据币安研究院，4 月 9 日美国长期国债收益率飙升，使 10 年期与 2 年期、30 年期与 2 年期国债利差扩大至 2022 年以来最高水平，引发全球市场担忧。尽管 3 年期国债拍卖需求疲软，但 10 年期国债拍卖反应积极，缓解部分压力，市场关注 30 年期拍卖结果。在需求不足推高收益率的背景下，套利交易面临平仓风险，日元走强或预示资金回流，波及加密资产。尽管加密市场相关性增强，但比特币波动性低...

<div>据币安研究院，4 月 9 日美国长期国债收益率飙升，使 10 年期与 2 年期、30 年期与 2 年期国债利差扩大至 2022 年以来最高水平，引发全球市场担忧。尽管 3 年期国债拍卖需求疲软，但 10 年期国债拍卖反应积极，缓解部分压力，市场关注 30 年期拍卖结果。在需求不足推高收益率的背景下，套利交易面临平仓风险，日元走强或预示资金回流，波及加密资产。尽管加密市场相关性增强，但比特币波动性低于预期，其与纳指的 14 天滚动贝塔值降至 0.26，显示相对稳定。此外，全球政策制定者可能加大流动性支持，若各国央行采取措施，或为加密市场提供支撑。未来需关注通胀数据、贸易谈判和债市波动。<br><br></div>

美债波动引发套利平仓风险，比特币展现相对稳定

According to Binance Research, on April 9th, the long-term U.S. Treasury bond yield surged, causing the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year, as well as 30-year and 2-year Treasury bonds, to expand to the highest level since 2022, triggering global market concerns. Despite weak demand in the 3-year Treasury bond auction, the 10-year Treasury bond auction showed a positive response, alleviating some pressure, with the market focusing on the 30-year auction results. Against the backdrop of insufficient demand pushing up yields, arbitrage trading faces liquidation risks, and the strengthening yen may signal capital inflows, potentially impacting crypto assets. Although the correlation in the crypto market has increased, Bitcoin's volatility remains low...

<div>According to Binance Research, on April 9th, the long-term U.S. Treasury bond yield surged, causing the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year, and 30-year and 2-year Treasury bonds to expand to the highest level since 2022, triggering global market concerns. Despite weak demand in the 3-year Treasury bond auction, the 10-year Treasury bond auction showed a positive response, alleviating some pressure, with market focus on the 30-year auction results. Against the backdrop of insufficient demand driving up yields, arbitrage trading faces liquidation risks, and the strengthening yen may signal capital inflows, potentially impacting crypto assets. Although crypto market correlation has increased, Bitcoin's volatility is lower than expected, with its 14-day rolling beta with the Nasdaq dropping to 0.26, indicating relative stability. Additionally, global policymakers may increase liquidity support, and if central banks take measures, it could provide support for the crypto market. Future attention should be paid to inflation data, trade negotiations, and bond market volatility.</div><br><br>

The volatility of US Treasury bonds triggers the risk of arbitrage liquidation, while Bitcoin shows relative stability

Mars Finance News, on April 11, according to <TheBlock>, the year-on-year CPI increase for March dropped to 2.1%, creating the largest monthly decline since 2020, providing space for the Federal Reserve's potential policy shift in May. BRN analyst Valentin Fournier noted, "Easing inflation pressure might prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and relax financial conditions. After yesterday's CPI data release, Bitcoin stabilized at $80,000, but spot ETF experienced its sixth consecutive day of net capital outflow, marking the longest outflow since February, reflecting market difficulty in maintaining bullish momentum. However, the positive aspect is that Wall Street crypto funds may be about to welcome a capital inflow, with multiple favorable factors converging, including inflation cooling, tariff peaks, and regulatory relaxation expectations from the new SEC Chairman Paul Atkins." 

While the market digests inflation-related good news, the US bond market is sending alerts. The US 10-year Treasury yield broke through 4.5%, reaching a new high since 2022. As bond yield and price have an inverse relationship, the yield surge reflects investors' deep concerns about government debt repayment capabilities. Douro Labs CEO Mike Cahill stated via email: "The complex landscape of low inflation data, bond market collapse, and 90-day tariff suspension exposes structural imbalances in the global economic system."

Despite the Trump administration's announcement of a 90-day tariff suspension, market concerns remain unresolved. Amberdata Research Director Mike Marshall pointed out: "The soothing effect of tariff suspension is severely overestimated, and the current trade war intensity continues to escalate. This policy uncertainty is reshaping capital flows, and long-term predictions suggest funds will shift from fragile bond markets to digital asset domains with practical utility and programmable stability."

Facing the dual signals of inflation cooling and bond market crisis, the Federal Reserve's decision-making is wavering. BRN analyst Valentin Fournier believes short-term pain might be exaggerated, and trade tensions have positive negotiation spaces, with potential breakthrough in the coming weeks. However, the market is more focused on structural changes—the policy orientation of the new SEC chairman might become a critical variable, and if the promised "crypto-friendly regulatory framework" is implemented as expected, it could inject institutional confidence into the crypto asset market.

Analyst: Short-term market pain may be exaggerated, pay attention to the policy direction of the new SEC chairman

According to previous predictions, the U.S. stock market will experience at least a 20% pullback, pulling Bitcoin prices back to around $50,000. The first target has been achieved: due to Trump's implementation of stricter tariffs on many other countries, the U.S. stock market underwent a 20% pullback when the VIX index was around 55. Bitcoin prices once dropped to $74,000...

Author: <DeFi Cheetah>, Crypto KOL
Translator: <Felix>, <PANews>

It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before June, followed by a rebound in the U.S. stock market and crypto market.

Viewpoint: Why should we be optimistic about the medium- and long-term trend of the crypto market?

Table of Contents
- Capital Fleeing the United States
- Who is Challenging the US Dollar Hegemony?
- Wall Street Debate: Who is Selling US Bonds?
- Japanese Officials Clarify No Selling
- Opponents of the China Selling Theory
- Technical Deleveraging Selling Pressure
- Conclusion: Market is Stress Testing US Credit
U.S. Treasuries have long been revered by global investors as a benchmark, serving as a reliable safe haven for funds during turbulent times, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and were considered extremely reliable "risk-free" assets. However, in recent times, during the presidency of Donald <Donald Trump>...

Trump's tariffs have shattered the "safe haven myth" of U.S. debt. A quick guide: Wall Street considers it a "risky asset". Are China and Japan the culprits of the dumping?