If Trump restores global tariffs or introduces secondary tariffs after 90 days, the market will face greater volatility. Global supply chains will be under pressure, risk appetite will decline, and US stocks may rise and then fall. Trump may use this to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, cushioning economic slowdown. However, the US bond market is already in crisis: the allocation ratio for 3-year auctions is only 6.2%, and if the 10-year yield breaks through 5%, it could trigger a stock and bond massacre. Reuters reported that the Bank of Japan said on April 10 that reducing US debt holdings was preparation for exchange rate intervention, but this did not quell market panic. If tariffs escalate, Bitcoin may be under short-term pressure, but may recover in the medium term due to easing expectations.
Bitcoin Trend - Short-term and Medium-term Opportunities
Based on the above analysis, Bitcoin's trend is staged as follows:
Short-term (days to weeks)
The current US stock strength provides a window for Bitcoin to catch up. glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's on-chain transaction volume surged 20% on April 10, with short-term holders' activity increasing. If the Nasdaq maintains its high position, fund rotation may push Bitcoin to a 10%-12% increase, with $84,700 as a potential target. However, if Trump's intent is interpreted as a "delaying tactic", market doubts will deepen, and the catch-up may be limited. If a strong Taker Sell emerges, pushing the price below $81,200, or as Mr. Baer suggests, triggering a short-term pullback risk. If US stocks fall 3%-5%, Bitcoin may "draw a door", and insufficient liquidity may struggle to support a significant rise.
Medium-term (90-day window)
The key lies in the negotiation results. If tariffs are only imposed on China, Bitcoin will oscillate with limited macroeconomic improvement. If comprehensive tariffs or secondary tariffs are implemented, market turmoil will intensify, with short-term pressure, but its price may be supported if the Federal Reserve is forced to cut rates. The BitMEX research team predicts that if tariffs escalate, Bitcoin may briefly drop to $80,000, then rebound due to easing expectations. Without a phenomenal positive catalyst, the lower level of $74,400 may still be reached.
Conclusion: Catch-up Possible, but Caution Advised
Bitcoin's "stalling" in this rebound stems from the uncertainty of Trump's policy and lack of market trust. If his intent is only targeted at China, the avoidance effect will weaken the impact, and the catch-up space will be limited; if it's a delaying tactic to create volatility, force rate cuts, and impose comprehensive tariffs, there may be momentum after short-term fluctuations. Currently, the latter seems more likely, but the catch-up within 90 days is constrained by liquidity and sentiment. Mr. Baer's cautious attitude reminds us to closely watch signals like Taker Sell and avoid blindly chasing highs. Investors should be wary of Trump's "market manipulation" and instead of pursuing short-term gains, wait for the negotiation results and US debt trends. Bitcoin's medium-term opportunity depends on the next move in this game.
