Article source: Talk Li Talk Outside
This morning (Beijing time, April 10th), the market rebounded again, and everyone probably knows what happened because the American tariff policy has changed again. Trump announced that over 75 countries have contacted the United States hoping to negotiate and have not taken retaliatory actions. He has authorized the measure to be suspended for 90 days, only imposing a 10% reciprocal tariff (with China being the only exception, with the tariff rate on China increasing from 104% to 125%). As shown in the image below.
Influenced by Trump's policy news, US stocks began to quickly rebound and rise. Meanwhile, the crypto market also experienced a corresponding rebound, as shown in the image below.
In the previous article (April 7th), we mainly discussed Trump's tariff policy from a tax perspective and mentioned that the market seems to be completely controlled by Trump's policies. Today's market trend shows that Trump's influence is still significant.
One Trump, one Powell (Federal Reserve), these two old men directly influence the global financial market trends. For most retail investors who have lost money (or have floating losses) due to recent market volatility, they probably only want to say: these bad old men.
1. Review of Trump's Tariff Policy
Next, we'll briefly review Trump's series of operations on tariff issues since the beginning of this year (US Eastern Time):
February 1st, Trump announced a 25% tariff on most goods from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.
February 3rd, Trump announced a 30-day postponement of tariff measures on Canada and Mexico.
February 4th, US tariff policy on China officially took effect.
February 24th, Trump announced the resumption of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican manufactured goods on March 4th, including a 25% tariff on most products and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports. He also canceled the duty-free treatment for low-value goods under $800 for these two countries.
February 27th, Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on all imported Chinese manufactured goods on March 4th (raising the total tariff rate to 20%).
March 4th: The US officially imposed a 25% tariff on most goods from Canada and Mexico (with exemptions for some goods). Officially imposed a 20% tariff on all Chinese imports.
April 2nd, Trump announced a minimum 10% base tariff on all imported US goods (involving over 100 countries and regions) from April 5th. An additional 34% tariff on China from April 9th (stacking with the previous 20% tariff, totaling 54%).
April 5th (00:01 AM), the US 10% global tariff on related countries officially took effect.
April 9th (00:01 AM), the US higher "reciprocal tariff" for specific countries officially took effect, with the total tariff on Chinese imports reaching 104%.
April 9th (around 1 PM): Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs for multiple countries, only implementing a 10% base tariff, excluding China (while increasing tariffs on China to 125%).
We've just listed the rough timeline of tariff wars. Everyone can compare the corresponding market price trends, especially for topics involving negotiations between two major countries, which seem sensitive, so we won't discuss it further.
Negotiations will probably happen sooner or later, and perhaps representatives are already secretly negotiating. It's just about finding a suitable way down. Trump, as a businessman, will never suffer a loss, and the other side probably just wants to save face.
2. What Should We Do Now?
Yesterday, some friends asked: How should we handle the current market situation? Should we sell some of our positions?
This question actually has no standard answer. Everyone's situation is different, mainly depending on your holding cost. Since Trump's tariff policy is always wavering, the short-term market seems unpredictable and may be accompanied by continuous intense fluctuations.
If your current position severely affects your sleep and you're still fully invested, you can consider appropriately reducing positions to maintain some liquidity and reduce anxiety. Additionally, this depends on your time expectations. No market always rises, and no market always falls. Currently, there are basically 3 approaches:
One is to ignore short-term fluctuations and continue buying at low points to accumulate more quality assets, like BTC, and hold long-term. (Measured in years)
Two is to partially reduce positions based on overall portfolio, holding cost, and risk tolerance while maintaining some liquid funds to observe. (Measured in quarters)
Three is to use market fluctuations to find swing trading opportunities, but the relative risk is higher and may require time, effort, and skills. (Measured in days)
Or, as we mentioned in previous articles: if you don't know what to do, the best action is "no action".
In any case, our advice for most ordinary investors remains unchanged: always ensure 10-20% of positions as liquid funds and always invest with a comfortable position size. For long-term investments, just focus on the asset (like Bitcoin) and don't worry too much about short-term price fluctuations. For short-term investments, plan your maximum acceptable drawdown in advance and strictly implement take-profit and stop-loss strategies to avoid getting deeper.
3. A Simple Chat About Crypto Market
Recently, everyone has been focusing on Trump's tariffs and hoping the Federal Reserve will take substantial actions... Various spectators, observers, critics, and global situation discussants... As for the crypto market itself, there seem to be no hot topics, or people have basically stopped paying attention to or discussing specific crypto projects.
Although many people say it's a full bear market, regardless of others' views, from a longer-term perspective for Bitcoin, we still believe it's bullish, and the current position of $76,000 looks like a good support. As shown in the image below.
In simple terms, from a weekly perspective, we still have the possibility (with a certain probability) of welcoming a good new opportunity this year.
However, in the short term (daily level), due to continued uncertainty in Trump's policies, we may experience further volatility and oscillation, theoretically possibly lasting 2-3 months or even longer, depending on whether any new black swan events occur. As for how far Bitcoin might retrace during this process - whether to $72,000, $68,000, or the $55,000 some KOLs mention - we don't know.
We believe that the core issue in the current market is still a liquidity problem, meaning that in the next few months, the market may continue to face liquidity constraints unless the Federal Reserve can take direct practical actions. This liquidity shortage is actually caused by comprehensive reasons, such as the US tax filing season in April (US taxpayers must declare the previous year's income before April 15), which may lead to selling pressure, the urgent need to resolve the US government's debt ceiling issue (the federal government may be unable to pay bills as early as August), and the increasing probability of a US economic recession (JPMorgan Chase has raised the US economic recession probability to 60%)...
At this point, some readers might ask, didn't you say in the previous article that M2 is currently in a growth state, so why are you now saying there's a liquidity shortage?
Here, we need to make a simple supplementary explanation. M2 refers to the broad money supply, a macroeconomic indicator measuring the total amount of currency (fiat), mainly including cash in circulation, demand deposits, and savings deposits. A higher M2 indicates more money, and more money usually represents global liquidity, but abundant liquidity does not necessarily mean that these funds will be immediately injected into the market. In other words, M2 is a static quantity, while liquidity is dynamic.
In the previous article (April 1st), we mainly used the trend of Global M2 to speculate on Bitcoin's possible future direction, as shown in the following image.
To summarize simply, we can use the Global M2 indicator to predict (speculate) Bitcoin's potential trend, meaning that as long as M2 rises, BTC will likely rise as well (with some time lag).
Moreover, the Global M2 indicator is more suitable for observing BTC's trend and less applicable for directly assessing Altcoins. The current Altcoin situation is quite special, such as the excessive number of Altcoin projects (refer to our previous Altcoin season topic series). If you hope to see more Altcoin opportunities, you might need to observe larger-scale or level market liquidity changes, such as the Federal Reserve actually starting to cut rates, bringing about liquidity spillover effects.
If our previous article's assumption still holds, or if you believe in this point, then whether it's the current Bitcoin at $82,000 or potentially continuing to drop to the 70,000s or even 60,000s, you can still consider accumulating in batches within the current oscillation range.
Of course, this accumulation is just Plan A. To cope with potential market changes, you also need to have a Plan B prepared. That is, if during the execution of Plan A, the market experiences a new black swan event or massive change, such as a crossover of the 21 and 55-week lines in the K-line chart, completely turning into a bear market, you must be mentally prepared to continue holding for several more years.
As for our own plan, we will continue to maintain our original strategy, which is to keep holding Bitcoin. The selling plan will strictly follow the predetermined target for batch reduction. So far, we have only executed one selling operation in December of last year (2024). The new round of dollar-cost averaging buy-in plan, we will tentatively consider or execute in the third or fourth quarter of next year (2026), which we have shared multiple times in previous articles and will not elaborate on here.
2025 seems pessimistic so far, but this year is destined to be extraordinary. Global situations are changing, macro cycles are shifting. If you can endure this winter, you will have the opportunity to see the vitality of the next spring.
Article source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2iWRLeXCNI9coPZHT0FwTQ
