This week, BTC opened at $78,370.15 and closed at $84,733.07, rising 6.84% for the week with a volatility of 14.89%, and trading volume continued to expand significantly. Since late January, BTC price has effectively broken through the upper limit of the downward channel for the first time, approaching the 200-day moving average.
Trump's "reciprocal tariff war" remained the largest variable in global macroeconomic finance this week. Its dramatic performance left the world stunned, with China's countermeasures striking back forcefully.
In the "game of chicken," the party that blinks first is likely to lose. The global tariff war against the world triggered both explicit and implicit reactions from global forces, including but not limited to political, business, and capital levels.
Ultimately, this led to capital fleeing the U.S. market, resulting in a rare "stocks, bonds, and exchange" triple kill in the United States.
Facing a massive financial crisis, the Trump administration chose to compromise, either partially postponing the implementation of reciprocal tariffs or reducing intensity by supplementing exemption lists, and releasing goodwill towards China in terms of public opinion. From this point, the "reciprocal tariff war" gradually entered its second phase, with multiple parties set to negotiate and compromise.
The risk equity market, which had previously plummeted due to the first phase, now welcomes a significant rebound. Perhaps, the most terrible phase of the "reciprocal tariff war" has passed, but subsequent chaos will continue to dominate various markets. The tariff crisis will neither easily pass nor avoid triggering new crises. Key observation points include whether subsequent "reciprocal tariffs" will escalate, whether the Federal Reserve will "timely" cut rates, and whether the U.S. economy will fall into recession.
Policies, Macroeconomic Finance, and Economic Data
As most countries are unable to counter the "reciprocal tariffs," China and the EU's countermeasures have become the main force resisting U.S. hegemony, with China being the backbone of this resistance.
After several rounds of confrontation, the U.S. has raised tariffs on China to 145%, and China's retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. have reached 125%. This has essentially eliminated the possibility of normal trade, so China subsequently announced that it would no longer respond to potential further U.S. tariff increases.
On April 10, the U.S. suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries (excluding China), maintaining a 10% "base tariff" and initiating negotiations. U.S. stocks surged as a result, with Nasdaq experiencing its second-largest single-day gain in history.
China's seemingly passive behavior actually put enormous pressure on the United States. On the 12th, the U.S. exempted some Chinese goods from the 145% "reciprocal tariffs," including smartphones, tablets, laptops, semiconductors, integrated circuits, flash memory, and display modules.
China's countermeasures were not the only factor pushing the Trump administration into the "second phase." The strong "opposition" from U.S. political and business circles, as well as the stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange markets, also played a crucial role.
On Monday, April 7, the three major U.S. stock indices plummeted, reaching adjustment lows and entering or approaching a technical bear market. The next day, the VIX panic index reached a high of 52.33, the third peak since the 2008 subprime crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 crisis.
S&P 500 VIX IndexDuring the same period, short-term Treasury yields fell to 3.8310% on Thursday, while long-term Treasury yields rebounded sharply on Friday, closing at a high of 4.4950%.
U.S. 10-Year Treasury YieldAfter a massive sell-off in U.S. stocks, U.S. bond funds also joined the selling, and with capital fleeing the U.S. for Europe and other regions, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) also experienced a significant decline.
U.S. Dollar IndexThe "triple kill" of stocks, bonds, and exchange rates forced the Trump administration to release signals of tariff war easing and publish an exemption list. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve also released "dovish" signals. Boston Fed President Collins told the Financial Times in an interview on Friday that the Fed is "absolutely prepared" to use various tools to stabilize financial markets if necessary.
The tariff war's easing and the Fed's verbal market rescue temporarily calmed the U.S. financial markets. On Friday, the three major U.S. indices all ended the turbulent week with gains.
EMC Labs judges that as the U.S. reciprocal tariff war enters its second phase, market fear has somewhat subsided and is gradually beginning to bottom out. However, given the Trump administration's "irrationality" and the massive risks of U.S. economic recession and inflation (the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index continued to fall to 50.8 this week), a V-shaped reversal is a low-probability event.
Selling Pressure and Sell-offs
This week, selling pressure on both short and long chains has slightly weakened, somewhat stopping the panic selling of the past three weeks. The total on-chain selling volume for the week was 188,816.61 coins, with 178,263.27 from short-term holders and 10,553.34 from long-term holders. On the 7th and 9th, short-term holders again experienced significant losses in the global market panic.
Currently, long-term holders are still playing a stabilizing role, increasing holdings by nearly 60,000 coins this week, indicating that market liquidity remains quite scarce. By the end of the week, short-term holders were still experiencing a 10% floating loss, indicating that the market continues to face enormous pressure.
On-chain Market Floating Profit and Loss
Cycle Indicators
According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.125, indicating that the market is in an upward continuation period.
