- The actual long-term market Capital momentum of Bitcoin has recently touched a historical support level, signaling a potential major market shift.
- Market sentiment remains neutral while long-term investors face a crucial decision that could shape the direction of the second quarter.
Bitcoin [BTC] is at a critical crossroads. One of its most significant long-term indicators is approaching a historically meaningful level, keeping the market in anticipation.
The coming days could set the foundation for the future—whether it's the peak of a new price surge or the cliff of a deeper decline.
What do the data say?
The actual long-term market Capital momentum is a crucial indicator for measuring the confidence of long-term Bitcoin holders.
This index evaluates the momentum of actual market Capital, reflecting the movement of coins based on the most recent transaction price and adjusted according to long-term trends.
Historically, when this momentum touches lower support areas, it has been consistent with significant turning points in the price of Bitcoin.
Source: Alphractal
At the time of posting, the momentum was at a level that previously predicted significant market recovery in 2019 and late 2022. This pattern suggests that long-term holders are entering a critical decisive phase.
They will either hold firm, or the broader market story may begin to change.
Bounce or Break Structure?
The current situation presents two clear outcomes. If Bitcoin positively bounces from this support area, it could indicate that long-term investors are maintaining their positions, laying the groundwork for new accumulation and growth momentum.
Source: Alphractal
However, a breakdown at this level could signal a loss of confidence among the market's most persistent participants—those who typically absorb selling pressure rather than increase it. Such a change could trigger a more pronounced correction.
Considering the historical prediction of macro reversals by long-term momentum, its next movement could shape the trajectory for the upcoming quarter.
Bitcoin: Sentiment on the Edge
At the time of posting, the fear and greed index stood at 45, indicating a cautious neutral sentiment—slightly leaning towards fear but not yet panicked. This reflects an uncertain market still sensitive to potential catalysts.
The sentiment index clearly reflects the observed hesitation on the long-term momentum chart, emphasizing that Bitcoin is approaching a crucial decisive point.
Historically, sentiment often follows structural indicators, suggesting that the current calm could be a harbinger of a significant directional change. Whether this change becomes optimistic or pessimistic will largely depend on the actions of long-term holders at this critical moment.
