Trading time: OM flash crash caused nearly 5.5 billion market value to evaporate, and BTC whale behavior was highly similar to the accumulation period in August-September last year

1. Market Observation

Keywords: OM, ETH, BTC

RWA sector project MANTRA (OM) plummeted this morning, with its price dropping from $6.35 to $0.38 in a short time, causing a market cap evaporation of over $5.5 billion. Facing market panic, the MANTRA team quickly issued a statement, attributing the decline to "irrational liquidation" and emphasizing that it is unrelated to the project's fundamentals. However, a deeper observation reveals that OM has experienced multiple violent surges since last November and has long been labeled a "pump and dump coin" in the community. Community analysis exposes numerous structural issues with MANTRA, including high centralized control, repeatedly modifying airdrop rules, and the team effectively controlling 90% of the supply. These factors lead to extremely low actual circulation, making the price easily manipulated and ultimately triggering this crash. Additionally, the $RFC token on the Solana chain has exceeded a market cap of $100 million, becoming the only meme coin to break the $100 million mark recently. The market has also seen derivative meme coins like $DB and $MUTUMBO, which was shilled by Ansen.

Despite increasing global market volatility, BTC whale investors have not withdrawn from the market. According to CryptoQuant's data analysis, the current behavior of BTC whales is highly similar to the accumulation phase during the sideways consolidation period of August-September last year, indicating that large funds are still strategically positioning themselves. Although the S&P volatility index has soared to its highest level since August last year, clearly showing increasing market uncertainty, the Bitcoin/VIX ratio has touched the long-term trend line support. Historical data suggests that whenever the Bitcoin/VIX ratio reaches this trend line, it often marks a stage-bottom for Bitcoin prices, followed by a significant rebound, providing technical support for the current market. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes boldly predicts that if the current market situation continues, Bitcoin might enter a "only-rising mode". Bitget Research Chief Analyst Ryan Lee predicts that BTC price may fluctuate between $80,000 and $85,000, advising traders to closely monitor macroeconomic conditions and capital flows. Notably, Mechanism Capital co-founder Andrew Kang recently went long on BTC with 40x leverage at the $77,000 price level, doubled his Bitcoin position to $200 million, and has already realized $6.8 million in profits.

In the regulatory realm, U.S. Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee Chairman Tim Scott recently released a positive signal, expecting the cryptocurrency market structure bill to become law by August 2025. He also noted that the Senate Banking Committee has advanced a comprehensive stablecoin regulatory bill—the GENIUS Act—in March 2025, indicating that U.S. legislators are prioritizing crypto policies. Additionally, Trump's weekend tariff exemption policy, especially for semiconductors and computer components, was interpreted by the market as a long-term positive for the crypto ecosystem. These core components are crucial for cryptocurrency mining, blockchain infrastructure construction, and the development of AI-based crypto tools. This policy indirectly boosted crypto market confidence, pushing Bitcoin prices to quickly recover to $85,900.

However, the global macroeconomic situation is facing significant challenges, with several Wall Street giants issuing warnings. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns that the U.S. may have already entered an economic recession, citing intensifying economic pressure and protectionist trade policies as primary drivers. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says he is preparing for potential chaos in the nearly $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market and expects the Federal Reserve to act only when the market begins to panic. According to U.S. Treasury data from January this year, Japan holds $1.079 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, ranking first, followed by China with $760.8 billion. Against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty, the gold market is performing brilliantly, with spot gold prices breaking historical highs at $3,245.45 per ounce. Major investment banks have raised gold price forecasts: Goldman Sachs expects year-end gold prices to reach $3,700, potentially even $4,500 in extreme scenarios; UBS has also raised its prediction to $3,500, believing Chinese investors have strong buying potential. As global order is restructured, continued central bank demand for gold will provide long-term support for gold prices.

2. Key Data (as of April 14, 12:00 HKT)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, GMGN, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $84,781.34 (YTD -9.58%), Daily spot trading volume $30.943 billion

• Ethereum: $1,637.32 (YTD -50.96%), Daily spot trading volume $14.762 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 31 (Fear)

• Average Gas: BTC 1.06 sat/vB, ETH 0.43 Gwei

• Market Dominance: BTC 62.6%, ETH 7.3%

• Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, AERGO, BTC, COW, ORCA

• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.0969

• Sector Performance: RWA sector down 44.62%, SocialFi sector down 1.89%

• 24-hour Liquidation Data: Globally 137,857 people liquidated, Total liquidation amount $334 million, BTC liquidation $87.13 million, ETH liquidation $56.75 million, OM liquidation $71.55 million

• BTC Medium-Long Term Trend Channel: Upper line ($83,334.67), Lower line ($81,684.48)

• ETH Medium-Long Term Trend Channel: Upper line ($1,682.34), Lower line ($1,649.02)

*Note: When price is above upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium-long term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost area, it represents a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of April 11 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$1.03 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$29.20 million

4. Today's Outlook

• KernelDAO announces TGE for KERNEL token

• Binance lists KERNEL and opens five trading pairs including KERNEL/USDT, applying seed label rules

• Layer1 blockchain Shardeum to launch mainnet on April 15

• Russian VK to close NFT platform on April 15, users need to migrate assets before this date

• WalletConnect to launch WCT token on April 15

• Sei (SEI) will unlock 22.5 million tokens worth approximately $38.5 million on April 15

• Solayer (LAYER) will unlock 48.15 million tokens worth approximately $67.7 million on April 15

• Starknet (STRK) will unlock 163 million tokens worth approximately $24.4 million on April 15

Today's Top 500 Market Cap Gainers: RFC up 87.42%, GODS up 82.64%, DOGINME up 33.16%, AERGO up 26.29%, ALCH up 20.23%.

5. Hot News

• Weekly Preview | Trump Token Worth $342 Million to Be Unlocked on April 18; Layer1 Blockchain Shardeum Launches Mainnet

• Data: FTN, CONX, QAI and Other Tokens to Face Large Unlocks Next Week, with FTN Unlock Valued at Around $81 Million

• Macro Outlook This Week: Trump "Messes Up", Federal Reserve Officials to Mobilize

• Bloomberg: Crypto Projects Involving Trump Family Show Total Gains Close to $1 Billion

• Analyst: BTC and VIX Ratio Hits Long-Term Trend Line, May Indicate BTC Has Bottomed

• BlackRock CEO: Economic Recession May Have Started, but New Liquidity Could Become Crypto Catalyst

• Santiment: Tariff Exemption Policy Triggers Positive Crypto Market Response, BTC Breaks $83,000 Resistance

• NFT Trading Volume Drops 4.7% to $94.7 Million in Past 7 Days, Buyers and Sellers Both Decline Over 70%

• US: Some Imported Chinese Products Exempted from "Reciprocal Tariffs", Including Smartphones, Some Computers and Laptops

• Analysis: BTC-Gold Relationship "Showing Cracks", Recent Weakness May Be Due to Market Digesting Positive Factors After $109,000 Peak

• Analyst: BTC May Fluctuate Between $80,000-$85,000, Should Closely Monitor Macro Economic Situation and Capital Flows

• Trump Token Worth $321 Million to Be Unlocked

• Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Outflow of $713 Million Last Week, BlackRock IBIT Leads with $342 Million Weekly Net Outflow

• Japanese Listed Company Metaplanet Announces Additional Purchase of 319 BTC

• A Whale/Institution Withdrew 15,953 ETH Worth $26.16 Million from OKX 5 Hours Ago

• US Listed Company Janover Adds 44,158 SOL, Total SOL Holdings Increase to 83,084

• Ethereum Foundation Member Shares Simplified Roadmap, Including Blob Expansion, L1 Expansion, UX Improvement

• At Least 17 Wallets Deposited 43.6 Million OM into Exchanges Before OM Crash, Accounting for 4.5% of Circulating Supply

• A Whale Sold 1.56 Million Fartcoins and Bought 11.62 Million RFC, Causing RFC Market Cap to Briefly Exceed $100 Million