Yesterday, the US stock market started well, but later Trump clearly stated that he would not relax tariff policies and said that no other countries could negotiate before the US implements reciprocal tariffs on April 9th. As soon as this news came out, market confidence plummeted, and US stocks ultimately closed lower.
What truly panicked the market was the decline in US Treasury bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.5%, and typically, US Treasuries are a safe-haven asset where money flows during stock market declines. However, now both stocks and US Treasuries are falling, indicating that funds are beginning to panic, liquidity is tight, and everyone is frantically hoarding cash.
This "cash is king" situation last occurred on March 12, 2020 (the "312" day), when US stocks plummeted and Bitcoin dropped directly from 7,700 to 3,800, essentially halving in value, with the crypto market suffering massive losses. The current market atmosphere is truly reminiscent of a "312" replay.
Last time, the Federal Reserve held an emergency meeting and immediately cut rates by 50 basis points to rescue the market; this time, Powell appears very calm, seemingly waiting for the market to decline further before intervening. We retail investors can only silently bear the pressure.
Therefore, at this moment, absolutely avoid leveraged contracts, as market sentiment is too unstable, with directions changing multiple times a day, and bad luck could result in being "killed on both long and short sides".
Additionally, since last night, major financial institutions have significantly raised their expectations of a US economic recession:
JPMorgan Chase: Previously saying the US had a 60% chance of recession, now directly raising it to 80%.
Former US Treasury Secretary Summers: Tariffs might cause US economic recession, potentially increasing unemployment by 2 million, with US stocks possibly crashing.
Goldman Sachs: Directly shouting "bear market is here", saying this US stock bear market might last two years, with a return to current levels taking at least five years.
BlackRock CEO: More directly stating the US might already be in recession, Trump's tariff policies will worsen inflation, delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, and might even force rate hikes.
Even the Fed's "official mouthpiece" Nick admits that Powell is now in the most challenging situation since taking office, unable to balance both inflation and employment.
However, the market still holds hope for rate cuts:
Yesterday, the probability of a May rate cut dropped to over 30%, but today rebounded to 53%. CME even predicts the Federal Reserve might cut rates 4-5 times this year (totaling 100-125 basis points).
If rate cuts truly occur, combined with tariff issues subsiding, the crypto market might welcome a "rate cut bull market" in the second half of the year, worth paying attention to.
Lastly, many things are not included here, such as specific opportunities and decisions, which often cannot be summarized in a single article.
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