether it's Bitcoin's turning point at $85,000 or gold's new high of $3,357, these numbers are all microcosms of the global economic order reconstruction. Only by maintaining rationality and foresight can one capture new opportunities in uncertainty.
