The cryptocurrency market is experiencing an "altcoin season" that is no longer like before. In previous cycles, when Bitcoin increased in price, altcoins would also explode, pulling along most tokens. Now, the new market trend shows that those indiscriminate growth days are gradually disappearing.
Analysts predict a more selective altcoin cycle – "the era of everything rising is over." In an interview with BeInCrypto, Hitesh Malviya, founder of the DYOR crypto analysis tool, said that retail investors seeking the next big winner must adapt to these changing trends.
How to find potential altcoins in a volatile market
Traditionally, altcoin season meant a decrease in Bitcoin's dominance, and most altcoins would surge strongly. However, that widespread price increase may be ending.
"If the idea of a comprehensive altcoin season comes from previous cycles, that's something I really don't expect. What we've seen in altcoins is simply a boom and bubble burst that has occurred over two price increase cycles and two price decrease cycles," Malviya told BeInCrypto.
Market experts predict a more nuanced phase where only the strongest projects will develop. In short, instead of a price surge wave lifting all boats, the next altcoin season may prioritize quality (projects with actual use and revenue) over quantity.
Investors should focus on fundamental factors such as usage, revenue, and community development – the current market rewards real value more than hype. In fact, interest in speculative areas like speculative fields and meme coins has significantly decreased since the end of January 2025.
"The adoption curve will have a new upward shape, while the speculation curve will lose its attractiveness, introducing lower volatility in the market, providing more stable profits and making the market less stock-related. This will create a new type of asset in cryptocurrency, with two main asset types – encoded stocks with strong cash flow (e.g., AAVE) and value storage assets (BTC, ETH)," Malviya continued.
The power of cryptocurrency stories in the past 90 days. Source: DYORA primary reason for the development of the altcoin season is that liquidity currently revolves around different stories.
Liquidity flows towards attractive stories. There have been small cycles where certain themes explode – meme coins, AI tokens, DeFi projects, metaverse games, etc. Money chases a hot story, then moves to the next one.
Smart investors monitor social media, developer activity, and news to capture emerging stories early and participate before the crowd.
"Liquidity will always flow into different stories at different times, because there are many categories in cryptocurrency – similar to stocks, where some categories always outperform others. Similar market dynamics will also be seen in cryptocurrency," Malviya said.
How to find potential winners in the altcoin season? Identifying strength in a downward trend
Malviya believes investors should pay attention to altcoins showing relative strength during a recession. If an altcoin can maintain its value or even increase when Bitcoin declines, that resilience indicates strong demand (possibly early accumulation).
"At DYOR, we provide an index called Optimized Relative Strength, which helps track the best coins and stories that have shown the highest strength in the past 7, 30, and 90 days. Coins that have outperformed the overall market in the past 30 days have a great opportunity to increase in price when the market finds its bottom and starts a new surge," Malviya explained.
Top coins by Optimized Relative Strength in the past 7 days. Source: DYORMoreover, Malviya also discussed other fundamental indicators to track. These include:
- DEX Volume: Increasing trading volume on decentralized exchanges can drive the native token's price higher.
- Total Value Locked (TVL): Growth in deposits and total value locked indicates user confidence – positive for lending protocol tokens.
- Derivative Volume: Increasing on-chain trading activity means more traders and fees supporting its token.
- Oracle Total Value Secured (TVS): Increased total value secured by an oracle (e.g., Chainlink) shows greater dependence on it, driving token demand.
- DePIN Revenue: Actual revenue from a DePIN project (real service) shows a sustainable model, not just hype.
Furthermore, Malviya also emphasized a project's tokenomics. He believes that even an excellent project can fail if its tokenomics are problematic.
Tokenomics – the design of token supply and incentives can make or break an altcoin. Good tokenomics (fair distribution, strong utility) creates sustainable demand, while poor tokenomics (excessive inflation or continuous internal unlocking) often leads to project failure.
"Ideally, community funds and ecosystem should receive at least 60% of the supply to create real demand for the product by encouraging developers and users through planned token issuance at different stages. Tokens are truly created to drive real user demand for the product. They can be seen as bribes to attract user attention, but since these bribes can also be traded in the market, they can create a spillover effect that may lead to product failure. This happens because small retail investors' psychology typically combines both the product and token, and in most cases, the token price ultimately determines the product's level of acceptance," Malviya explained.
Finally, he shared tools that can help users find the next altcoin winner.
- DYOR – Users can use DYOR to find relative strength data on over 200+ coins, detailed tokenomics data on supply side for over 70+ coins, and fundamental data on 65+ coins, along with detailed research reports on top projects.
- DeFiLlama – Tracks multi-chain DeFi data like TVL and volume.
- Dune Analytics – A community-driven platform providing custom on-chain data dashboards.
"The community should learn to use DeFiLlama and DUNE dashboards to discover some interesting information. Most on-chain data is tracked on both platforms—all you need to do is find the right dashboard, note down various growth indicators you observe, and build your argument around a coin by using that data to achieve better validation," Malviya concluded.
Those with solid research have the best chance of catching the next altcoin season winner.
