Trading time: BTC loses independence, analysts recommend cautious trading and strict stop loss

1. Market Observation

Keywords: OM, ETH, BTC

The Solana chain's market is gradually warming up, with Meme coin trading volume returning to early February levels. Institutional investors are also starting to increase their SOL layout. The US-listed company Janover announced the purchase of 80,567 SOL worth approximately $10.5 million, with their total SOL holdings now reaching 163,000, valued at around $21.2 million. Meanwhile, there are indications that Multicoin Capital's partners are quietly increasing their holdings, having transferred $7 million USDC to Coinbase, possibly preparing for SOL's future market.

Bitcoin's recent performance has left many industry veterans feeling confused and disappointed. Arca's Chief Investment Officer Jeff Dorman candidly admitted that he initially left Wall Street for the crypto field to escape a market environment completely dominated by macro factors. However, Bitcoin has now become a post-market trading tool for large funds, almost synchronized with the Nasdaq's trend, losing its independence. During recent periods of stock market volatility, Bitcoin's high correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is particularly evident. Crypto analyst Eugene also acknowledged that as the crypto market becomes increasingly influenced by macro factors, his trading strategy has had to become more cautious, maintaining low trading volumes and setting strict stop losses until the market direction becomes clear again. However, Arete Capital's McKenna pointed out that markets often bottom out during the worst news, and the panic sentiment when Bitcoin dropped to $74,000 has already been priced in. Unless US-China relations further deteriorate, future news may only cause market fluctuations rather than trend changes. Despite short-term volatility, institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow steadily. Bitwise's data shows that listed companies purchased 95,000 bitcoins in the first quarter of 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16%, with 79 holding companies representing 3.28% of Bitcoin's total supply. Besides Janover, companies like CleanSpark, Value Creation, Metaplanet, and Semler Scientific have also announced Bitcoin investment plans.

Although institutions continue to accumulate BTC, central banks' attitude towards BTC remains unclear. The latest survey from the Bank for International Settlements is not optimistic, with the proportion of central banks considering digital asset investments in the next 5-10 years dropping significantly from 15.9% last year to 2.1% this year. Among 91 central banks managing $7 trillion in reserves, none currently hold digital assets. However, 11.6% of central banks still believe cryptocurrencies are becoming a more credible investment option, with 50 (59.5%) central banks opposing the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Additionally, Google announced the implementation of MiCA crypto advertising rules in the EU region from April 23rd, indicating that large tech companies are adapting to the new regulatory environment.

In the macroeconomic environment, although recent Trump administration tariff policies have caused market volatility, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood remains optimistic. She believes this might be a "shock therapy" ultimately aimed at reducing trade barriers and stimulating economic growth. Wood anticipates potential negative GDP growth in the first half of 2025, which could provide the government and Federal Reserve with more space to stimulate the economy.