I. Regulatory Dividends: Global Policy Shift and Geopolitical Game
1. The Rise of the U.S. "Crypto Utopia"
- Policy Relaxation: The Trump administration promoted a Bitcoin strategic reserve plan, abolished SAB 121 clause restricting bank custody of crypto assets, and the new SEC chairman Paul Atkins proposed "guided regulation" to clarify token security attributes and explore compliance paths.
- Institutional Entry: Bitcoin ETF managed assets exceeded 1.1 million BTC (BlackRock IBIT accounting for 45%), traditional financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan accelerated deployment, and CME launched Solana futures contracts to consolidate pricing power.
- Underlying Risks: U.S. national debt exceeded $36 trillion, facing potential credit rating downgrade; a potential U.S. debt crisis triggering liquidity tightening might cause a synchronized crypto market crash.
2. China's Defensive Strategy in Emerging Markets
- Financial Security Threat: Former PBOC vice governor Chen Yulu pointed out that the global expansion of U.S. dollar stablecoins and BTC squeezes the internationalization space of RMB, and DeFi regulatory arbitrage weakens domestic technological competitiveness.
- Technology Standard Competition: The U.S. dominates in ZKP and Layer2 domains, the EU passed the MiCA framework for regulatory integration, and China faces pressure of blockchain companies migrating, needing to be wary of losing standard-setting rights.
3. Regulatory Arbitrage and Global Coordination
- G20 Framework Game: Countries accelerate digital asset rule formulation, with the U.S. attempting to incorporate cryptocurrencies into its financial hegemony system, while China counters U.S. dollar dominance through digital RMB.
II. Technological Revolution: Layer Wars, AI Integration, and DePIN Rise
1. Ethereum Renaissance and Layer2 Competition
- Pectra Upgrade: Ethereum optimizes account abstraction, L2 compatibility, and staking mechanism, aiming to reduce gas fees and enhance security, with staking rate expected to exceed 50% and TVL potentially reaching $300 billion.
- Public Chain Landscape Divergence: Base chain (Coinback ecosystem) TVL broke $40 billion, Solana achieved 100,000 TPS through Firedancer client, Sui and HyperLiquid seized niche markets with modular architecture.
2. AI + Blockchain: From Tool to Autonomous Participant
- On-chain AI Agents: NEAR co-founder predicts AI Agents will manage crypto wallets, execute trading strategies, and potentially become social platform KOLs by 2025, with VanEck data showing their number will exceed 1 million.
- Technical Integration Bottleneck: High AI model training costs, algorithmic transparency disputes, and regulatory scrutiny may limit large-scale applications.
3. DePIN: Decentralized Infrastructure Industrial Revolution
- Breakthrough Cases: Hivemapper mapped 30% of global roads through 150,000 contributors, with annual revenue exceeding $500 million; Filecoin Foundation promotes AI and DePIN integration to solve data storage and computing power bottlenecks.
III. Trillion-Dollar Fund Game: Institutional, Retail, and Stablecoin Rivalry
1. Institutional-Led "De-Retailization" Trend
- Bitcoin ETF Absorption Effect: BlackRock IBIT management scale exceeded $40 billion, with pension funds and sovereign wealth funds entering, promoting Bitcoin's "safe-haven asset" narrative, though 80% holdings still controlled by retail investors.
- RWA Tokenization Explosion: Ondo Finance U.S. debt tokenization reached $2.8 billion with 4.44% annual yield; Maple Finance issued $2.46 billion in loans, attracting Grayscale and Pantera investments.
2. Stablecoins: Payment Revolution and U.S. Dollar Hegemony Tool
- Market Scale Leap: Stablecoin market value reached $193 billion, potentially breaking $3 trillion in five years, reducing cross-border payment costs by 60%, but Tether reserve transparency controversy remains a potential black swan.
- Geopolitical Weaponization: The U.S. consolidates global reserve status through dollar stablecoins, freezing Russian crypto assets during Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlighting digital financial hegemony threat.
- Regulatory Crackdown Warning: U.S. Congress discusses legislation to limit "political figure token issuance", which might trigger sector-wide collapse if passed.
IV. Future Path: Reshaping Industry Value Between Frenzy and Rationality
1. Investor Strategy: Balance of Defense and Offense
- Core Allocation: BTC (40%) + ETH (20%) + RWA Leaders (like ONDO, 20%), with long-term targets of $180,000 for BTC and $8,000 for ETH.
- Risk Hedging: Retain 30% stablecoins (USDC/DAI), purchase BTC put options (strike price $75,000).
2. Industry Survival Rules
- Escaping Policy Dependence: Trump's promise fulfillment rate is only 31%, needing to shift from "regulatory arbitrage" to intrinsic technological value, such as DeFi protocols accessing traditional financial infrastructure.
- Technology Innovation Priority: Ethereum Layer2, AI agents, and DePIN implementation capabilities will determine long-term competitiveness, avoiding homogeneous public chain bubbles.
3. Global Landscape Prediction
- U.S.-China Confrontation Escalation: U.S. crypto hegemony squeezes China's digital financial space, while China counters through digital RMB and blockchain technology autonomy.
- Technology Standard Competition: Underlying technologies like ZKP and Layer2 become strategic high ground, with EU's MiCA framework potentially creating new barriers.
