U.S. President Trump suddenly announced a suspension of reciprocal tariffs on non-retaliatory countries at local time on April 9, and this "lightning-fast change" not only caught Wall Street analysts off guard but also triggered a massive wave in the global capital markets.
Global Market Retaliatory Rebound
The policy shift stimulated a collective rebound in global risk assets. The cryptocurrency market responded most rapidly, with Bitcoin's price surging 8% within an hour after the announcement, briefly breaking through the $83,000 mark. Other mainstream cryptocurrencies rebounded even more strongly, with XRP and Solana both rising over 11%.
Traditional financial markets also welcomed a long-awaited celebration. The S&P 500 index soared 9.5% in a single day, marking the largest single-day increase since the 2008 financial crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index also rose 8.2% and 10.1% respectively. Cryptocurrency-related stocks performed particularly brilliantly, with Coinbase's stock price surging 17% and MicroStrategy rising 24%.
Trump had maintained a tough stance for the past two weeks, and no one expected such a quick turnaround, which demonstrates Trump's policy "elasticity" far beyond market expectations and reflects the global capital's extreme sensitivity to changes in Trump's trade policies.
Analysts Revise Reports Overnight
This dramatic change caught many Wall Street analysts off guard, forcing them to modify research reports overnight. Goldman Sachs urgently adjusted its economic forecast within just one hour, reducing the probability of a U.S. economic recession in the next 12 months from 65% to 45%, setting a record for the fastest correction on Wall Street.
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius explained in the updated report: "We previously made recession predictions based on the assumption of comprehensive tariff increases, but now the policy environment has changed." However, the bank remains cautious, expecting U.S. GDP growth to potentially slow to 0.5% in 2025.
Mixed Reactions on Wall Street
Wall Street quickly formed two distinct camps. Pershing Square Capital Management's Bill Ackman praised the decision in three consecutive tweets, calling it a "textbook case of contemporary trade negotiations". This typically cautious hedge fund manager unusually expressed optimism, with his fund immediately adding $1.2 billion in industrial stocks.
However, "Bond King" Bill Gross held a completely opposite view, warning in an investment memo: "When market fluctuations become subordinate to presidential moods, we are essentially trading 'Trump options'. This is directly reflected in market data: Goldman Sachs detected hedge funds frantically buying volatility derivatives for hedging."
Ben Kurland, CEO of cryptocurrency research platform DYOR, analyzed: "Trump's 90-day tariff suspension is a strategic breathing opportunity - he has alleviated short-term market pressure without giving up his chips, clearly showing his approach is transactional, not ideological. This move reassured investors' nervous sentiment and brought temporary stability to businesses, but the time is not long enough to promote real supply chain transformation or investment decisions."
Market analysts repeatedly warned investors to stay clear-headed. Zach Pandl, Research Director at Grayscale, pointed out: "Short-term volatility cannot mask structural risks, and fundamental issues such as weak dollar, high inflation, and supply chain restructuring remain unresolved."
Morgan Stanley's monitoring data shows that institutional investors are adjusting their portfolio structures, allocating more funds to safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. This defensive layout indicates that professional investors maintain a cautious attitude towards the future market.
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