Crypto Market Secondary Fund Metrics Ventures April Market Observation Guide:
1/ The past week is memorable even in the entire history of dollar assets. From the perspective of dollar asset prices, this is most likely just a disturbance to the key support test of bull and bear markets. However, in the process of the rise of the East and the decline of the West, the entire process of this tariff will become a major turning point.
2/ We mentioned last month that MSTR and BTC adjustments were very benign, and the low volatility characteristics of the new Bitcoin cycle are undoubtedly emerging. Therefore, we still remain optimistic about MSTR and BTC's performance this year. The key support level of 75,000 saw massive demand, accompanied by numerous bottom divergence signals, resonating with the dollar asset's bottom rebound, which will form a market trend of at least weekly level.
3/ Political affairs have never been within the scope of our public monthly reports, although this is an important part of our trading framework's "bold assumptions". However, standing at this epic weekly weekend, I believe that being overly pessimistic about potential further dollar disturbances in recent months is unnecessary. From a price perspective, the market has most likely passed the ultimate test.
Market Overall Situation and Trend Review:
From a purely market perspective, in technical analysis, we only want to further emphasize that in this recently experienced market with strong divergence, dollar risk assets have released massive volume at relatively sufficient adjustment positions/bear market critical support levels. In the case of batch breakthroughs of the seven sisters, MSTR and BTC trends show obvious strong feedback. At the same time, we noticed the following divergence phenomena:
①Obvious divergence between Bitcoin price and contract positions (Coinglass data):
②Bitcoin's own MACD and RSI divergence:
Therefore, we generally believe that the ultimate test position is the recent low point.
After experiencing the previous market climax, MSTR can still stably rank among the top ten daily trading volumes in US stocks. We believe this also follows the capital disk establishment hypothesis we mentioned in the special report in October 24. In the future, it is expected to continuously draw liquidity from US stocks to replenish Bitcoin, along with newly added BTC capital disk assets like GME, a pattern similar to the Eastern real estate stock play that began 20 years ago.
RMB assets have also experienced a visibly predictable ultimate test, which has allowed more people to understand the facts of East's rise and West's decline that we have been discussing since the end of 24, such as military, manufacturing, technology, and population structure. At this moment, the Shanghai Composite Index is still consolidating above the second gap, and with subsequent monetary policies of synchronized easing in the East and West, more investors are expected to discover the many trends in Eastern economy in recent years, such as consumer brand upgrades and chip breakthroughs. Although the tariff event can be seen as an impact on asset prices, it will become a clear accelerating event in the long-term trend of East's rise and West's decline in the years to come.
Finally, on the eve of market sentiment gradually calming and VIX gradually falling, we want to say that at this moment, concerns about monetary stability, sovereign stability, financial stability, and asset security are precisely the scenarios preset when Bitcoin was born nearly 20 years ago. The once-held vision will not shift due to the transfer of pricing rights, but whether the original intention remains will truly be revealed between 2025-2026.
At this moment, it is just like that moment back then.
