US President Trump temporarily suspended reciprocal tariffs for 75 countries for 90 days on the 9th. However, the United States and China continue to impose tariffs on each other, and the trade tensions between the two global powers continue to shake global markets. The latest data shows that US economic confidence has been severely hit, and inflation concerns are rising, with risk sentiment continuing to escalate.
According to the latest survey released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the US Consumer Confidence Index plummeted from 57.0 in March to 50.8 in April, the second-lowest since 1952, only higher than 50.0 in May 2022. The April index fell 10.9% from the previous month and 34.2% from the same month last year.
While consumer confidence is weak, inflation expectations are rapidly heating up. The one-year inflation expectation soared from 5% in March to 6.7% in April, reaching the highest level since November 1981. The 5-year inflation expectation rose to 4.4%, up 0.3% from March, the highest since June 1991.
Affected by this data, investors sold off US long-term government bonds and the US dollar, both typically seen as safe havens. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly broke through 4.55% on Friday, rising more than 50 basis points in a week, while the US dollar index fell below 100, hitting a three-year low.
US Stocks and Bitcoin Rise
However, due to Trump's optimistic attitude towards a trade agreement with China and the arrival of the first-quarter earnings season for major banks, the US stock market rose across the board on Friday:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 619.05 points or 1.56%, closing at 40,212.71 points.
- The Nasdaq Index rose 337.14 points or 2.06%, closing at 16,724.46 points.
- The S&P 500 Index rose 95.31 points or 1.81%, closing at 5,363.36 points.
- The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 97.61 points or 2.51%, closing at 3,990.90 points.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market also showed an upward trend. After Bitcoin fell below $79,000 on the 10th, it continued to rebound in recent days, reaching a high of $84,300 at 5 am this morning before slightly retreating. At the time of writing, it was trading at $83,198, with a 24-hour gain of 4%.
