4 US Economic Indicators to Watch Before Crypto Markets Move on Good Friday

As Good Friday approaches, cryptocurrency investors are focusing on four important U.S. economic indicators to be released this week, each with the potential to impact digital asset prices.

From consumer inflation expectations to initial jobless claims, here's how these economic data could affect Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency prices this week.

Consumer Inflation Expectations

On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's March Inflation Expectations survey will reveal how Americans predict price changes in the coming year.

Recent data shows expectations rising to 3.1% in February from 3% in January, indicating growing inflation concerns. The consensus forecast among economists is another increase to 3.3%.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's consumer survey shows inflation expectations soaring to levels unseen since 1981.

"Consumer pessimism about future inflation has reached a new high since 1981, with expectations rising to 6.7% in April from 4.9% the previous month. Just three months ago, consumers predicted 3.3% inflation for the coming year," a user commented.

This, along with market anxiety after the U.S. Treasury yield increase on Friday, adds complexity for the Fed. The minutes from the Fed's March meeting showed most officials believe inflation may be more persistent, with Trump's tariffs potentially driving prices up.

This explains the Fed's commitment to patience and continued assessment of economic data before adjusting policy.

For cryptocurrencies, increasing inflation concerns typically boost interest in Bitcoin as a hedge due to its fixed supply. However, if expectations rise too high, concerns about Fed tightening could pressure risky assets like cryptocurrencies.

If volatility increases, stablecoins like USDT might see increased trading volume as investors seek refuge. Conversely, if the index is lower than expected, it could boost altcoins and encourage risk-taking sentiment.

U.S. Retail Sales

The U.S. Retail Sales report for March on Wednesday, measuring consumer spending compared to the same period last year, is a crucial indicator of economic health. February data showed a modest increase of 1.9% to 3.1%, but tariffs and trade tensions could reduce March figures.

"Pay attention to the latest inflation data and retail sales figures to be released mid-week. They could shape the Fed's next move," investor George noted.

Strong retail sales typically signal consumer confidence, boosting stocks and potentially pushing cryptocurrency prices down as investors favor traditional markets. However, weak sales could reinforce recession fears, driving capital towards decentralized assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), or Solana (SOL).

Cryptocurrency correlation with consumer sentiment has increased, with Bitcoin often reacting to spending trends. Therefore, it's preparing for potential volatility this week.

Industrial Production

The Federal Reserve's Industrial Production report for March, also released on Wednesday, tracks monthly changes in manufacturing, mining, and utility output.

The 0.7% decline in February raised economic recession concerns, and a further projected 0.2% decrease could signal trouble.

For cryptocurrencies, weak industrial production typically reinforces the decentralization narrative, increasing interest in blockchain projects. However, continuous decline could cause broader market panic, most severely affecting speculative tokens.

Strong production data could stabilize markets, reducing cryptocurrency appeal as a safe haven but supporting DeFi platforms related to real assets. Bitcoin Miners, dependent on energy costs, might face pressure if utility output decreases.

"In a capital-intensive industry like Bitcoin mining, policy stability is crucial—and right now, that's lacking," Jaran Mellerud, CEO of Hashlabs Mining, said recently.

Traders should monitor futures market leverage, as surprising data could trigger liquidation, especially in small-cap coins.

Initial Jobless Claims

Thursday's Initial Unemployment Claims report, reflecting new unemployment benefit applications, provides an overview of labor market health.

Last week's claims increased to 223,000 from 219,000, suggesting a slight weakening. A sudden spike in claims could heighten recession fears, driving funds into Bitcoin as a value store. However, altcoins might suffer from risk aversion.

With Good Friday approaching, liquidity might decrease, intensifying price volatility. Trading volume during holidays is typically low, making prices more susceptible to strong reactions.

Data from BeInCrypto shows Bitcoin is trading at $84,962 at the time of writing, slightly increasing by 0.35% in the past 24 hours.