1. Market Observation
Keywords: Tariffs, ETH, BTC
After a brief rebound, the US stock market plunged into panic again, with the three major indices falling over 5% at one point on Thursday. The S&P 500 nearly triggered a circuit breaker, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted by over 1,000 points. Amid this market uncertainty, investors flocked to safe-haven assets, pushing gold prices above $3,210 per ounce, hitting a historic high. The domestic gold jewelry market followed suit, with most gold shops' prices surpassing 990 yuan per gram, approaching the 1,000 yuan per gram mark. Peter Schiff, founder of Euro Pacific Capital, argued that the Trump administration's tariff policies would not solve problems but instead exacerbate trade deficits. In an uncertain economic landscape, gold as an alternative to "sound money" is attracting increasing investor attention.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market faces severe challenges. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin has fallen below several key technical indicators, including the 111-day moving average ($93K) and 200-day moving average ($87K), even briefly touching the 365-day moving average ($76K). Currently, Bitcoin price fluctuates between $131K and $72K, approaching the lower limit of $72K. Glassnode analysts worry that breaking this level could trigger investor confidence collapse and further price decline. Despite short-term market pressure, some optimistic factors remain. QCP Capital notes that investors are still purchasing $100,000 call options for December, indicating market hope for Bitcoin returning to $100,000 by year-end. Additionally, market trading activity has significantly decreased. CryptoQuant data reveals that Bitcoin spot trading volume dropped from $44 billion in early February to $10 billion by the end of Q1, a 77% decline. Altcoin trading volume shrank even more, from $122 billion to $23 billion, over an 80% drop, suggesting investors are reducing participation due to market uncertainty.
On the regulatory front, the US SEC approved spot ETF options trading for Ethereum, involving institutional products from BlackRock, Bitwise, and Grayscale. The SEC also released guidelines for crypto asset market securities issuance and registration disclosure, providing guidance to clarify federal securities law applicability in the crypto asset market. This covers equity and debt securities related to networks, applications, and crypto assets, including disclosure requirements for crypto assets as part of investment contracts. Additionally, Trump has signed a joint congressional resolution formally rescinding the IRS crypto tax rule (DeFi broker rule) from the late Biden administration, which would have required "custodial brokers" to collect and report user data to tax authorities. According to Solid Intel, 100 publicly listed companies globally now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, spanning cryptocurrencies, mining, tech, media, energy, finance, and healthcare industries.
From a macro perspective, market concerns about a US economic recession are intensifying. Goldman Sachs' latest report suggests the stock market bear market might last longer, with the current tariff-driven event-driven bear market easily evolving into a cyclical bear market. Bridgewater Fund founder Ray Dalio warns that Trump's tariff policies have caused "permanent damage," with US bond anomalies exposing capital flight signs. He asserts "someone is definitely being liquidated" and emphasizes that "another terrifying market trend will emerge." Federal Reserve officials have also expressed concerns. Boston Fed President Collins noted that tariff-induced inflation might delay further interest rate cuts, with her staff estimating that effective tariffs over 10% on imported goods could increase the Fed's preferred core inflation metric by 0.7 to 1.2 percentage points. Former US Treasury Secretary Summers also warned that the US might be heading towards economic recession, potentially causing 2 million Americans to lose jobs, with each household facing at least $5,000 in income loss. Amid this uncertainty, investors are moving away from US assets towards safe-haven assets like gold, Swiss francs, and the Japanese yen.
(Translation continues in the same manner for the rest of the document)White House: Tariff Levels to Decrease to a General 10% During Negotiations
Binance Wallet to Host Mind Network (FHE) Token Generation Event
Fetch.ai Team Address Transfers 15 Million FET Again, Suspected Selling/Market Making via DWF Labs
Tether Treasury Increases 1 Billion USDT on Tron Chain, Totaling 8 Billion USDT Issued This Year
Glassnode: If BTC Breaks Below $72,000, May Face Greater Downside Risk
