Policy Abrupt Turn, from Extreme Pressure to Strategic Compromise
Trump had repeatedly emphasized applying extreme pressure on trade partners through "reciprocal tariffs" in recent weeks, with White House top officials hinting that this strategy would force countries to make substantial concessions in negotiations. However, in just one night, the policy direction shifted from comprehensive tariff escalation to suspension and reducing tax rates to 10%, catching global markets off guard. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent subsequently explained that this move was not a surrender to market pressure, but to create a time window for subsequent negotiations; Commerce Secretary Lutnick optimistically stated that "the world is ready to cooperate with Trump".
Market interpretations varied. Many believed this was a pragmatic adjustment to financial market pressure; others argued that this strategic "sudden brake" was merely a delaying tactic and could not change his unpredictable policy style.
U.S. Stocks Record Rebound, Cryptocurrencies Soar
After the tariff suspension news was released, global markets quickly responded. The three major U.S. stock indices achieved rare single-day gains: the Dow Jones surged 7.87%, its largest single-day increase since March 25, 2020; S&P 500 rose 9.52%, its best single-day performance since 2008; Nasdaq index jumped 12.16%, recording its second-largest single-day increase since January 2001. Tech stocks performed exceptionally, with the seven giants' index soaring 14%, with total market value increasing by $1.85 trillion in a single day.
Simultaneously, the cryptocurrency market also experienced a surge, with investor panic quickly reversing. Bitcoin rose 8.25% in a single day, Ethereum broke through $1,680, with an increase of nearly 14.6%, and other Altcoins generally saw significant gains, with total crypto market value growing 9% within 24 hours.
A New Turning Point or Prelude to Greater Chaos?
Despite the market surge, institutional concerns have not disappeared. Currently, most analysts generally believe that this "probationary" tariff policy has not truly eliminated uncertainty and may instead bring more chaos, even being viewed as a political expedient rather than a rational economic decision. Many Wall Street traders frankly stated: market rises and falls have become subsidiary to the president's mood, and we are essentially trading "Trump options" whose price trends depend on whether Trump will suddenly overturn the previous day's policy when he wakes up.
Negotiations around tariffs still involve enormous uncertainty, and the business community also faces challenges. Lacking policy consistency and certainty forces many companies to suspend plans and reassess supply chain costs and revenue impacts. This means U.S. stocks may continue to experience high volatility.
Morgan Stanley monitoring data shows that institutional investors are adjusting their portfolio structures, allocating more funds to safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. This defensive layout indicates that professional investors maintain a cautious attitude towards the future market.
Trump's "Elasticity" and Market Fragility
Trump's policy abrupt turn demonstrates the high "elasticity" of his decision-making and again exposes the fragility of global capital markets. In the short term, investors might enjoy the dividends brought by this policy relaxation; in the long term, when market trends depend on Trump's next tweet or sudden decision, this market driven by typical "emotional trading" is destined to be unsustainable.
In the next 90 days, global attention will focus on Trump's negotiation strategy and subsequent policy developments. For investors, this is not just a capital game, but a psychological contest against uncertainty. Caution may be the most rational choice at present.
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